Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

a strange color on my screens. It's sort of like the color of grass or maybe closer to the bottom signal of a traffic light. I'm not familiar with it so I am concerned.

Weird stuff happening. What's next?

It's called dead cat bounce aka false hope!

agip wrote:

a strange color on my screens. It's sort of like the color of grass or maybe closer to the bottom signal of a traffic light. I'm not familiar with it so I am concerned.

Weird stuff happening. What's next?

i know, right.,

Call me naïve, but this really feels like we put in a bottom.

As for small caps, I was getting around to selling them last, after the tech. So still have just about all, sold a little this morning, Now I'm thinking this rebound may have legs and to hold on? Even start adding back in?

I think things will head south from here into the close. I sense no broad-based optimism.

I have been buying again—Danone, Glaxo, Rogers Sugar, etc. Averaging into all these positions when they are, say, 2% or more down on the day, more or less. Yes other factors are at play.

Idiot, appreciate the offer but there are some things from which I need to stay away. I did make an acquaintance a totally inappropriate $20 bet, though. It has a 45-day timeframe having started on Tuesday.

Btw you might want to look at Rogers Sugar, if you haven’t already.

Maser wrote:Idiot, appreciate the offer but there are some things from which I need to stay away.

No problem, You have my best, free (if cryptic) opinion that all are welcome to value or devalue as they like. :-)

I suppose times like these are when you try to look a year or two down the road and ask yourself if, say, the 2025 version of yourself will be glad you bought some shares when stocks were down 11% in that correction you no longer have any memory of.

agip wrote:I suppose times like these are when you try to look a year or two down the road and ask yourself if, say, the 2025 version of yourself will be glad you sold some shares when stocks were down only 11% in that correction you no longer have any memory of.

Adjusted for the opposing point of view...

SARK is mainstream now.

investing noob wrote:SARK is mainstream now.

Cramer is a carnival barker, a snake oil salesman. Buyer beware...

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:Cramer is a carnival barker...

And also a lagging indicator, with above-average skill for predicting the past.

seattle prattle wrote:

leveraged etfs can distort returns as you describe but it doesn't always do that. You have to watch it and check it. They tend to do worse in volatile markets and do better in markets headed primarily in one direction.

I have held some long term leveraged ETFs for a few years at a time with mixed results, bailing when it was going askew.

It us easy enough to check. Compare a leveraged index ETF to one that is leveraged in the same index. Check various time frames. Decide for yourself.

Racket has advised before not to hold them long term, fwiw.

Good luck in your decision.

Thanks, Seattle. And I apologize for some of the language in my previous posts. I've been coming to this thread for years and post under different handles, but I appreciate this thread and its contributors.

I will let you guys know how my strategy works out. The one major potential problem I see is if Robinhood goes bankrupt while my money is with them. Yeah, sure, it's insured, but if the market happens to be making big moves at the time, it could be a problem as I imagine my money would be frozen in limbo for at least a little while while things got sorted out. Other question I have that I don't know the answer to, maybe you do, is what happens if say I have $20,000 of margin invested at the time Robinhood goes bankrupt? Anyone know that? It's an unlikely scenario. I'm just curious more than anything.

Lol the Bear Stearns reco that will live in infamy 🖕

Either Robinhood or SIPC, will probably sell the account to someone else

I say that if you are going to do it, use IBKR instead.

You need to look at WHO is extending you the loan. Often it is a separate legal entity. Also the specific type of relationship with RH (don’t know, don’t use them), and what exactly you will be purchasing.

Sorry if this is useless to you, I still haven’t read your scenario.

You are insured for the share holdings, and the margin debt remains your responsibility. The margin debt would always be subject to NY Fed margin requirements, or liquidation of securities you owned that were subject to a margin call. These regulations supersede the status of the custodian of your securities.

Maser wrote:

Lol the Bear Stearns reco that will live in infamy 🖕

I honestly don't get the Cramer hate/obsession some people have. He's just a talking head on a show that has literal bells, whistles, flashing lights, and goofy noises.

It'd be like hating your local circus clown

Not a problem.

The discussion we had forced me to go and do one of my periodic checks of leveraged ETFs I have held. One of them is going sideways as we described in our discussion, so that was good to catch. The other ones worked out well enough to offset the problematic one. Again, it takes close scrutiny and I could describe what to look for in greater detail but that doesn't seem to be where you are headed anyways. And as Agip alluded to, your definition of long term comes into play. For a limited holding period in which it heads in one direction, it can be very profitable, and I have instances where it has even exceeded yielded more than the prescribed target of leverage.

Your margin endeavor is not without some merit. You just need to understand that you are talking with a group here who don't feel comfortable with that line of thinking in general.

Options trading is another way to go about this. It's not for me, but some don't share my reservations, and would use that method to try to do what you are aiming for.

It's all good and I hope it works out for you.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

agip wrote:I suppose times like these are when you try to look a year or two down the road and ask yourself if, say, the 2025 version of yourself will be glad you sold some shares when stocks were down only 11% in that correction you no longer have any memory of.

Adjusted for the opposing point of view...

probably not a lot of bad buying days when the VIX is above 30 and the economy is not in recession.

Maybe not any such bad buying days at all, given a 2-3 year timespan, but that's a guess.

Options trading is safer.

Maybe I should look at his damn scenario this weekend.

Prof. Racket wrote:

Maser wrote:

Lol the Bear Stearns reco that will live in infamy 🖕

I honestly don't get the Cramer hate/obsession some people have. He's just a talking head on a show that has literal bells, whistles, flashing lights, and goofy noises.

It'd be like hating your local circus clown

Yep, I hate local circus clowns, too.

It’s an instinctive reaction. Whenever I see Cramer’s lips move, I want to smash my fist into them to make them stop. And I have never even followed his sycophantic bs.

Clowns, well I just run away from them🏃