have to be careful when you think dictators are motivated by economics. They often aren't.
people don't have revolutions against dictators when they get poor. They have revolutions when there's some mix of hope and humiliation. Muscovites seeing Ukrainians getting richer, more democratic and closer to the West could give that injection of hope/humiliation to spark a revolution.
Remember Putin's personal nightmare is Berlin 1989, when mobs decided to move East Germany to the West. Putin's personal nightmare is in no way the poverty of Russia. Economics are not his #1 concern.
I guess we'll see. I really think this is just some status-quo saber rattling though.
I too think the goal is destabilization, not invasion.
Yeah good point about destabilization being the goal. I just don't see how NATO is going to be destabilized while Biden is Pres. If Russia does a full-on invasion, I would think that Europe will unite behind sanctions -- since it would be obviously playing into Russia/CCP if they can't unite behind simple strong sanctions after a land grab.
The only thing could be, maybe they do a limited incursion and Biden gets aggressive and says Nord Stream 2 should be thrown away. But the Germans go through with it, thus showing a splintering of the alliance.
Markets-wise, thanks Iggy (i'm 70% sure it was you, or maybe investing noob) for the XLE call back in Fall 2020. I'm still holding on it... but maybe sell soon.
Sure Swag (it was me). If there is an invasion, and oil spikes to $120,I would sell. XLE will be subject to the same dynamics affecting the rest of the market, i.e. tightening of monetary conditions, falling demand, and eventual recession.
What I'm hearing from investors I listen to is that the inflation play is invest in companies that are able to raise prices without losing much, if any, sales. For example, in theory, cigarrete companies can double the price because smoking addicts will cut down their spending on food to continue to afford their smoking habit.
Yeah good point about destabilization being the goal. I just don't see how NATO is going to be destabilized while Biden is Pres. If Russia does a full-on invasion, I would think that Europe will unite behind sanctions -- since it would be obviously playing into Russia/CCP if they can't unite behind simple strong sanctions after a land grab.
The only thing could be, maybe they do a limited incursion and Biden gets aggressive and says Nord Stream 2 should be thrown away. But the Germans go through with it, thus showing a splintering of the alliance.
Markets-wise, thanks Iggy (i'm 70% sure it was you, or maybe investing noob) for the XLE call back in Fall 2020. I'm still holding on it... but maybe sell soon.
Destabilization is also the goal inside Ukraine. Putin would love to get the russian speakers in Ukraine to revolt and start a civil war in Ukraine. Having Russian troops on the border will encourage that. Then Putin can point at Ukraine's chaos and violence and say to the russian people and oligarchs 'democracy? is that what you want? democracy=chaos. I'm no angel but I provide law and order. keep me,'
But of course putin is always probing NATO's walls trying to find weaknesses. That too.
Note that the 'greatest bubble in all history' has stocks only a smidge more expensive than they have been over the last 10 years, and with earnings growing15% or so. Just doesn't seem that bubblish to me. High, certainly. Bubbly? Meh.
FactSet@FactSet·3hThe forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 19.8 is above the 5-year average (18.6) and the 10-year average (16.7).
This market feels to me like whatever direction it goes in the next 2 hours is what we'll get for a few days. Feels on a knife's edge between 'holy crow why own stock when so many risks are all around us and 'holy crow this market is knocked down I get get stocks at half price and there is sheer terror out there. Buy buy buy.'
MOSCOW, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Monday told President Vladimir Putin that some of the country's military drills had already ended and others were coming to a close. Russia's joint exercises with ally Belarus and other drills near Ukraine have fanned fears Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine, something Moscow has repeatedly denied planning.
This market feels to me like whatever direction it goes in the next 2 hours is what we'll get for a few days. Feels on a knife's edge between 'holy crow why own stock when so many risks are all around us and 'holy crow this market is knocked down I get get stocks at half price and there is sheer terror out there. Buy buy buy.'
Of for crying out loud, i log on to get some perspective, vision, and insights, and what do i get? The same handwringing I've been wallowing in since futures were posting yesterday,
Kind of a little up, a little down, repeat.... I'm not used to this relative flatline stuff. Makes me nervous. LOL.
But I'll take it. Last night futures got very ugly. Major stroke of good luck to dodge that bullet.
This market feels to me like whatever direction it goes in the next 2 hours is what we'll get for a few days. Feels on a knife's edge between 'holy crow why own stock when so many risks are all around us and 'holy crow this market is knocked down I get get stocks at half price and there is sheer terror out there. Buy buy buy.'
Of for crying out loud, i log on to get some perspective, vision, and insights, and what do i get? The same handwringing I've been wallowing in since futures were posting yesterday,
Kind of a little up, a little down, repeat.... I'm not used to this relative flatline stuff. Makes me nervous. LOL.
But I'll take it. Last night futures got very ugly. Major stroke of good luck to dodge that bullet.
youse guys should know by now that I log on primarily to keep in touch with you all, and then to vent and worry and wring my digital hands.
Of for crying out loud, i log on to get some perspective, vision, and insights, and what do i get? The same handwringing I've been wallowing in since futures were posting yesterday,
Kind of a little up, a little down, repeat.... I'm not used to this relative flatline stuff. Makes me nervous. LOL.
But I'll take it. Last night futures got very ugly. Major stroke of good luck to dodge that bullet.
youse guys should know by now that I log on primarily to keep in touch with you all, and then to vent and worry and wring my digital hands.
I'd come back with some witty retort but I hit the upvote button instead.👍
Hey agip I took a look at the CPI numbers. It turns out that when you take the weighting into account, while used cars and gasoline are still the biggest components, they are only so by a small amount, for example:
1.678 Used Cars
1.499 Gasoline
1.450 Shelter (mostly OER)
0.998 Food
Or, I think that's how it works out, more or less. Did this in 2 seconds, might be wrong. OER has such a high weight that it ends up adding a lot--and since the first 2 can be strongly affected by behavior yet OER not really, it is probably the realistic biggest contributor to the CPI. Haven't done a deep dive, that is just my sense of it.
Seattle I didn't even know they were upvote/downvote buttons.
Yet another feature for me to ignore!
What markets today. Did a bunch more buying of foreign equities--UK, Swiss, Singapore. Still haven't moved on RIO. Interesting stock and sector, I am gun shy on it. Flat over 6 months, down over 1Y. Commodity metals. Geez.
