Down goes the Dow

Looks like they’ve “turned those machines back ON!!”

Will be interesting to see what the rest of the day brings.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I trade in and out of it. Sold some in the morning, bought some back at the close. General belief is the bear market has started and will get worse over the next 18-24 months. Unlikely to go in a straight line though.

The world is littered with people who think a bear market is about to start. They are almost always wrong. The reality is there's no cheap alternative to stocks. Real estate is crazy high, crypto is a volatile joke with no intrinsic value, gold isn't a good value, bonds and other back securities aren't good values. There's simply no alternative right now where any rational person would bet their money.

AP5000 wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I trade in and out of it. Sold some in the morning, bought some back at the close. General belief is the bear market has started and will get worse over the next 18-24 months. Unlikely to go in a straight line though.

The world is littered with people who think a bear market is about to start. They are almost always wrong. The reality is there's no cheap alternative to stocks. Real estate is crazy high, crypto is a volatile joke with no intrinsic value, gold isn't a good value, bonds and other back securities aren't good values. There's simply no alternative right now where any rational person would bet their money.

How about ibonds?

Can't one say stocks are crazy high just like real estate?

AP5000 wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I trade in and out of it. Sold some in the morning, bought some back at the close. General belief is the bear market has started and will get worse over the next 18-24 months. Unlikely to go in a straight line though.

The world is littered with people who think a bear market is about to start. They are almost always wrong. The reality is there's no cheap alternative to stocks. Real estate is crazy high, crypto is a volatile joke with no intrinsic value, gold isn't a good value, bonds and other back securities aren't good values. There's simply no alternative right now where any rational person would bet their money.

Most stock investors believe like you. Reality is something far different than your theory. There is nothing that makes stocks a cheaper alternative, in fact that can be demonstrably proven to be a false assumption.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I would continue to monitor Bitcoin as a sentiment indicator. A bullish return to $45k or rollover under $30k, or continued chop $35k to $42k, or thereabouts.

Props to Igy on calling BTC a sentiment indicator. I am amazed how closely correlated BTC has been lately with US markets. Each burp and fart of SP500 or NASDAQ throughout the day produces blips in BTC. I find this remarkable, and I wish I understood it...

investing noob wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

The world is littered with people who think a bear market is about to start. They are almost always wrong. The reality is there's no cheap alternative to stocks. Real estate is crazy high, crypto is a volatile joke with no intrinsic value, gold isn't a good value, bonds and other back securities aren't good values. There's simply no alternative right now where any rational person would bet their money.

How about ibonds?

Can't one say stocks are crazy high just like real estate?

Yes, stocks are most certainly over valued right now, but that doesn't mean anything in a market with no proper alternatives. Markets that are overvalued can easily go on for 5 more years. There's a reason stock markets always go up over enough time. Bulls always win. It's as sure as the sun will come up tomorrow.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I would continue to monitor Bitcoin as a sentiment indicator. A bullish return to $45k or rollover under $30k, or continued chop $35k to $42k, or thereabouts.

Props to Igy on calling BTC a sentiment indicator. I am amazed how closely correlated BTC has been lately with US markets. Each burp and fart of SP500 or NASDAQ throughout the day produces blips in BTC. I find this remarkable, and I wish I understood it...

I see it as an indicator of investor sentiment. I would expect to see it roll back over by week’s end.

AP5000 wrote:

investing noob wrote:

How about ibonds?

Can't one say stocks are crazy high just like real estate?

Yes, stocks are most certainly over valued right now, but that doesn't mean anything in a market with no proper alternatives. Markets that are overvalued can easily go on for 5 more years. There's a reason stock markets always go up over enough time. Bulls always win. It's as sure as the sun will come up tomorrow.

Bulls don’t always win. All you are doing is looking backward from the biggest equity bubble in history, and assuming that is your future. Most likely a very incorrect assumption.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

The world is littered with people who think a bear market is about to start. They are almost always wrong. The reality is there's no cheap alternative to stocks. Real estate is crazy high, crypto is a volatile joke with no intrinsic value, gold isn't a good value, bonds and other back securities aren't good values. There's simply no alternative right now where any rational person would bet their money.

Most stock investors believe like you. Reality is something far different than your theory. There is nothing that makes stocks a cheaper alternative, in fact that can be demonstrably proven to be a false assumption.

I'm not quite sure what you mean. If by most investors you mean bulls who are, and always wi dominate bears then yes. My theory is not a theory, it's a fact of the current time. It's not always like this but it's like this right now. One of the biggest indicators of a market run ending is how quickly the market recovers. The market has responded responding to each recent drop and climbed well beyond what it was prior to said drop. Of course a bull market is going to end at some point, but trying to call that is foolish and nearly always wrong. You tell me any single person who has timed the market correctly each time and I'll call you a liar because that person doesn't exist. In fact it's the exact opposite. There are so many people the last 5 years who said it would end at some specific SP 500 number or Dow number and they all been wrong.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I would continue to monitor Bitcoin as a sentiment indicator. A bullish return to $45k or rollover under $30k, or continued chop $35k to $42k, or thereabouts.

Props to Igy on calling BTC a sentiment indicator. I am amazed how closely correlated BTC has been lately with US markets. Each burp and fart of SP500 or NASDAQ throughout the day produces blips in BTC. I find this remarkable, and I wish I understood it...

No propos for Igy.

Is it a sentiment indicator, or is it merely trending in similar fashion?

I say the latter, - it's just following the same trend as the stock market., not in advance of it.

I just did a comparison between bitcoin trust (GBTC) trading on the Nasdaq in comparison to SNP 500 and Nasdaq over 5 day and one month, and it is exactly same trend lines, but not in advance of them, with a few wild fluctuations thrown in for whatever reason, that soon corrected.

link:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

Yes, stocks are most certainly over valued right now, but that doesn't mean anything in a market with no proper alternatives. Markets that are overvalued can easily go on for 5 more years. There's a reason stock markets always go up over enough time. Bulls always win. It's as sure as the sun will come up tomorrow.

Bulls don’t always win. All you are doing is looking backward from the biggest equity bubble in history, and assuming that is your future. Most likely a very incorrect assumption.

Dude...bulls always always always win over enough time. That's a fact you can't argue against. If it wasn't true the Dow wouldn't keep going up. The SP wouldn't hit 4,800. Bulls don't always win in short durations but the market always go up over long enough. That's why all the really wealthy people are wealthy. Because they invested for decades, not years.

I should also add that I love a bear market almost as much as a bull. You are far more likely to get better values in individual stocks. I'm a youngish long term investor so a bear market means nothing but good news to me. I'm saying that trying to predict it and pull money out is generally a painful experience. You will only ever see Buffet slow down purchasing and take some gains. He'll never cash out or stop investing and he's the best there's ever been (because he's not a reactionary).

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

Yes, stocks are most certainly over valued right now, but that doesn't mean anything in a market with no proper alternatives. Markets that are overvalued can easily go on for 5 more years. There's a reason stock markets always go up over enough time. Bulls always win. It's as sure as the sun will come up tomorrow.

Bulls don’t always win. All you are doing is looking backward from the biggest equity bubble in history, and assuming that is your future. Most likely a very incorrect assumption.

Since you've been saying that on this very message board, millionaires have been created, cashed out, doubled down, and moved on.

Even if there was a correction, the opportunities that have been discounted and missed would stun most among us.

Nothing can change that.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bulls don’t always win. All you are doing is looking backward from the biggest equity bubble in history, and assuming that is your future. Most likely a very incorrect assumption.

Since you've been saying that on this very message board, millionaires have been created, cashed out, doubled down, and moved on.

Even if there was a correction, the opportunities that have been discounted and missed would stun most among us.

Nothing can change that.

It didn’t workout that way in 2009, taking the S&P 500 back to 1996 levels. Yes I know, that is ancient history.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Since you've been saying that on this very message board, millionaires have been created, cashed out, doubled down, and moved on.

Even if there was a correction, the opportunities that have been discounted and missed would stun most among us.

Nothing can change that.

It didn’t workout that way in 2009, taking the S&P 500 back to 1996 levels. Yes I know, that is ancient history.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1488195323491233803?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

You say this and yet the SP was over 4,800 a few days ago. I know you know the bulls always win. Its absurd to argue against it. How else would we get 4,800 after that crash in 2009 and all of the prior ones? The bulls keep buying and blow the levels thru the roof each and every time. It's like you are blinding yourself on this to both logic and historical data.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Since you've been saying that on this very message board, millionaires have been created, cashed out, doubled down, and moved on.

Even if there was a correction, the opportunities that have been discounted and missed would stun most among us.

Nothing can change that.

It didn’t workout that way in 2009, taking the S&P 500 back to 1996 levels. Yes I know, that is ancient history.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1488195323491233803?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

More appropriately, it brought the S&P to within 5% of the level it had reached in 2003, just 6 years earlier, and rapidly and consistently rebounded from there.

Positions built over time can safely navigate the markets at any given time, and cherry picking the bottom of major downturns to denote the finish/completion of an investment cycle will skew trends, exactly as you apparently intend.

While markets certainly carry the risk of a sustained downturn, your bleak prognostications do little in the way of advising how one might navigate those possibilities while also allowing for the very real possibility that the markets might appreciate from current levels.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It didn’t workout that way in 2009, taking the S&P 500 back to 1996 levels. Yes I know, that is ancient history.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1488195323491233803?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

More appropriately, it brought the S&P to within 5% of the level it had reached in 2003, just 6 years earlier, and rapidly and consistently rebounded from there.

Positions built over time can safely navigate the markets at any given time, and cherry picking the bottom of major downturns to denote the finish/completion of an investment cycle will skew trends, exactly as you apparently intend.

While markets certainly carry the risk of a sustained downturn, your bleak prognostications do little in the way of advising how one might navigate those possibilities while also allowing for the very real possibility that the markets might appreciate from current levels.

That sentiment would be turned upside down if the market bottoms at 1,500 and does not reach a new durable high until 2035. It is all perspective.

seattle prattle wrote:No propos for Igy.

Is it a sentiment indicator, or is it merely trending in similar fashion?

I say the latter, - it's just following the same trend as the stock market., not in advance of it.

I don't think I said Igy was predicting the future, but he did point out an interesting very strong correlation that I hadn't noticed before and have been marveling at the past week or so.

Those wild fluctuations away from the correlation, do they represent trading opportunities, I wonder?

AP5000 wrote:

I should also add that I love a bear market almost as much as a bull. You are far more likely to get better values in individual stocks. I'm a youngish long term investor so a bear market means nothing but good news to me. I'm saying that trying to predict it and pull money out is generally a painful experience. You will only ever see Buffet slow down purchasing and take some gains. He'll never cash out or stop investing and he's the best there's ever been (because he's not a reactionary).

At the height of the Covid sell-off if you had gone in hard you basically doubled whatever you put into the market. Market declines are fantastic buying opportunities.