Can you guys all refrain from talking about Russia/Ukraine?
Much ado about nothing in your circles?
Ukraine could be overrun by Russia in a week if Putin orders it. This talk of resistance by the Ukrainian military or armed insurrection seems like a dream to me.
Ukraine could be overrun by Russia in a week if Putin orders it. This talk of resistance by the Ukrainian military or armed insurrection seems like a dream to me.
well that's the question...will Russia keep going to the capital. Probably not initially...putin's goal is to overthrow the Ukrainian government and install a puppet. Putin will try to do that from a distance first and see what happens. Probably hire some coup-plotters and have them do the dirty work.
I just took at look at 2003, the invasion of Iraq.
Invasion was March 19, 2003.
SPX began the year at 880 and dropped 10% leading up the invasion. Note that we, too, are down 10%.
Then the market rallied the rest of the year, getting to around 30% higher than the low around invasion day.
That was a strange time tho as the 2000-2003 bear market was still in the air.
but war has not been bad for the stock market, typically.
Very little is similar in my opinion, most of all hopefully this will not be our war. Hasn’t been working so well lately. We can’t afford all the reckless spending already booked for the year.
Ukraine could be overrun by Russia in a week if Putin orders it. This talk of resistance by the Ukrainian military or armed insurrection seems like a dream to me.
well that's the question...will Russia keep going to the capital. Probably not initially...putin's goal is to overthrow the Ukrainian government and install a puppet. Putin will try to do that from a distance first and see what happens. Probably hire some coup-plotters and have them do the dirty work.
That is not the assessment of our military. Surgical strikes, followed by massive invasion. Certainly should be an interesting week, in a morbid sense.
I just took at look at 2003, the invasion of Iraq.
Invasion was March 19, 2003.
SPX began the year at 880 and dropped 10% leading up the invasion. Note that we, too, are down 10%.
Then the market rallied the rest of the year, getting to around 30% higher than the low around invasion day.
That was a strange time tho as the 2000-2003 bear market was still in the air.
but war has not been bad for the stock market, typically.
Very little is similar in my opinion, most of all hopefully this will not be our war. Hasn’t been working so well lately. We can’t afford all the reckless spending already booked for the year.
In a world where tax receipts are going through the roof (20% higher in raw dollars than ever before) and the debt is depreciating at 7-10% per year we probably can.
Very little is similar in my opinion, most of all hopefully this will not be our war. Hasn’t been working so well lately. We can’t afford all the reckless spending already booked for the year.
In a world where tax receipts are going through the roof (20% higher in raw dollars than ever before) and the debt is depreciating at 7-10% per year we probably can.
As long as Treasury issues the debt, and the Fed buy it, yes. Called monetization by the way.
Can you guys all refrain from talking about Russia/Ukraine?
Much ado about nothing in your circles?
Quite the contrary. I used to come here for relief. It has occupied me all day, now I come to DGTD and it is here too? No thanks.
I guess I don’t like change. I used to come here to read that Republicans suck (agip), that Democrats suck (Igy), that boomers suck (Racket), that Hussman sucks (Sally), that the world’s ending (idiot), that everyone else is a moron (gente), etc. These were reliable attitudes, like a comfortable pair of shoes.
Inevitably, though, each regular contributor is likely to frame the Ukraine situation in terms of the attitudes I just described. I just don’t want to wait, get to it now and dispense with the inanity of what you think are specifics! For the love of god, just skip ahead to the conclusion!
What I want to say is that you are all suckers for even talking about about this in the first place. It’s like listening to people who read The Enquirer”.
I much prefer it when the immediate focus of attention is the markets. A distant second is macro discussions. In an hierarchical ordering on DGTD, geopolitics would be lower than whale schitt. I tried to turn it to gold, but it didn’t work.
Ukraine could be overrun by Russia in a week if Putin orders it. This talk of resistance by the Ukrainian military or armed insurrection seems like a dream to me.
Remember the "vaunted" Republican Guard? At the time Iraq had like the 5th biggest defense budget in the world. The Republican Guard was going to be hell to deal with. They were done in like 2 days.
Quite the contrary. I used to come here for relief. It has occupied me all day, now I come to DGTD and it is here too? No thanks.
I guess I don’t like change. I used to come here to read that Republicans suck (agip), that Democrats suck (Igy), that boomers suck (Racket), that Hussman sucks (Sally), that the world’s ending (idiot), that everyone else is a moron (gente), etc. These were reliable attitudes, like a comfortable pair of shoes.
Inevitably, though, each regular contributor is likely to frame the Ukraine situation in terms of the attitudes I just described. I just don’t want to wait, get to it now and dispense with the inanity of what you think are specifics! For the love of god, just skip ahead to the conclusion!
What I want to say is that you are all suckers for even talking about about this in the first place. It’s like listening to people who read The Enquirer”.
I much prefer it when the immediate focus of attention is the markets. A distant second is macro discussions. In an hierarchical ordering on DGTD, geopolitics would be lower than whale schitt. I tried to turn it to gold, but it didn’t work.
Maybe oil?
FWIW, I really kind of liked that russian figure skater who landed five quad jumps, which was largely understood to be " the most ambitious technical program in the history of women's Olympic figure skating," only to find out that she got second. She proceeds to go ballastic, crying, and ranting that she hates everyone, the judges, the olympics, figure skating, everything.
From the NY Times:
"Afterward, Trusova was seen on camera saying, “I hate it! I don’t want to do anything in figure skating ever in my life! Everyone has a gold medal and I don’t.” Later, her eyes red from crying, she told reporters, “I am not happy with the result. There is no happiness.”"
They showed Ukrainian military drills on some film clips. I was not impressed. Russia has been deep in Syria for years. I suspect they will roll the Ukrainians. Probably the best case for the markets is a quick end to this story.
What I want to say is that you are all suckers for even talking about about this in the first place. It’s like listening to people who read The Enquirer”.
And that's why it even happens. Someone is cashing in big time on these maniacs.
It's all in how you craft the story. If the media/intel complex had merely said "hmm looks like Russia might recognize and annex Donbass soon," there would have been no effect at all. Donbass has been de facto independent for 7 years, wants to join Russia, only in the strictest technical sense is it an invasion, doesn't scare people.
Talk about a big war for all Ukraine, and now we see the audience spinning up its own narrative for the next year or two, instead of saying "oh is that all, big deal." Look at agip who lives to freak out, already mapping out the contingencies.
futures open down 2% or so...that's new lows this cycle. Taking us down to where the market was in June 21. Down around 12% from the all time highs.
Getting close to the 14% number, which is the average drawdown during a year.
not so, not according to what i am seeing, currrently nasdaq 110 down 0.65% and SNP futures down 0.53%,
Only small cap 2000 down close to 2 %.
I hope this news is met with some relief.
I am seeing different numbers now on other sites. Investing.com shows those numbers i sited, but other sites show numbers much worse, so it appears. Oh, well.