Down goes the Dow

FB continues to disappoint those that bought on the dip. I am actually surprised.

Flagpole wrote:

Sure things:

Death

Taxes

Iggy is a permabear

Bears feel like they had their crowning achievement stolen from them when the Federal Reserve supplied liquidity in 2008. The greatest, magnitude 10 finger wagging "I Told You So" was so close, and they've never really forgotten or forgiven.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:FB continues to disappoint those that bought on the dip. I am actually surprised.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Sure things:

Death

Taxes

Iggy is a permabear

I am not a perma bear. I bet in March 2009 you were slightly less optimistic. I suspect you will revisit that mood as the year progresses.

to be fair Igy had three of the best recent calls:

long XLE

long Hussman (but then held on too long. But the fund had great runs in 2021 and 2022)

long SARK/short ARKK

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:FB continues to disappoint those that bought on the dip. I am actually surprised.

I paid close attention when gente weighed in on FB last week and dropped it pretty quick. I'm not sure what I was thinking, I've been trying hard to avoid trading for over a year; old habits die hard...

isn't the problem with FB that some new Apple rule has permanently lowered FB's profitability?

I don't understand it completely, but FB has lost the ability to sell some highly targeted ads.

for an ad-seller....that sounds very bad.

agip wrote:

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

I paid close attention when gente weighed in on FB last week and dropped it pretty quick. I'm not sure what I was thinking, I've been trying hard to avoid trading for over a year; old habits die hard...

isn't the problem with FB that some new Apple rule has permanently lowered FB's profitability?

I don't understand it completely, but FB has lost the ability to sell some highly targeted ads.

for an ad-seller....that sounds very bad.

Yes, and now they're trying to strong arm the EU and demanding data lol.

Google saw the writing on the wall a couple years ago and decided to abandon further development of personal cookie tracking in favor of newer technologies that would basically allow the same type of result through anonymous tracking of general groups instead of at the individual level. Advertisers don't care because the hit rate is basically the same, so they continue to pay up. Facebook on the other hand just did nothing except through their hands up and basically give up.

Prof. Racket wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Sure things:

Death

Taxes

Iggy is a permabear

Bears feel like they had their crowning achievement stolen from them when the Federal Reserve supplied liquidity in 2008. The greatest, magnitude 10 finger wagging "I Told You So" was so close, and they've never really forgotten or forgiven.

That is so wrong, at least with me. I bought significant amounts of MS, MS pref, and SSO fall 2008 thru spring 2009. Only mistake I made is like XLE, selling to soon. I never could imagine we would do this all over again, and the Fed to be so stupid to encourage it.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I am not a perma bear. I bet in March 2009 you were slightly less optimistic. I suspect you will revisit that mood as the year progresses.

to be fair Igy had three of the best recent calls:

long XLE

long Hussman (but then held on too long. But the fund had great runs in 2021 and 2022)

long SARK/short ARKK

Thanks, but you are only as good as your last trade. I have a significant amount in HSGFX that I do not plan to sell over the next couple of years. That investment may give plenty of opportunities to poke fun at Igy.

Prof. Racket wrote:

It's not really a traditional "bubble." Everyone realized the value of owning a home and having your own space and a yard during the pandemic, and piled into an already stressed housing market. The supply is just not even close to matching demand.

Exactly, the housing price index for condos in Seattle is basically flat (still below 2018 peak), with single-family homes increasing 20%, and larger/newer houses in far out suburbs gaining more like 40%.

agip wrote:

would be a hoot if Hobbes was right in the end and more and higher populations have outstripped the ability of the planet to support them. Well not a hoot but ironic in some way.

“I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” (GS commodity trader) Currie said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

Futures curves in several markets are trading in super-backwardation -- a structure that indicates traders are paying bumper premiums for immediate supply. The downward sloping shape in prices is generally taken to mean commodities are severely undersupplied.

Changing the subject, I seem to recall you ruminating on total bond index history. You can download historical data for VBMFX on Yahoo Finance back to 12/1986. Portfolio Visualizer will give you the monthly Total Return History as well and you can click on the drawdown function. PV uses end of the month price so you will miss short term drops like the 9 day 6.5% in 3/2020. Current drawdown began 8/7/2020 and is at 5.36% as of friday. 1987 was wild, from 2/18 to 10/14 lost 7.82%, rallied after the great stock market crash.

Also here is a chart of 1 month change in a hypothetical 10 year zero coupon treasury bond. A regular 10 yr would not be as severe or stellar, but it will how volatile the 70s and 80s were.

I would say the investment decision of the week is to buy or sell the market in advance of the Thursday’s CPI print. Not sure how to play that.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I would say the investment decision of the week is to buy or sell the market in advance of the Thursday’s CPI print. Not sure how to play that.

The Fed and the Department of Labor are conspiring on it right now. Just like the good old days with Alan Greenspan and Robert Reich.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Sure things:

Death

Taxes

Iggy is a permabear

I am not a perma bear. I bet in March 2009 you were slightly less optimistic. I suspect you will revisit that mood as the year progresses.

1) Yes you are.

2) In 2009 I did what I have always done...kept investing. Didn't sell. Actually bought MORE in 2008 than normally was planned for that year.

3) Where you are wrong about investing is entering "optimism" into the equation. You invest today for tomorrow. You do so unwaveringly. You do not change your investing minimums based on how you feel the market is doing or even how it is actually doing. If you have extra cash and want to invest MORE during a correction, then that's a good idea. Never sell until you retire. Optimism doesn't enter into the equation. Invest, invest, invest. IF you want to, become more conservative with your investments within 5 years of retirement.

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I would say the investment decision of the week is to buy or sell the market in advance of the Thursday’s CPI print. Not sure how to play that.

The Fed and the Department of Labor are conspiring on it right now. Just like the good old days with Alan Greenspan and Robert Reich.

You may be right. The Bureau of Labor Statistics were going to use a recent experience to calculate those numbers. Even so companies like Tyson are daily announcing major price increases. I would imagine your HEB grocery basket is up 10-20% in recent months.

Flagpole wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I am not a perma bear. I bet in March 2009 you were slightly less optimistic. I suspect you will revisit that mood as the year progresses.

1) Yes you are.

2) In 2009 I did what I have always done...kept investing. Didn't sell. Actually bought MORE in 2008 than normally was planned for that year.

3) Where you are wrong about investing is entering "optimism" into the equation. You invest today for tomorrow. You do so unwaveringly. You do not change your investing minimums based on how you feel the market is doing or even how it is actually doing. If you have extra cash and want to invest MORE during a correction, then that's a good idea. Never sell until you retire. Optimism doesn't enter into the equation. Invest, invest, invest. IF you want to, become more conservative with your investments within 5 years of retirement.

I have no beef with most of that, other than the perma bear label. But you like to label people you disagree with; a personality trait, even though you are convinced you have none. I believe I am about 15 years older than you, so in a way I am just following your advice.

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I would say the investment decision of the week is to buy or sell the market in advance of the Thursday’s CPI print. Not sure how to play that.

The Fed and the Department of Labor are conspiring on it right now. Just like the good old days with Alan Greenspan and Robert Reich.

I heard JFK is in on it too

Prof. Racket wrote:

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

The Fed and the Department of Labor are conspiring on it right now. Just like the good old days with Alan Greenspan and Robert Reich.

I heard JFK is in on it too

Sr or Jr; or better yet both. Too lazy to do a McMahon reaction meme.

gracias gente

eyeballing the monthly returns over decades, it looks like the fund has indeed lost 2 or3% in a handful of months over the last decades. So it's rare but not unheard of.

Although I do wonder about dividends with that fund...it pays out most of its return in dividends...I hope that data captures that and doesn't go just by NAV.

Value continues to roll:

1 year:

Schwab large cap index: +15%

Median of a few value/dividend ETFs: +23%

Seems sort of counterintuitive...now that you can get 2% from safe treasuries...shouldn't that hurt dividend paying stocks because to get their 2-3% dividend you have to take mucho risk? But I get the other reasons.

(DTD/SCHD/VTV)