Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Shipping appears to be improving. You could draw a pretty clear picture that inflation has peaked.

-huge 4q inventory build

-ports starting to improve

-omicron fading

-sticker shock on cars prevents purchases

-lapping the big inflationary months of 2021.

WSJ:The lengthy backup of container ships waiting to unload in Southern California is shrinking, the first sign in three months of an easing of U.S. supply-chain congestion at the nation’s busiest container port complex.The number of container ships queuing to enter the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach declined to 78 vessels on Tuesday, down from the peak of 109 ships reached a month earlier, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California.Port officials say it is unclear whether the decline, which has accelerated over the past week following a surge shortly before and after the December holidays, is the beginning of a trend or a temporary respite because of factory slowdowns in Asia for the Lunar New Year holiday that began Feb. 1.“No one is taking a victory lap,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles.Although the ship backup is the smallest it has been since Nov. 11, congestion remains severe by historical standards. Container ships are waiting an average of 18 days to unload at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest of the neighboring gateways. Before the pandemic, it was unusual for ships to have to wait for a berth.

Hardloper wrote:

agip wrote:

Shipping appears to be improving. You could draw a pretty clear picture that inflation has peaked.

-huge 4q inventory build

-ports starting to improve

-omicron fading

-sticker shock on cars prevents purchases

-lapping the big inflationary months of 2021.

WSJ:The lengthy backup of container ships waiting to unload in Southern California is shrinking, the first sign in three months of an easing of U.S. supply-chain congestion at the nation’s busiest container port complex.The number of container ships queuing to enter the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach declined to 78 vessels on Tuesday, down from the peak of 109 ships reached a month earlier, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California.Port officials say it is unclear whether the decline, which has accelerated over the past week following a surge shortly before and after the December holidays, is the beginning of a trend or a temporary respite because of factory slowdowns in Asia for the Lunar New Year holiday that began Feb. 1.“No one is taking a victory lap,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles.Although the ship backup is the smallest it has been since Nov. 11, congestion remains severe by historical standards. Container ships are waiting an average of 18 days to unload at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest of the neighboring gateways. Before the pandemic, it was unusual for ships to have to wait for a berth.

The CEO of Flexport says that's misleading due to the way it's counted (granted he has his own biases but what he says sounds legit):

Tweet:twitter.com/technology/status/14883228...

Their own indicator:

Link:www.flexport.com/research/ocean-timeli...

agip wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

Not gonna happen - they've probably got some ulterior motive at play though. But really they'd get nothing out of it and would basically be banned from any dollar denominated exchange.

Oil at $100 means US shale producers can profitably operate at 100% capacity which will drive the price down. You can always buy oil futures though. Just make sure you sell the contract before a bunch of barrels of oil show up at your door!

This piece changed some of my thinking toward feeling there is a greater chance of invasion than I thought before. it argues that Putin's main interest is in preventing democracy from taking hold in former soviet republics. Because that could inspire mass revolt in Russia proper. So in that sense, Putin would be willing to take massive economic losses in order to save his skin. After all, Putin is plenty rich already.

And other pieces have made it clear that this buildup is more massive than prior buildups.

Although one could also argue that the buildup to end democracy in Ukraine could be just to give a clear warning to Kiev: DO NOT GET CLOSER TO THE WEST OR RUSSIA WILL DESTROY YOU.

And ideally, the pressure being applied will cause political chaos in Ukraine, which will make 'democracy' less appealing to russian citizens.

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

This piece changed some of my thinking toward feeling there is a greater chance of invasion than I thought before. it argues that Putin's main interest is in preventing democracy from taking hold in former soviet republics. Because that could inspire mass revolt in Russia proper. So in that sense, Putin would be willing to take massive economic losses in order to save his skin. After all, Putin is plenty rich already.

And other pieces have made it clear that this buildup is more massive than prior buildups. 

Although one could also argue that the buildup to end democracy in Ukraine could be just to give a clear warning to Kiev: DO NOT GET CLOSER TO THE WEST OR RUSSIA WILL DESTROY YOU. 

And ideally, the pressure being applied will cause political chaos in Ukraine, which will make 'democracy' less appealing to russian citizens. 

Yeah not buying that even for a second. The economic hit they would take would be more than enough to spur pro-democracy and anti-Putin rallies across Russia. Invading Ukraine really gets him nothing but instability at home and abroad.

And it's not like there's already bunch of pro-democracy states right next to Russia anyways. The people there aren't stupid, they just don't really care because Putin keeps things just good enough. Status quo and all that

agip wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

Yeah not buying that even for a second. The economic hit they would take would be more than enough to spur pro-democracy and anti-Putin rallies across Russia. Invading Ukraine really gets him nothing but instability at home and abroad.

And it's not like there's already bunch of pro-democracy states right next to Russia anyways. The people there aren't stupid, they just don't really care because Putin keeps things just good enough. Status quo and all that

have to be careful when you think dictators are motivated by economics. They often aren't.

people don't have revolutions against dictators when they get poor. They have revolutions when there's some mix of hope and humiliation. Muscovites seeing Ukrainians getting richer, more democratic and closer to the West could give that injection of hope/humiliation to spark a revolution.

Remember Putin's personal nightmare is Berlin 1989, when mobs decided to move East Germany to the West. Putin's personal nightmare is in no way the poverty of Russia. Economics are not his #1 concern.

Swaglord369 wrote:

Case #1:

Don't see why Russia would only take a small part, or the rebel lands and make them Russians. That takes away a headache for Ukraine, gives them moral high ground on the world stage, and makes it easier for them to join NATO.

Case #2:

A massive lightning invasion would take out most of the fighting Ukrainian forces within 1-2 days, because of the superiority of air/missiles. Take all of eastern Ukraine, land link to Crimea, etc. Then they never give it up, get strategic land in future conflict with NATO. Hold Kiev at gunpoint from reinforced positions just outside of it. Economically this makes the remaining Ukraine even worse off, maybe they are squeezed/forced to make a bad deal. Economic sanctions hurt Russia, but maybe Putin is counting on them being forced to buy his gas anyway. De-couple with Europe and get closer with China/Iran even more.

Case #3:

Keep most of those units stationed there permanently, with the implicit threat to keep Ukraine out of NATO. Makes US have to shore up positions in Europe, which will weaken future deployments in Asia (against CCP and NK) and Saudi Arabia (against Iran).

Case #4 (this one is the worst):

Russia has said "we have no plans to invade Ukraine." What if they're right, and their real plan is to surprise attack Suwalski Gap, Poland, and the Baltics. This causes the US to have to mobilize 10k's of troops from the mainland, and gives China an opening to attack Taiwan swiftly. Maybe that's why Biden has been reinforcing Poland, Romania, and the Baltics.