Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Ok, it's an official bond rout. the fixed income market is not at all happy with this CPI number. the good news is that bond funds can start scooping up bonds yielding twice what they yielded last year. Eventually monthly fund dividend payments will start rising. Or stop falling as fast anyway. 

H/T @mark_dow

Heard a rumor AMZN was going to buy 500,000 shares of GLD; price of gold going to the moon.

Hey agip, I know you studied Art History, do you think my memes would have any value as NFTs ?

investing noob wrote:

Bought back in SARK this morning when I saw that QQQ was red but ARKK was green. Felt like ARKK was gonna dump and it did.

PLTR is funny cause if you ask their investors what they do, they have no idea. Even cloud engineers at FAANG companies don't know what PLTR does besides "data analytics" which Google, Microsoft and Apple already do.

I grabbed PLTR off of a Jamin post last Jan during the "gee I missed out on this run-up, time to grab some higher risk stuff" period.

I knew PLTR was dumb but I still bought it. What leverage would PLTR have over, yeah exactly, MSFT etc. Infrastructure, no. Existing secret sauce tech, no. New engineers that will change the game? Highly unlikely.

Plus you never hear about them in the news besides that gov contract they got like 8 years ago or whatever.

I should prob just sell and take the 55% loss right now.

Igy NFT “Bitcoin Going Down”:

https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/

la gente esta muy loca wrote:Hey agip, I know you studied Art History, do you think my memes would have any value as NFTs ?

They are clever, I’ll give you that… maybe a niche market though 😅

I think you have your own sensibility and should nurture that. 

argh the 2/10 yield curve just gets flatter and flatter. Took a giant leap toward utter flatness yesterday. Just 42 bps now. That's not a great sign for the economy. 

we always get a recession after an inversion but it can take 18 months to have the recession. 

fred.stlouisfed.org

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

Link:fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

agip wrote:

argh the 2/10 yield curve just gets flatter and flatter. Took a giant leap toward utter flatness yesterday. Just 42 bps now. That's not a great sign for the economy. we always get a recession after an inversion but it can take 18 months to have the recession. 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

I wonder if we would have had a recession last time though.

Feel like the 2-10 indicator was sweating and then got bailed out at the last second by an absolute miracle of a black swan stock market crasher

omicron impacts on US hospital capacity and resulting fatalities look to have not surpassed those of the biggest wave, so Racket wins the bet he pretended he never understood on that one. I admit amazement at the collective rationalization and acceptance of the death toll, not just in the US, but everywhere. I recognize that other impacts are also very important, including job loss and other financial hardship, as well as competing mental health impacts, and the "right" balance between those competing $hitty things is different for each of us. I hope this blows away now with subsidence of the first omicron wave, but I somehow think we're in for more to come...

In other news, I think there are still other important storms on the horizon, now getting really close. I've lived through a lot of global political turmoil, but none quite so alarming as just now.

ARKK vs dot.com bubble

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/457979685549113357/941512908616134656/FLPydD2VcBMDC8o.png

Witness me

[quote]VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

omicron impacts on US hospital capacity and resulting fatalities

How is omicron killing anyone?

Well, hello again! That was a nice week off. I went incommunicado in a cabin, was fantastic. Lol I see you guys were talking about chopping wood, indeed! So satisfying, and a good workout if you go through twisted knotty hardwood, ouch.

Gente! When I pointed out the AMZN buybacks, the only point was to highlight Igy’s opposition to buybacks in general. I had hoped to spur the buybacks discussion, because they’re on the table again in many companies. I am not necessarily opposed, to me it depends on the specifics.

Bonds. Agip...what can I say? You know how I feel about the numbers including gdp. We have sky-high record trade deficits, less business investment as I understand it, and depending on who you ask, consumer spending might be going down. It would be no surprise to me, even given current measurement techniques, if gdp dropped. Same as the inflation number having risen, even though there are huge adjustments and it includes subjective crud like hedonics and owner’s equivalent rent.

Imo it’s worse they say it is, no matter what it is—employment, inflation, gdp. The question is what to do. As goes the US, so goes much of the developed world. One of my solutions has been to buy foreign dividend stocks, from monsters who should have pricing power, to cyclicals like oil. Also some jack-off banks, like Canadian ones. Pricing power indeed.

I am still out of the US except for that pesky trbcx, some aapl and some msft. It’s still too choppy, I’m not even buying US divs like Chevron or Dow.

I have been taking hard looks at net debt:equity ratios, and debt term. It’s fun to get back to that stuff a decade after having left it behind.

Am not touching bonds, save for a trivial amount of Ibonds. Wish I could have bought more.

This inflation...there has been overall inflation for a long time now, but it manifested in stocks and RE. It has now spilled everywhere. This is in my mind an inevitable consequence of the Fed’s explicit goal of creating the wealth effect, combined with the prior and ongoing banking supports and bailouts. Inflation was necessary to keep the banks looking solvent. Essentially, bank solvency was achieved at the expense of national solvency, which was a loose concept anyway.

How will increasing rates bring down inflation this time, if it wasn’t real economic activity that created inflation pressure in the first place? Answer: it won’t. Enter stagflation. They will make it look like they are winning the fight against inflation this year by tweaking the numbers to show disinflation after rate hikes, so IMO there will be a time to get back into US stocks, when demand drives the price back up. And even bonds at some point.

IMO a big part of the solution needs to be the total re-opening of the economy—butts in seats, commuting, eating out much more often. Increase supply of everything, including shale oil. Re-opening is starting in some places, finally. Have been looking to pick up some Novo Nordisk, but haven’t found a good entry point. Go Denmark.

For some reason I wish that Korea would be doing better. Big companies, hard-working and smart people. I would love to invest, but I haven’t yet found a good target. Any recos from the board?

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

In other news, I think there are still other important storms on the horizon, now getting really close. I've lived through a lot of global political turmoil, but none quite so alarming as just now.

Yes. As you know there is some shlt going down at the moment. There is tension, and the direction is unfavorable.

So what are you doing investment-wise? Buying oil?

carmine9 wrote:How is omicron killing anyone?

I hate to feed a troll...

I don't know, Giles / Unkle / l'Oncle / K5 / chief covid denier and anti-Semite, I'm not a medical scientist, so I can't say exactly HOW it works. Many people catch it, some (admittedly very few, but very big numbers multiplied by very small numbers can still produce big numbers, as we can all plainly see) die. How does the flu kill anyone? Polio? AIDs? Cancer? I don't know, and I don't need to. They say there are no stupid questions... I beg to differ. To be clear, I'm not calling you stupid ( I doubt that to be true), just your question.

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

argh the 2/10 yield curve just gets flatter and flatter. Took a giant leap toward utter flatness yesterday. Just 42 bps now. That's not a great sign for the economy. we always get a recession after an inversion but it can take 18 months to have the recession. 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

I wonder if we would have had a recession last time though.

Feel like the 2-10 indicator was sweating and then got bailed out at the last second by an absolute miracle of a black swan stock market crasher

fair

Maser wrote:

and owner’s equivalent rent.

Imo it’s worse they say it is, no matter what it is—employment, inflation, gdp. The question is what to do. As goes the US, so goes much of the developed world. One of my solutions has been to buy foreign dividend stocks, from monsters who should have pricing power, to cyclicals like oil. Also some jack-off banks, like Canadian ones. Pricing power indeed.

?

I've been buying developed world ex-USA dividend funds - on the thesis that markets are unlikely to have another +20% year - they might even stall out - so getting a high dividend makes sense to sit and wait for the next surge with.

And I've been underweight non-US for years, which is not a good strategy. And they are cheap.

Ticker IDV seems a cheap and easy way to do it, but NB it has a large amount of utilities and financials so not a normal fund.

5% yield, up 7% year to date

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

carmine9 wrote:How is omicron killing anyone?

I hate to feed a troll...

I don't know, Giles / Unkle / l'Oncle / K5 / chief covid denier and anti-Semite, I'm not a medical scientist, so I can't say exactly HOW it works. Many people catch it, some (admittedly very few, but very big numbers multiplied by very small numbers can still produce big numbers, as we can all plainly see) die. How does the flu kill anyone? Polio? AIDs? Cancer? I don't know, and I don't need to. They say there are no stupid questions... I beg to differ. To be clear, I'm not calling you stupid ( I doubt that to be true), just your question.

You are ignoring the fact that the symptoms of omicron match those of the common cold.

It does not go down into the lungs like the original cases and Delta did.

So I ask you again, how does omicron kill people? Do lots of people die from the common cold

Try to answer without all the histrionics.

agip wrote:

I've been buying developed world ex-USA dividend funds - on the thesis that markets are unlikely to have another +20% year - they might even stall out - so getting a high dividend makes sense to sit and wait for the next surge with.

And I've been underweight non-US for years, which is not a good strategy. And they are cheap.

Ticker IDV seems a cheap and easy way to do it, but NB it has a large amount of utilities and financials so not a normal fund.

5% yield, up 7% year to date

Yeah, the things I have bought this year are up about 9%, but the year is still young so there remains plenty of time for failure. I have been buying them for divs and to hold, so this early 9% is a nice cushion.

Just looked at IDV, and I have from it what I want. I have been thinking about Rio Tinto for a while, but haven’t bitten on it, I haven’t looked into it closely enough.

I'm curious why someone is opposed to buy backs. I understand the more political components (use the cash to pay workers better, or adjust prices for the consumer) - is there an investing side as well?

Also, it sounds like quite a few of the regular posters are very actively trading and, in some cases, liquidating their entire portfolio.  Is this accurate?  And if so, is this within a taxable account or within an IRA/401k?

I have a taxable account with 43 individual stocks, which feels like too many - but at my every time I consider selling something I don't really see a point...just accumulate cash (aka, keep working!) to buy something else or add to an existing position.  Of course, I'm ~20 years from retirement so perhaps a different strategy.