Down goes the Dow

Twostitch wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Lately Boomers have been big into SARK and Hussman. Not sure what that means for Millennial story stocks, crypto, NFTs, and always win stocks like Meta.

I’ve never heard of Hussman outside of this thread. Like, ever.

I’ve never heard of anyone mention him or the fund.

it's sort of an inside joke on this thread.

we've divided ourselves up into generations and needle each other.

Except for the Xers because no one cares about us.

Anyway, Igy meant (I think) that he, as a boomer, made a good call with Hussman this year, and any millennial on the thread should put down his phone and recognize that.

Maser wrote:

Even though bonds are down, I get the rationale for buying them—but in this environment of almost-certainly-rising rates, I would wait. Looks like agip’s bnd purchase was a few % premature, idk how big of a deal that is in the bond world.

I think there is more room to fall in those funds, esp if econ conditions worsen meaningfully and we start to see some defaults

I dunno...seems to me the inflation wave is cresting, so the pressure on rates to rise will dissipate.

I think buying bonds here makes sense. You look around the world and see the US having materially higher rates than peer nations...hard to imagine we will keep rising all that much. There's an almost unimaginable amount of money looking for every tenth of a point of yield it can find, and a positive 2% coupon probably looks pretty pretty good from a lot of perches. US bonds should attract a lot of money when inflation starts falling, which should keep rates in check and my bond purchase profitable.

So far I'm down something like 0.2%, which is not material.

ECB doesn’t rule out raising rates, and BoE actually does raise them. BoC left them unchanged, so far.

USD I think will dip until the Fed actually raises. March?

NASDAQ open looks to be pushing my idiot-genius needle further from idiot territory... :-)

Our holdings have held steady as a rock the past couple of weeks through recent market gyrations, stabilized by the SQQQ I bought that neatly counterbalances our other holdings. This is either going to work out really well (genius!) over the next few months (if the market tanks) or really badly (idiot!) if markets scream upward.

What I wouldn't give to be able to read the future... I do call myself "idiot" for a reason though, suggesting you all are in for a great ride and I'm set to take a drubbing. :-)

Yep, good for you. I agree that the pressure will ease, but even if true, there will still be pressure.

But really, I agree with those who think that rates will not rise materially. Yes the US looks good compared to other bond markets, as long as the value of the dollar is maintained.

I guess the point of waiting a bit is to save that small percentage, but usually a major bond fund purchase is somewhat significant, at least among the people I know. That small percentage can add up.

Maser wrote:BoC left them [rates] unchanged, so far.

Not for long though. All signs point to several bumps this year, starting as soon as the next few weeks.

The open will be a bloodbath. My trbcx will be decimated!

I still think that SQQQ might work out for you. Did you get enough to make a difference?

Maser wrote:I still think that SQQQ might work out for you. Did you get enough to make a difference?

I got enough to hold protect our holdings, not to bet on a crash. Our holdings will do nothing of note in either direction until I sell the SQQQ. I don't have FOMO; at my age and the recent pace of family retirement discussions, I have FOLO. :-)

I’m pissed because I was a day late on things like Suncor. I still hope for a better opportunity, soon.

I wish I had bought 3x as much of everything as I did, but I thought I’d wait during this choppy time, for another opportunity. Hopefully it still works out

Today will be interesting, could go either way, even the Nasdaq

agip wrote:

Twostitch wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Lately Boomers have been big into SARK and Hussman. Not sure what that means for Millennial story stocks, crypto, NFTs, and always win stocks like Meta.

I’ve never heard of Hussman outside of this thread. Like, ever.

I’ve never heard of anyone mention him or the fund.

it's sort of an inside joke on this thread.

we've divided ourselves up into generations and needle each other.

Except for the Xers because no one cares about us.

Anyway, Igy meant (I think) that he, as a boomer, made a good call with Hussman this year, and any millennial on the thread should put down his phone and recognize that.[/]

And making fun of the self-anointed smartest guy in the room..

Maser wrote:

Today will be interesting, could go either way, even the Nasdaq

agreed

my tech bellwether ETF, VGT, is only down 1.2%. That's not a whole lot. It was trading below that 2 days ago. Before PYPL, FB and others blew up. Feels like we are in a risk-on phase.

agip wrote:

Maser wrote:

Today will be interesting, could go either way, even the Nasdaq

agreed

my tech bellwether ETF, VGT, is only down 1.2%. That's not a whole lot. It was trading below that 2 days ago. Before PYPL, FB and others blew up. Feels like we are in a risk-on phase.

btw - first ever earnings result for FB where user count didn't grow

Picked up SU on a stink bid, down over 4%

agip wrote:

Maser wrote:

Today will be interesting, could go either way, even the Nasdaq

agreed

my tech bellwether ETF, VGT, is only down 1.2%. That's not a whole lot. It was trading below that 2 days ago. Before PYPL, FB and others blew up. Feels like we are in a risk-on phase.

I agree, but I get the sense that, like me, people are being picky and not necessarily buying funds but individual names instead

BTC now down over the last 365 days. That's probably a rare thing, although not unheard of, given its volatility.

US stocks up around 15% over the same period. So stocks are looking pretty good to the many who have lost money in crypto over the last year.

Today:

Vanguard Growth index ETF: -2.50%

Vanguard Value Index ETF: -0.43%

Value is working today anyway.

agip wrote:

BTC now down over the last 365 days. That's probably a rare thing, although not unheard of, given its volatility.

US stocks up around 15% over the same period. So stocks are looking pretty good to the many who have lost money in crypto over the last year.

Bitcoin break of $35k would signal resumption of “wild rumpus”…….

Anyone think FB looks like a good buy today? I guess I do.