Full fledged invasion of Ukraine and the first Fed rate hike should get us to 3,800. Play for a 5% rebound there, followed by a resumption of the Wild Rumpus.
Well, I have been waiting for some sort of bump to dump my insane trbcx, and I haven’t gotten one. idk how you guys buy and hold this stuff.
Should I just sell it? What say you? It is probably down about 20-25% at this point, not sure.
Nobody ever agrees when I say this, but my advice is to forget what you paid for a stock the moment you bought it. At any given time (now for instance), the only thing that matters is what will happen to its value in the future; measuring in relation to some time in the past is meaningless, except in relation to the past. Your best move with that investment depends on your belief about its value in the future.
Yeah idiot, the thing is that it’s not a stock, it’s a tech megacap-heavy mutual fund. I don’t have a good idea of where it will be 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 5 years from now.
Most every factor that was a tailwind the last five years is now a headwind. Many of the gods of mega cap growth will go the way of ARKK stocks, down 60% from the highs.
Mas, can you sell a little of it with the notion that more could be sold later as well, if need be?
I always look at these things in degrees of certainty and adjust accordingly. Remember, you can always sell more later or buy back if sentiment changes.
Well, I have been waiting for some sort of bump to dump my insane trbcx, and I haven’t gotten one. idk how you guys buy and hold this stuff.
Should I just sell it? What say you? It is probably down about 20-25% at this point, not sure.
Nobody ever agrees when I say this, but my advice is to forget what you paid for a stock the moment you bought it. At any given time (now for instance), the only thing that matters is what will happen to its value in the future; measuring in relation to some time in the past is meaningless, except in relation to the past. Your best move with that investment depends on your belief about its value in the future.
$0.02 please
some excellent advice. Another way to put it is: let's say you had $5000 in a stock thatis down 20%. If you had $5000 in your checking account would you use it to buy that stock today? If not, sell it. (tax considerations can bugger this method but only a little)
the heck is wrong with you people? Long term investors love corrections.
or wait... you think it's different this time. With the forward PE at just 18.
I mean does anyone even remember any of these recent corrections? Other than 2020? I don't. Euro debt crisis...I honestly can't remember any of the others. Ben Carlson @awealthofcs · 3h Every S&P 500 correction since 2009: -16.0% -19.4% -13.3% -10.2% -19.8% -33.9% -11.9% (this one) Every time felt like the world was about to unravel at any moment This one feels like that right now too Someday it's not going to feel like that anymore (I don't know when)
the heck is wrong with you people? Long term investors love corrections.
or wait... you think it's different this time. With the forward PE at just 18.
I mean does anyone even remember any of these recent corrections? Other than 2020? I don't. Euro debt crisis...I honestly can't remember any of the others. Ben Carlson @awealthofcs · 3h Every S&P 500 correction since 2009: -16.0% -19.4% -13.3% -10.2% -19.8% -33.9% -11.9% (this one) Every time felt like the world was about to unravel at any moment This one feels like that right now too Someday it's not going to feel like that anymore (I don't know when)
This isn't even the first time Russia has tried to go all in on Ukraine. They threatened some pseudo-blockade or something in 2017 and Ukraine declared martial law (I think, maybe I'm misremembering).
SPY had a record bad beginning of the year in I believe 2016 and oil prices spiked, Euro debt crisis, the first time the government shut down, interest rates going up in 2018.
This is like the 13th "end of the world" I've heard declared since 2009.
I'm putting a note in my calendar for 2/23/23. with this page number.
90% probability that the market is higher then.
I don’t disagree too strongly with that, but I might aim closer to 50-50, with a decent chance of valuations being a good chunk lower than today still. We are all guessing and trying our best to tell ourselves a story based on signals we think we see in past market behaviour, but at the end of the dat we are still all only just guessing. The baseline assumption that stocks always go up is in fact true most of the time. Me, I still think war in Europe, or whatever we’re calling it, creates some strong head winds, and there’s a much better chance than usual of a continued big decline.
I know I’m being a dog with a bone on this. I don’t know what the markets will do, but I think sure as $hit the situation in Europe will get much worse before it gets better. You heard it here first…
the heck is wrong with you people? Long term investors love corrections.
or wait... you think it's different this time. With the forward PE at just 18.
I mean does anyone even remember any of these recent corrections? Other than 2020? I don't. Euro debt crisis...I honestly can't remember any of the others. Ben Carlson @awealthofcs · 3h Every S&P 500 correction since 2009: -16.0% -19.4% -13.3% -10.2% -19.8% -33.9% -11.9% (this one) Every time felt like the world was about to unravel at any moment This one feels like that right now too Someday it's not going to feel like that anymore (I don't know when)
Forward PE Model and the Fed Model (Dividend Discount Model) are the two worst at predicting future market returns.
Blue Chip Performance: 1973-1974 Du Pont -58.4% Eastman Kodak -62.1% Exxon -46.9% Ford Motor -64.8% General Electric -60.5% General Motors -71.2% Goodyear -63.0% IBM -58.8% McDonalds -72.4% Mobil -59.8% Motorola -54.3% PepsiCo -67.0% Philip Morris -50.3% Polaroid -90.2% Sears -66.2% Sony -80.9% Westinghouse -83.1%