Total return, so I am assuming dividends but not reinvested. I believe reinvestment of dividend data is used to make stock down turns less bad. Furthermore, I assume bond interest could be reinvested in a similar manner, which would be significant when looking at longer dated bonds. So in summary I would view the data as clean, and it can be found elsewhere.
investing noob wrote:
wondering wrote:
I’m thinking of ordering a Toyota. How long do you expect to wait for delivery?
Put a deposit down in November and it's expected to come in March.
I asked another dealer and they say wait time is 16-22 weeks for this vehicle. The Prime one of the most sought after vehicles. If you just want a regular hybrid or ICE version then they won't have long wait lists.
Thanks for that info. We are looking to replace our current Camry with a new hybrid one. I feel we need the upgrade to get the modern safety tools that the car comes with. Now I just need to decide when to go for it…thinking about waiting for the 2023 model year.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It was good advice and you would have gotten the same from me. Unfortunately today is the mirror image of 2008.
2008 was a systemic break in the flow of proper value that ground everything to a halt while we slowly reset. Nothing like that exists today. Today everything is going good, but it's just that a rising tide lifts all boats.
Also... re: cars.... don't you guys think that the supply issues will resolve within the year? I don't need one for awhile, so I guess I'll wait.
wondering wrote:
investing noob wrote:
Put a deposit down in November and it's expected to come in March.
I asked another dealer and they say wait time is 16-22 weeks for this vehicle. The Prime one of the most sought after vehicles. If you just want a regular hybrid or ICE version then they won't have long wait lists.
Thanks for that info. We are looking to replace our current Camry with a new hybrid one. I feel we need the upgrade to get the modern safety tools that the car comes with. Now I just need to decide when to go for it…thinking about waiting for the 2023 model year.
Do you have a hard time staying in your lane?
Swaglord369 wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It was good advice and you would have gotten the same from me. Unfortunately today is the mirror image of 2008.
2008 was a systemic break in the flow of proper value that ground everything to a halt while we slowly reset. Nothing like that exists today. Today everything is going good, but it's just that a rising tide lifts all boats.
Huh, you can’t possibly be that blind.
That tide is going out exposing all the bloated swimmers.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Swaglord369 wrote:
2008 was a systemic break in the flow of proper value that ground everything to a halt while we slowly reset. Nothing like that exists today. Today everything is going good, but it's just that a rising tide lifts all boats.
Huh, you can’t possibly be that blind.
That tide is going out exposing all the bloated swimmers.
Imagine the whole system flowing. 2008 there's a huge slate wipe that causes big entities to go down, etc etc you know the story. Economic activity contracts due to uncertainty.
Now, what's wrong with now? Supply lines set, tons of physical work needed, technology being applied rapidly providing deflationary pressure. Too much cash will get flushed out.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
The trend IS always upward, yes. I have been investing since 1989, so my view is definitely not just looking at the last dozen years.
Stocks have gone through long period of time where they lag the return of Treasury Bills. So the narrative of stocks for the long run is largely dependent time horizon, both entry and exit.
“There have been three periods of at least 13 years when the S&P 500 underperformed what is considered the riskless benchmark, one-month Treasury bills — the 15 years from 1929 to 1943, the 17 years from 1966-82, and the 13 years from 2000-12. That’s 45 total years out of the last 91. Of course, over the other 45 years, there were huge equity risk premiums. But the only way you earned those great returns was if you were there all the time.
Over the 20-year period from 1929 to 1948, the S&P 500 underperformed five-year Treasuries, and over the even longer 21-year period 1929-49, they underperformed long-term (20-year) Treasuries.
Over the 17-year period from 1966 to 1982, the S&P 500 underperformed five-year Treasuries (though it outperformed long-term Treasuries).
Over the 31+-year period 1990 through April 2020, the Japanese large stock index, which returned 0.0 percent, underperformed the Japanese bond index by 4.4 percent per year.
Over the 40-year period 1969-2008, U.S. large and small growth stocks (Fama-French research indexes), which returned 8.5 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, underperformed long-term Treasuries, which returned 8.9 percent.”
Source:
https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/is-it-really-stocks-for-the-long-run/
This is all of the reasons to have balanced portfolio and stay the course. We don’t know exactly when the market will return sub-optimal return and when it over performs.
Have your long term investment strategy. Write it down like your mission statement and stick to it. Especially during bad times, always stick to your long term strategy.
Problem with Igy is that he’s been stating that the market is over inflated for at least the past 5 years, but probably more like 8 years now. By timing the market, it’s costing too much. Way too much.
US stock market has returned 10%/year throughout its history. But you have to be in it the whole time instead of timing the market going in and out of it.
Igy may have been giving advice to invest in 2008. But it’s better to continue to be invested no matter the market condition. Truth is no one knows when it’s the best time to invest. People only know after the fact.
One other thing is, I like to hold some bonds to diversify. I personally like it as it does help me to stay the course much better. I know that at least when the market tanks, I’ve got my bonds to rebalance into my equity and buy low. It’s an automatic way to buy low, sell high.
Twostitch wrote:
One other thing is, I like to hold some bonds to diversify. I personally like it as it does help me to stay the course much better. I know that at least when the market tanks, I’ve got my bonds to rebalance into my equity and buy low. It’s an automatic way to buy low, sell high.
What returns do bonds get? What kind of bonds?
Swaglord369 wrote:
Supply lines set, tons of physical work needed, technology being applied rapidly providing deflationary pressure.
What do you mean by this?
Twostitch wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stocks have gone through long period of time where they lag the return of Treasury Bills. So the narrative of stocks for the long run is largely dependent time horizon, both entry and exit.
“There have been three periods of at least 13 years when the S&P 500 underperformed what is considered the riskless benchmark, one-month Treasury bills — the 15 years from 1929 to 1943, the 17 years from 1966-82, and the 13 years from 2000-12. That’s 45 total years out of the last 91. Of course, over the other 45 years, there were huge equity risk premiums. But the only way you earned those great returns was if you were there all the time.
Over the 20-year period from 1929 to 1948, the S&P 500 underperformed five-year Treasuries, and over the even longer 21-year period 1929-49, they underperformed long-term (20-year) Treasuries.
Over the 17-year period from 1966 to 1982, the S&P 500 underperformed five-year Treasuries (though it outperformed long-term Treasuries).
Over the 31+-year period 1990 through April 2020, the Japanese large stock index, which returned 0.0 percent, underperformed the Japanese bond index by 4.4 percent per year.
Over the 40-year period 1969-2008, U.S. large and small growth stocks (Fama-French research indexes), which returned 8.5 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, underperformed long-term Treasuries, which returned 8.9 percent.”
Source:
https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/is-it-really-stocks-for-the-long-run/This is all of the reasons to have balanced portfolio and stay the course. We don’t know exactly when the market will return sub-optimal return and when it over performs.
Have your long term investment strategy. Write it down like your mission statement and stick to it. Especially during bad times, always stick to your long term strategy.
Problem with Igy is that he’s been stating that the market is over inflated for at least the past 5 years, but probably more like 8 years now. By timing the market, it’s costing too much. Way too much.
US stock market has returned 10%/year throughout its history. But you have to be in it the whole time instead of timing the market going in and out of it.
Igy may have been giving advice to invest in 2008. But it’s better to continue to be invested no matter the market condition. Truth is no one knows when it’s the best time to invest. People only know after the fact.
I first posted on this thread in March 2015 when the S&P 500 was at 2,200 the same level it hit almost exactly five years later. After $7 Trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus the backdrop today is far worse. The Fed and the Government do not have your back, and they are powerless to influence the true ebb and flow of the economy and markets. All that foolish experimental policy has done nothing but drive assets into extremes that have never been seen before. How one responds to that will have personal consequences that will last well beyond the next decade. Almost universally investors disagree with that view. Of course those people are all in, or vested in selling you more of the same. Enough said.
Hardloper wrote:
Swaglord369 wrote:
Supply lines set, tons of physical work needed, technology being applied rapidly providing deflationary pressure.
What do you mean by this?
The entire paragraph strikes me as fantasy.
But good luck anyway.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
What do you mean by this?
The entire paragraph strikes me as fantasy.
The real economy is firing on all cylinders, and a spring with covid pretty much done + infrastructure and native chip investments in the US... how is this not a situation for sustained growth. There are no systemic issues lurking like in 2008. And it's not a super bubble like 2000.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Twostitch wrote:
This is all of the reasons to have balanced portfolio and stay the course. We don’t know exactly when the market will return sub-optimal return and when it over performs.
Have your long term investment strategy. Write it down like your mission statement and stick to it. Especially during bad times, always stick to your long term strategy.
Problem with Igy is that he’s been stating that the market is over inflated for at least the past 5 years, but probably more like 8 years now. By timing the market, it’s costing too much. Way too much.
US stock market has returned 10%/year throughout its history. But you have to be in it the whole time instead of timing the market going in and out of it.
Igy may have been giving advice to invest in 2008. But it’s better to continue to be invested no matter the market condition. Truth is no one knows when it’s the best time to invest. People only know after the fact.
I first posted on this thread in March 2015 when the S&P 500 was at 2,200 the same level it hit almost exactly five years later. After $7 Trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus the backdrop today is far worse. The Fed and the Government do not have your back, and they are powerless to influence the true ebb and flow of the economy and markets. All that foolish experimental policy has done nothing but drive assets into extremes that have never been seen before. How one responds to that will have personal consequences that will last well beyond the next decade. Almost universally investors disagree with that view. Of course those people are all in, or vested in selling you more of the same. Enough said.
Ok, market timer.
Best of luck with your prediction. Problem with your prediction is that you have been awfully wrong so far and even if you get it right, it may have cost you too much to make up for it.
You bringing up about March 2015 to March 2020 as market being flat is very comical to say the least. Way to cherry pick the lowest point and calling the market as being flat.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
Thanks for that info. We are looking to replace our current Camry with a new hybrid one. I feel we need the upgrade to get the modern safety tools that the car comes with. Now I just need to decide when to go for it…thinking about waiting for the 2023 model year.
Do you have a hard time staying in your lane?
Touché.
I do a fair amount of multi-hour driving in moderate-to-heavy traffic on interstates. So, yeah, I have drifted on occasion. Looking for forward protection, too. And more. Don’t hate me.
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