Down goes the Dow

I have watched several livestreams about Russia "invading" Ukraine.

Nothing happening on any of them.

Why?

"i did wHat I COulD TO wARn YoU"

lol yeah sorry I didn't take your expert opinion on the situation seriously. I bet you really impress the teenagers with that edge

I know I always get my intel from webcams. Tactically indispensable—for skiing, at least😂

OK millennial.

OK dipsh!t

Lol Racket, some people have just lived longer.

Don’t forget your prayer beads today. Remember, “markets only go up”.

I could see gov market intervention today, because this is disorderly. Too fast, and too deep. Hello continued inflation

No need to be sorry, btw. Nobody expects anybody to take the views of an anonymous message board poster seriously. Sometimes, though, somebody does know something, and there's never any real way to tell. No harm, no foul. I'm wrong on many things, and I am an idiot when it comes to money. It makes no difference to me at all one way or another whether you ever take me seriously on anything. In this instance, though, whether you think it was by luck or accident, I did give the group information I thought would be useful to you all and that turned out to be good. Did I know something you all didn't know? Who can say.

Idiot,

I kind of imagined your experiences to follow a similar path. Nevertheless, very interesting to read some of the details of your earlier career.

Igy

Good chance I will buy a bit more aapl...watching...

Some people are just obnoxious town criers, "but actually I'm just an idiot, (but actually I fancy myself a genius because I have a tattoo of Fermat's Last Theorem on my ass (but no really I'm an idiot (but seriously, I'm a genius)))"

Stocks only go up. Russia is about as relevant to the world economy as my mid-week long run.

Being "correct" does not infer knowledge.

See also - the reason Igy gets no "kudos" in a market correction. Even though he may be "correct" about it occurring, he does not actually understand why and so it is not justifiable or appropriate

Where's la gente, he always comes to my rescue

Russia is very relevant to China, and China is very relevant to the world economy.

China won't do sh!t and they compete with Russia for spheres of influence in Central Asia anyways. They have way more to gain by watching the Russian economy turn into South Dakota than they do by helping them

Has there ever been a time where markets weren't higher a year later, after buying at VIX 37?

I doubt it.

This is gut check time - those who say they buy when blood is on the streets....this is it. VIX has only been this high a handful of times in recent history. COVID, GFC, whatever happened in September 2011. Was that Greece?

I'll be selling bonds and buying stocks today.

Good chance I will be adding to various short positions. :-)

Kind of like everything in your short life Racket. Magic dollars will fall from the sky to cover all your naive mistakes. :-)

I think maybe it's time to retire the "idiot" name as that seems to be a little off-putting. Maybe I'll explain (again I think?) why I first chose that name, and then move on with this new name which better reflects my current status.

I chose the name "idiot" as being intentionally (and I thought, but perhaps not, obviously) ironic. I obviously don't consider myself generally to be an idiot. I also don't consider myself to be a genius. I do have at least average intelligence, plus a lot of education and some decent experience, and I'm paid fairly well for what I do, as some people see value in my professional opinions (which have nothing to do with finances). Which makes me a pretty "normal" professional I think. Smart enough to make a comfortable living, neither an idiot nor a genius.

The name idiot is meant as an avatar for the character I'm trying to play as representing my view of all of us; none of whom (I believe) actually know anything useful (i.e., valuable in arbitrage) about what the markets are going to do on any hour, day, week, month or year. Or at least don't know any better than the proverbial dart-throwing monkey. This is because I believe that the markets are entirely chaotic and almost entirely unpredictable, with a few key exceptions that are unimportant because they don't offer any advantage.

But I am nearly retired from paid work, and now fully retired from my brief LRC career as an idiot. I'll try my best not to call myself one anymore. But rest assured, I will still think each one of us remains an idiot, when it comes to declaring cause and effect in financial markets. :-)

I already told you that there was, way back in 2008 to 2010.