There are decent deals to be had depending on your strategy, maybe even in the US. If you are just chasing yield, fuhgeddaboudit.
I have been buying individual names rather than indexes. I think there’s dead wood in indexes, and that there’s no real need for what now are being revealed as tag-along stocks.
Hey, what about gold? Racket will hate to hear it, but gold is edging up. In fact, I think it’s risen something like 5.5% yoy...not yet matching inflation, but decent, steady performance during a turbulent time. Of course I haven’t bought any, but I am considering it.
There are decent deals to be had depending on your strategy, maybe even in the US. If you are just chasing yield, fuhgeddaboudit.
I have been buying individual names rather than indexes. I think there’s dead wood in indexes, and that there’s no real need for what now are being revealed as tag-along stocks.
Hey, what about gold? Racket will hate to hear it, but gold is edging up. In fact, I think it’s risen something like 5.5% yoy...not yet matching inflation, but decent, steady performance during a turbulent time. Of course I haven’t bought any, but I am considering it.
gold...I messed that one up. I owned it in the big runup 2018-2020, which was great. THen i held and held and held though to oh December 2021. When I sold it, when gold was down during the most inflationary period of my professional life and during a global pandemic. Then a few weeks after I sold it, gold came to life, charging me opportunity cost all up and down the line.
In short, I have no idea about gold. I do think there is a converse relationship between gold and BTC....that they will roughly move in opposite directions as people look for non-fiat currency stores of value.
There are decent deals to be had depending on your strategy, maybe even in the US. If you are just chasing yield, fuhgeddaboudit.
I have been buying individual names rather than indexes. I think there’s dead wood in indexes, and that there’s no real need for what now are being revealed as tag-along stocks.
Hey, what about gold? Racket will hate to hear it, but gold is edging up. In fact, I think it’s risen something like 5.5% yoy...not yet matching inflation, but decent, steady performance during a turbulent time. Of course I haven’t bought any, but I am considering it.
gold...I messed that one up. I owned it in the big runup 2018-2020, which was great. THen i held and held and held though to oh December 2021. When I sold it, when gold was down during the most inflationary period of my professional life and during a global pandemic. Then a few weeks after I sold it, gold came to life, charging me opportunity cost all up and down the line.
In short, I have no idea about gold. I do think there is a converse relationship between gold and BTC....that they will roughly move in opposite directions as people look for non-fiat currency stores of value.
I wrote poorly. I meant that I sold gold because it had done nothing, or even gone down, when it should have performed well. During inflation and during global insecurity.
but then it started to move up as soon as I sold it.
Yeah I got burned too, but with miners. Made money on the first block, then lost a bit on the 2nd. I guess I did well in the end, but that was a shock. I am sitting here wondering if I should have held it all. Still wondering, not yet convinced. It's such a bizarro asset, IMO good for only 2 things: feeling good, and a store of wealth. As a commodity, it's trivial.
As for places where gold matters, it is the n'er-do-wells of the world: India, China, Switzerland, Dubai, Russia, etc. They have gold, and lots of it, already above ground. As for places where they have no gold, they are fruitcakes, like Canada. It is gold above ground that matters, in terms of gold's responsiveness to economic, financial, or monetary conditions.
Of course those I know with money all have gold, but their allocation doesn't matter to them. Some have as high as 20%, no way would I do that. Even 10% would make me nervous, I'm not sure why. Many anti-Bitcoin arguments can be used against gold as well, and make it unappealing to many. Were it not for CB holdings, it might properly be treated as a collectible.
Speaking of collectibles, I just sold a very niche "collector" vehicle for 2-3x what I thought it was worth. It was no big deal, I was glad to be rid of it, honestly--but it is surprising what some people will pay for something that turns their crank. Including gold.
gold...I messed that one up. I owned it in the big runup 2018-2020, which was great. THen i held and held and held though to oh December 2021. When I sold it, when gold was down during the most inflationary period of my professional life and during a global pandemic. Then a few weeks after I sold it, gold came to life, charging me opportunity cost all up and down the line.
In short, I have no idea about gold. I do think there is a converse relationship between gold and BTC....that they will roughly move in opposite directions as people look for non-fiat currency stores of value.
I wrote poorly. I meant that I sold gold because it had done nothing, or even gone down, when it should have performed well. During inflation and during global insecurity.
but then it started to move up as soon as I sold it.
Leading indicator--which, if true, would mean that inflation will fall soon enough. I watch the gold price, but am not religious about it.
Since value stocks are doing less crappy, would BRK-B be a better investment than SPY/VTI right now?
Yes in my view. Less mega cap growth and substantial cash on balance sheet.
They're using that cash to buyback stock; from 2020 Annual Report.
I’ll have more to say about BNSF and BHE later in this letter. For now, however, I would like to focus on a practice Berkshire will periodically use to enhance your interest in both its “Big Four” as well as the many other assets Berkshire owns. * * * * * * * * * * * * Last year we demonstrated our enthusiasm for Berkshire’s spread of properties by repurchasing the equivalent of 80,998 “A” shares, spending $24.7 billion in the process. That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire’s businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet. Following criteria Charlie and I have long recommended, we made those purchases because we believed they would both enhance the intrinsic value per share for continuing shareholders and would leave Berkshire with more than ample funds for any opportunities or problems it might encounter. In no way do we think that Berkshire shares should be repurchased at simply any price. I emphasize that point because American CEOs have an embarrassing record of devoting more company funds to repurchases when prices have risen than when they have tanked. Our approach is exactly the reverse. Berkshire’s investment in Apple vividly illustrates the power of repurchases. We began buying Apple stock late in 2016 and by early July 2018, owned slightly more than one billion Apple shares (split-adjusted). Saying that, I’m referencing the investment held in Berkshire’s general account and am excluding a very small and separately-managed holding of Apple shares that was subsequently sold. When we finished our purchases in mid-2018, Berkshire’s general account owned 5.2% of Apple. Our cost for that stake was $36 billion. Since then, we have both enjoyed regular dividends, averaging about $775 million annually, and have also – in 2020 – pocketed an additional $11 billion by selling a small portion of our position. Despite that sale – voila! – Berkshire now owns 5.4% of Apple. That increase was costless to us, coming about because Apple has continuously repurchased its shares, thereby substantially shrinking the number it now has outstanding.
For the 3 Qs of 2021, they repurchased $20.192B
If you believe Real Estate will go bust; they have a large exposure to that sector.
But I suppose the wildcard here is cyber...expect lots of cyber attacks in the West, should sanctions go on Russia proper. No one has any idea what that will look like.
The United States won’t be going to war, but the oil market should go above $100 a barrel and higher depending upon the severity.
yeah probably
Note that Iran is probably about to have its sanctions removed...traders know that and may start shorting oil in anticipation. Could restrain the price jump. I mean Iran is going to want to sell a lot of oil pretty quickly at $100/barrel.