Down goes the Dow

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

If AMZN rolls over you can bury this bull.

I haven't caught up with reading the rest of the thread yet, but I gotta stop right here and say, that was a particularly good one, Igy! Like laughing out loud, good one.

Thx.

Well seeing it was down 8% yesterday, and when I posted up 11% on the day. And, I would say there is a good chance AMZN will still roll over in the next week. What is the one year performance on AMZN?

AMZN past year-3.32%…..

I got stopped out of FB at 239

I had very little confidence so kept raising the stop, then went to lunch.

These big stocks these days. Never can tell. I have little faith.

agip wrote:

Maser wrote:

lol I put a bunch to ride on FB, with a stop at 232

I feel like I'm at an OTB

I heard Melvin Capital, the giant hedge fund that had to be bailed out after shorting GME at exactly the wrong time....bought a truckload of FB last month.

Could be curtains for ol'Melvin. If true.

MELVIN! Hadn’t thought of them in a year.

FB, though. It’s a trade waiting to happen. I feel like re-buying, I will have to watch what it’s doing.

Re that synopsis, I pretty much agree with what it means for the markets. Lol DGTD now has its own consensus view😁

The key will be the inflation numbers, imo

I used to try to set limit buy orders a little below current trading price to get a bit of an edge, but it used to rarely work.

What i have found more recently is that limit buys placed a bit below current price are placing way, way more often than they used to, and I take that to mean that there is simply a lot more volatility and short term trades pushing prices around,

SO I am not surprised this happened in your case.

In a case like yours, I would just buy it back if you feel good about the direction in the ensuing hours.

seattle prattle wrote:

I used to try to set limit buy orders a little below current trading price to get a bit of an edge, but it used to rarely work.

What i have found more recently is that limit buys placed a bit below current price are placing way, way more often than they used to, and I take that to mean that there is simply a lot more volatility and short term trades pushing prices around,

SO I am not surprised this happened in your case.

In a case like yours, I would just buy it back if you feel good about the direction in the ensuing hours.

sell stops are an almost guaranteed way to sell your shares.

which could be good, if you don't have the discipline to do at the market.

Anyway, after all that, if we close here, the SPX will have risen 2% for the week. Why does it feel like a bad week? Bonds, I guess. And the worst day of the year, yesterday.

TLT is down 1.5% just today, and falling slowly. There are those who feel that bonds are the epic bubble, and from a certain perspective they may be right.

I usually put stops at what I feel ok losing, then to purchase price if a new level is established, then up a few %. When I see something taking off, I follow it closely with stops. Today though, I had a lunch that I couldn’t get out of, so left it where it was. Normally I would have gotten a few more bucks out of it, but tbh I thought leaving it down there would be ok, given where it was at, how it was trading, and how much room it has to run in the future , being down so much.

I will keep watching, the trade is probably still there.

I have to use stops because I have a lot going on.

Here’s a rise into Friday close again, it feels real.

seattle prattle wrote:

What i have found more recently is that limit buys placed a bit below current price are placing way, way more often than they used to, and I take that to mean that there is simply a lot more volatility and short term trades pushing prices around,

This is my experience too. More volatility? Better matching? Combo of the 2?

For sure, stops are not so good when considering short term moves, and it almost feels like the algos purposely take them out before a move upwards.

Another thing that works kind of mediocre, but not so well, really, is setting ALERTS through your brokerage account, in my case Ameritrade, and it will pop up a message on if I am logged onto my account on my phone or computer.

This stuff is time consuming.

Maser wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

What i have found more recently is that limit buys placed a bit below current price are placing way, way more often than they used to, and I take that to mean that there is simply a lot more volatility and short term trades pushing prices around,

This is my experience too. More volatility? Better matching? Combo of the 2?

There is just a lot of trading going on. Shorts are back after taking a prominent position on the 'endangered species' list, and nobody trusts the trends.

It used to be, 'i know this is crazy, but just buy'. Now, it's more like 'whatever it's doing, there will be reversal or two before the end of the session, or the open, or both.'

Or so it seems.

You guys smell that?

That's the smell of stocks only going up

Prof. Racket wrote:

You guys smell that?

That's the smell of stocks only going up, except when they go down

fify

But yes, this is good. My stupid trbcx was down over 5% yesterday!

Prof. Racket wrote:

You guys smell that?

That's the smell of stocks only going up

i've said it before but even a relatively flat week at this stage is a good sign. In the face of certain rate hikes, etc., that have not even started yet, the fact that the market will stop selling off is no small milestone.

A few days ago, buyers jumped in at the lure of the March 2020 rebound being so v-shaped and 'you blink and you missed it', and hit it hard. Then the big sell off later in the week, posing the question, was it a dead cat bounce?

The fact that we can level off is good mojo, imo.

Do any of you guys have experience using Yield Street or someone like that? I'm curious how often they hit their target returns. There always seems to be a catch on their real estate related funds - like 6% quarterly distributions and then the other 7-8% of their estimated 13-14% percent total return comes with the growth in asset when they sell it later. Seems rather sketchy but maybe I'm just over thinking it.

They have one that it secured by art (and not just junk, Warhols, etc.). I've never dabbled in stuff like this so I'm curious of other people's experiences.

agip wrote:

looks like the market thinks the jobs number will be gawdawful...could even be a negative number, b/c Omicron.

If it is a good number the market will likely move up a bit.

Question is if a bad jobs number will be tossed out as a temporary Omicron blip or used as yet another reason to sell.

Worst drop in over a year yesterday.

this was me before the jobs report, when the market was red

agip wrote:

I wonder if this amazon blowout will trigger some short covering in the COVID stocks - clearly people stayed home and spent money in COVID fashion.

People had left those stocks for dead but maybe they have some life in them.

Maybe buying ARKK as a trade might be a good idea.

this was me after the close on thursday, after amazon earnings.

I should have bought ARKK - up 5% today.

and it traded down after the open - big move up for it.

I'll add that BTC is up 11% today.

Some animal spirits returning to the market this week.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Well seeing it was down 8% yesterday, and when I posted up 11% on the day. And, I would say there is a good chance AMZN will still roll over in the next week. What is the one year performance on AMZN?

Music to my ears.

LoL got my Roth tax form. Made 145k worth of trades for $260 profit in 2021. Could have just bought AAPL and been up 50%.

Bought FB, MSFT and GOOGL for long holds today. Might as well. Will average down if they drop.

ETH almost 3k again 🚀