Down goes the Dow

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

I should also add that I love a bear market almost as much as a bull. You are far more likely to get better values in individual stocks. I'm a youngish long term investor so a bear market means nothing but good news to me. I'm saying that trying to predict it and pull money out is generally a painful experience. You will only ever see Buffet slow down purchasing and take some gains. He'll never cash out or stop investing and he's the best there's ever been (because he's not a reactionary).

At the height of the Covid sell-off if you had gone in hard you basically doubled whatever you put into the market. Market declines are fantastic buying opportunities.

Exactly. I bought a lot of oil stocks at the bottom. Valero in the 30s? with a 10% dividend? Come one! It's over 80 in 2 years. Same for cruise stocks. Was this genius trading? Of course not. It's no more complicated that a simple point and figure chart. You buy, in general, in the bottom right corner. The only gamble on cruise lines was whether they would go bankrupt, but the value and ROI was worth the risk. Why wouldn't you take a small position at 30-32 on Royal Caribbean when it was at 120 and coming off it's best ever year?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

More appropriately, it brought the S&P to within 5% of the level it had reached in 2003, just 6 years earlier, and rapidly and consistently rebounded from there.

Positions built over time can safely navigate the markets at any given time, and cherry picking the bottom of major downturns to denote the finish/completion of an investment cycle will skew trends, exactly as you apparently intend.

While markets certainly carry the risk of a sustained downturn, your bleak prognostications do little in the way of advising how one might navigate those possibilities while also allowing for the very real possibility that the markets might appreciate from current levels.

That sentiment would be turned upside down if the market bottoms at 1,500 and does not reach a new durable high until 2035. It is all perspective.

AP5000 wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

At the height of the Covid sell-off if you had gone in hard you basically doubled whatever you put into the market. Market declines are fantastic buying opportunities.

Exactly. I bought a lot of oil stocks at the bottom. Valero in the 30s? with a 10% dividend? Come one! It's over 80 in 2 years. Same for cruise stocks. Was this genius trading? Of course not. It's no more complicated that a simple point and figure chart. You buy, in general, in the bottom right corner. The only gamble on cruise lines was whether they would go bankrupt, but the value and ROI was worth the risk. Why wouldn't you take a small position at 30-32 on Royal Caribbean when it was at 120 and coming off it's best ever year?

Wait, I agree with what you posted previously about market will continue to go up in the long run. The overall market will, but for you humble bragging about buying oil stocks and cruise stocks are very risky. Risky in that it may recover, but hard to say if they will outperform the entire market.

I’m just loling reading your comments. You’re a young investor with probably just little skin in the game, and you’re stating things with such confidence.

Come back when you actually have millions in portfolio and experience a drop, especially if you have a lot in individual stocks.

Let’s see how bold you are when you are down a million, and still buying cruise stocks at your perceived bottom.

Twostitch wrote:

Twostitch wrote:

Wait, I agree with what you posted previously about market will continue to go up in the long run. The overall market will, but for you humble bragging about buying oil stocks and cruise stocks are very risky. Risky in that it may recover, but hard to say if they will outperform the entire market.

I’m just loling reading your comments. You’re a young investor with probably just little skin in the game, and you’re stating things with such confidence.

Come back when you actually have millions in portfolio and experience a drop, especially if you have a lot in individual stocks.

Let’s see how bold you are when you are down a million, and still buying cruise stocks at your perceived bottom.

Funny you would think you know my particulars. I'm 42. I have been investing since I was 18. I have multiple millions in the market. I would call that skin in the game. Why is it you think I'm a young investor with no skin?

I specifically said I was taking risk on individual stocks. I am 100% right on the overall market. It's not debatable.

Buying oil stocks low is not particularly risky. The world uses, and will continue to use, a lot of oil for many more decades. There was no scenario that existed that I could see where Valero wasn't going to go back up given enough time. Buying cruise stocks was risky and I pointed out that was risky. Those are individual stocks. I, like a lot of people, buy them from time to time. My biggest position, as should everyone's who isn't a professional investor, is the SP 500. Me risking a small position (I said previously was a small position) is a very small overall risk to my portfolio.

Twostitch wrote:

Twostitch wrote:

Wait, I agree with what you posted previously about market will continue to go up in the long run. The overall market will, but for you humble bragging about buying oil stocks and cruise stocks are very risky. Risky in that it may recover, but hard to say if they will outperform the entire market.

I’m just loling reading your comments. You’re a young investor with probably just little skin in the game, and you’re stating things with such confidence.

Come back when you actually have millions in portfolio and experience a drop, especially if you have a lot in individual stocks.

Let’s see how bold you are when you are down a million, and still buying cruise stocks at your perceived bottom.

Twostich - I'm not an idiot so I don't fill up a portfolio with a lot of individual stocks. I've experienced the same drops, and more importantly, gains as you. My entire premise is you have to be a complete fool to sell when the market is dropping and you cannot time the market. You will not find a single reputable broker who would advise this.

Sold the rest of my SARK for 18% profit. Could have sold all for over 30% but got greedy. Got a little MSFT. Still holding cash. Sad I missed VTI under 215.

GOOG up 7% after hours on earnings.

20-1 stock split

That will help the market, if it holds through the conf call.

agip wrote:

GOOG up 7% after hours on earnings.

20-1 stock split

That will help the market, if it holds through the conf call.

NIce!

Amazon up next on Thursday.

Honestly, I think we agree more than disagree. I just find it funny that you’re preaching on about investing in the market(which I agree) then, you go on to humble brag about picking up oil stocks and cruise stocks. It is risky in a sense that it’ll underperform compared to the entire market. That’s the risk.

AP5000 wrote:

Twostitch wrote:

I’m just loling reading your comments. You’re a young investor with probably just little skin in the game, and you’re stating things with such confidence.

Come back when you actually have millions in portfolio and experience a drop, especially if you have a lot in individual stocks.

Let’s see how bold you are when you are down a million, and still buying cruise stocks at your perceived bottom.

Twostich - I'm not an idiot so I don't fill up a portfolio with a lot of individual stocks. I've experienced the same drops, and more importantly, gains as you. My entire premise is you have to be a complete fool to sell when the market is dropping and you cannot time the market. You will not find a single reputable broker who would advise this.

Yes, I agree. What’s up with your straw man argument of not finding a single reputable broker who would advise to sell when market is dropping or timing the market?

The whole premise of me replying to you commenting about investing in the market without timing the market(which I agree) then you go on about bragging on your individual stock picking. If it’s a very small portion of your portfolio, then who cares? So you invested like $100K and gained little bit vs your gains from investing in the overall market?

AP5000 I agree that you’re young with not much in.

I could take issue with many things you have said, but you’re so full of yourself that it wouldn’t be worth it. Instead, I would direct you to the history of this thread, where people have addressed in some way many of the issues you think you are raising.

I will give you but a single example of your young/not-worth-much bias: yes if you are out those 10 days you miss 90% of the gains (just illustrative)...but you totally failed to raise the issue of how much drawdown you miss if you are out during the 10 worst days of the market.

This evidences your psychology, which suggests your position. And it goes much deeper than this—even this example is more nuanced than I will get into here.

Keep going and good luck, but maybe try not to be so cocksure. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, and the older you get, the more over-confident young guys you remember having gotten wiped out.

In fairness, I know a retiree who thinks more-or-less like you do. 65, good health, hopes to live through a few more gain cycles...but he is the second-cheapest guy I know, so he could survive it. No family, no kids, literally wears the same jacket he wore in high school. Multi-millionaire.

The cheapest guy I know has way more money than that guy, is in his early 80’s, and hasn’t worn socks since the 80’s because he thinks they’re extravagant!

This ramp into close again is another hopeful sign IMO. Not as good as a Friday, but still good.

Did a bit more buying today...some RSGUF on a somewhat low bid, etc. Looking to do some more tomorrow.

Lol trbcx up 8.6% in 3 days.

Still far from enough, though! It’s like ARKK-lite.

Maser wrote:

This ramp into close again is another hopeful sign IMO. Not as good as a Friday, but still good.

Did a bit more buying today...some RSGUF on a somewhat low bid, etc. Looking to do some more tomorrow.

I thought very much the same, and was frankly reassured that most of the day was just ever so slightly down without selling off. All of which is to say that some support building can be as critical as the rallies.

It's funny how the Nasdaq is having slightly better days than tech. Like by a percent of so. Tomorrow may be different, though, as Google instills some confidence back into the sector.

Wow AMD up 30% since Friday. Crazy.

investing noob wrote:

Wow AMD up 30% since Friday. Crazy.

Perfectly normal, like still being down 30% from the 52 week high.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

investing noob wrote:

Wow AMD up 30% since Friday. Crazy.

Perfectly normal, like still being down 30% from the 52 week high.

AMD has been a meme stock since 2014. Gaining and losing 30% in a year is just kinda what it does.

Try to keep up