Down goes the Dow

Control dilution, by the way, Softbank sold over 2 million shares, Capital Group bought over 600,000 shares recently.

But if you insist, here's a chart of AMZN from 1/3 to 2/2 followed by an intraday 1 minute chart for 1/24. Just change the dates if you want to check other days. Good luck finding your "smoking gun".

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.ft.com/content/6ad7b79e-e606-4daa-baa3-9bf219aad3cf

One of our largest holdings over the last 20 years is VEIRX. Ran the TD Ameritrade portfolio X-Ray at the end of the year; big cap tech was like 2% of our stock portfolio.

Maybe they thought they could Cancel their order, you know, like you can on Amazon.,

I always just say "Order created by Mistake" and it works like a charm.

Don't underestimate the importance of the learning curve in switching amongst new platforms, esp. those they haven't used since 2012 or so.

okay, attempts at humor aside, why would Amazon do the buyback essentially in January of this year?

It begs the question, why wouldn't they?

I've read that they have had buy back programs in place since they last bought back shares in 2012.

Of course January provided a good buying opportunity with the market tanking, and their stock price having remained flat for well over a year, making it even more attractive.

And secondly, of course they know they are on the eve of releasing stellar results. In that regard, it's almost inconceivable that they wouldn't jump on this, holding insider information that only they have (presumably).

It almost seems that trading in such fashion would be prohibited.

Tell me I'm missing something, because it just seems too easy (?)

But the housing market changes largely because the economy and the perception changes. In the 1950s, it would be considered high status to live in Detroit and low status to live in Brooklyn (NY). In 2006, it would be considered a sign of status to own a condo in Las Vegas; nowadays nobody cares and they wonder why someone would want a condo in the middle of a desert. Today, it would be considered cool to live in Boise, but it wasn't cool a couple years ago. What those cities "have to offer" hasn't changed. Saying that the cities offer "high-paying jobs" brings up the question of how many of these jobs are now considered remote work and how long it will take for either compensation to depress or the highly compensated work to become much more geographically distributed. Type A personalities will always want to live in expensive areas among high-status people, and will justify it by saying they like being "near ski slopes" for the 2 or 3 times per year that they hit the overcrowded slopes in Washington state. Buffalo, NY used to be one of the largest cities in the U.S., disappeared off the map, but is making a comeback. We don't know what types of new jobs will exist a decade from now or if they will necessitate on-site work. Silicon Valley could be Old Economy (It's already looking that way ...). Every dog has its day, as the saying goes. We're at or nearing some transition phase for the economy. There's a new playbook to be written and we don't know what the play is for primary residence in real estate.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it would seem you are elaborating on your earlier statement "True that housing crashes are always a local phenomenon." and whereby another poster sited how the 2009 housing bubble (if not other trends) was largely a national phenomenon.

I'd contend that local markets go through phases, sometimes they're hotter than other locales relatively, sometimes they cool off. Surely lots of that has to do with growth prospects in that area or lack thereof.

But I would hardly call much of that "crashes", except maybe in the case of Detroit. That was unique.

That aside, local markets go through trends and no doubt that will continue.

Nationally, in terms of inflection points, not sure how one could be too confident about that.

Yea, the median house (+ condo) price in Las Vegas previously peaked in late 2006 and didn't return to that level until 2021. If you adjust for inflation, it still hasn't returned to its previous high. And it's still expensive, nationally speaking. Seattle hit a top a year later, in late 2007, and made it back to that level by 2015. So the previous crash took a year for the ripple effect to make it from one city to another. The effect was not the same, as the median price in Vegas went down ~60% while the price in Seattle went down only ~25%. As Hardloper said, it's not necessarily sound advice to "wait for a crash." After all, if housing crashes, there's a good chance people are losing their jobs, and there's no "buying opportunity" if you don't have a job. Housing is high now mainly because there is lots of money chasing few houses. The money will probably dry up and housing will cool as a result. That doesn't mean it's any better or worse for homebuyers as a whole. It's all individual. If you work in a stable industry like healthcare, your homebuying position is better. If you work in an industry where more than half of your compensation is bonuses and company stock and you reach a "stock cliff" at your current job and the job market becomes really bad, you're in a worse position.

The biggest reason that housing prices are high are low interest rates. People buy a housing payment. If interest rates move higher housing prices will contract.

seattle prattle wrote:

Maybe they thought they could Cancel their order, you know, like you can on Amazon.,

I always just say "Order created by Mistake" and it works like a charm.

Don't underestimate the importance of the learning curve in switching amongst new platforms, esp. those they haven't used since 2012 or so.

okay, attempts at humor aside, why would Amazon do the buyback essentially in January of this year?

It begs the question, why wouldn't they?

I've read that they have had buy back programs in place since they last bought back shares in 2012.

Of course January provided a good buying opportunity with the market tanking, and their stock price having remained flat for well over a year, making it even more attractive.

And secondly, of course they know they are on the eve of releasing stellar results. In that regard, it's almost inconceivable that they wouldn't jump on this, holding insider information that only they have (presumably).

It almost seems that trading in such fashion would be prohibited.

Tell me I'm missing something, because it just seems too easy (?)[/quote]

Efficiently Managing Dilution pg6

They didn't have stellar results; 1st International quarterly sales decrease YoY ever, 1st N.A. Q Operating Income loss ( $206 million ) since at least 2016 ( I only went as far back as Q1 2017 ).

There's no way ex-ante to know the state of the market on earnings release; individual stock movement before earnings release and market reaction to the release.

It's not like AMZN is now going to sell the shares they bought.

I posted this Thur nite; in case you missed it.

Efficiently Managing Dilution pg6

They didn't have stellar results; 1st International quarterly sales decrease YoY ever, 1st N.A. Q Operating Income loss ( $206 million ) since at least 2016 ( I only went as far back as Q1 2017 ).

There's no way ex-ante to know the state of the market on earnings release; individual stock movement before earnings release and market reaction to the release.

It's not like AMZN is now going to sell the shares they bought.

I posted this Thur nite; in case you missed it.

]

Thank you.

Not on your top-ten list, I take it.

AMZN “earnings” about as real as Bezos physique. All puffed up for a good look. The American way.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The biggest reason that housing prices are high are low interest rates. People buy a housing payment. If interest rates move higher housing prices will contract.

No, the reason they are high is because there is high demand and no supply. Lots of high paying jobs in a small area with no more land to build. Houses in the Boston area have been expensive since the 90s. Doesn't matter if mortgage rates are 2.5% or 7%, the prices will keep going up.

Las Vegas doesn't surprise me, who wants to live in that desert with terrible school system?

My town has literally 5 homes for sale right now.

The prices are:

1.85mil

1.15mil

1.15mil

650k

540k

And they will all sell within a month. Those 1mil+ homes aren't selling just because interest rates are low.

investing noob wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The biggest reason that housing prices are high are low interest rates. People buy a housing payment. If interest rates move higher housing prices will contract.

No, the reason they are high is because there is high demand and no supply. Lots of high paying jobs in a small area with no more land to build. Houses in the Boston area have been expensive since the 90s. Doesn't matter if mortgage rates are 2.5% or 7%, the prices will keep going up.

Las Vegas doesn't surprise me, who wants to live in that desert with terrible school system?

Nice story promoted by real estate agents:

investing noob wrote:

Las Vegas doesn't surprise me, who wants to live in that desert with terrible school system?

Josh McDaniel

investing noob wrote:

My town has literally 5 homes for sale right now.

The prices are:

1.85mil

1.15mil

1.15mil

650k

540k

And they will all sell within a month. Those 1mil+ homes aren't selling just because interest rates are low.

A month? In some metro areas, most houses will stay on the market for a matter of hours. And the house listed at 1.15M will sell for 1.7M.