Down goes the Dow

bin-Racket, you still saying that Omicron is not slowing the world economy?

WSJ:

Rising infection rates driven by the faster-spreading Omicron variant of Covid-19 led to a U.S. and global economic slowdown as the year got under way, surveys of purchasing managers said.

The pullback was particularly pronounced in the U.S., where both the services and manufacturing sectors reported slower growth, according to surveys by data firm IHS Markit conducted in the first weeks of January and released on Monday.

“Soaring virus cases have brought the U.S. economy to a near standstill at the start of the year,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

In the U.S., IHS Markit’s composite purchasing managers Index—which measures activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors—fell to 50.8 in January from 57 in December, to hit an 18-month low.

J. Hardy wrote:

carmine9 wrote:

Looks like another bloodbath today

Have you learned nothing? Relax.

🤑

agip wrote:

bin-Racket, you still saying that Omicron is not slowing the world economy?

WSJ:

Rising infection rates driven by the faster-spreading Omicron variant of Covid-19 led to a U.S. and global economic slowdown as the year got under way, surveys of purchasing managers said.

Omicron is rapidly flaming out - down 70-80% from the highs in many locales according to wastewater surveillance, which is an earlier indicator than case counts.

Like you said in an earlier post it might push some of the 2021Q4 growth to the next quarter but that's no big deal for stock prices.

I love how I get a different moniker every time lol.

I thought the bet was just the US? Anyways, I saw that article this morning and immediately hoped you'd be too distracted by the market volatility to notice it.

So yes, people are getting sick and calling out of work, but consumer demand is still strong. So it seems like it's causing some labor issues on the supply side but not the demand side. I was really only thinking of the demand side when I made whatever bet this even is (I still don't really know, I just said "yes" so idiot would back away from the ledge), but in retrospect the inevitability of the affects on the supply side should have been obvious.

Does anyone know this is

Fixed Interest Index Fund (Hedged to Aussie dollars)

And this please

provide investors with the performance of the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index

I was going to wait until Feb or March to make my 2021 6k Roth contribution, but started the transfer yesterday. Now that the market finished green, I'm not sure when to buy in. Should I just DCA like 1k every week or every other week? Or every month? Or do it Bogleheads style and buy it all at once and forget about it?

investing noob wrote:

I was going to wait until Feb or March to make my 2021 6k Roth contribution, but started the transfer yesterday. Now that the market finished green, I'm not sure when to buy in. Should I just DCA like 1k every week or every other week? Or every month? Or do it Bogleheads style and buy it all at once and forget about it?

I think you are going to have plenty of opportunities to buy in the red so I wouldn't worry about that.

When i have reservations about making a big move, that is telling you something and I would act accordingly. making more cautious moves or waiting to act until you feel more confident or resolved.

My guess is we are in for quite a period of volatility for a while.

Agree.

Buckle up gents, futures in the tank 💩

One of the many stories here is how quality has done so much better than tech. Look at those great, preserved returns for value/div strategies despite the correction.

1 year returns:

Schwab Dividend Strat SCHD +22

Vanguard Value Index VTV +21

Wisdom Tree Dividend DTD: +19.9

SP500 +16

USA: +12

Tech +12

Developed ex-USA +4

Emerging -7

I own a lot of quality/value/dividend plays - sure would be great to have tons of people analyzing stocks again. And glad to see that quality means something, even if just for a brief shining moment. From 3 years trailing performance and out growth is still doing far better than value. Value was a dog for a decade so there's either a lot of empty field to run in...or a giant wall to climb, depending on how you look at things.

Seems like a wild rumpus….

Prof. Racket wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I am not going to forget this day for quite a while, i am sure.

You probably will. We had like 15 days of this exact thing in 2018. Then several more in 2020 and even a few last year!

Honestly pretty easy call to make when VIX opens 25% up and almost hits 40. That kind of thing never ends up sticking

This year ( VIX is the cherry line )

Last year

What was it that Mark Twain said, or is this time different?

Btc ripping and roaring but tech in the dumpster.

I would not have predicted that.

Probably will come back together, one way or the other.

So I regret getting into a few higher P/E tech stocks about a year ago. Bought high, and should have sold much earlier before/during Feb 2021 tech sell-off and before this correction. What do people think now about stuff like Crypto Miners and etf (HIVE and GBTC), some solar stocks (SUNW and SPWR), and a few other tech stocks like ALPP, GILT, PLUG)?

Each is down so much that it's dilemma to sell at huge loss, wait and see if they recover in time, or what? I've learned the lesson not to gamble like this...not a huge position in any of these but bites out of portfolio stinks.

WhoKnows wrote:

So I regret getting into a few higher P/E tech stocks about a year ago. Bought high, and should have sold much earlier before/during Feb 2021 tech sell-off and before this correction. What do people think now about stuff like Crypto Miners and etf (HIVE and GBTC), some solar stocks (SUNW and SPWR), and a few other tech stocks like ALPP, GILT, PLUG)?

Each is down so much that it's dilemma to sell at huge loss, wait and see if they recover in time, or what? I've learned the lesson not to gamble like this...not a huge position in any of these but bites out of portfolio stinks.

ask yourself why you are trying to get rich quickly rather than get rich slowly, which is wiser, which your grandmother might recommend, and then go think on it for a long run.

Have been buying things like PM, Novartis, Roche, Vector, Shell, more BTI, and NSRGY

Definitely not a get-rich-quick scheme :)

Have been buying things like PM, Novartis, Roche, Vector, Shell, more BTI, and NSRGY

Definitely not a get-rich-quick scheme :)

WhoKnows wrote:

So I regret getting into a few higher P/E tech stocks about a year ago. Bought high, and should have sold much earlier before/during Feb 2021 tech sell-off and before this correction. What do people think now about stuff like Crypto Miners and etf (HIVE and GBTC), some solar stocks (SUNW and SPWR), and a few other tech stocks like ALPP, GILT, PLUG)?

Each is down so much that it's dilemma to sell at huge loss, wait and see if they recover in time, or what? I've learned the lesson not to gamble like this...not a huge position in any of these but bites out of portfolio stinks.

I doubt this is what you should own for the next ten days let alone next ten years. I think there will be more stories like yours, only worse over the next couple of years. Hopefully people will turn against those that created an atmosphere of unhinged speculation. It didn’t have to happen this way.

emerging markets flat on the day now.

weird how quiet the day has been, given a vix in the low to mid 30s. You'd think it would be much more whipsaw-y.

Question for Racket:

What do you think will stop the dropoff in stocks? The Fed announcing it will slow down its increase in rates? The spike in Omicron cases to drop off? A change of sentiment that the rate hikes won't be as big of a deal as those are making it out to be?

I'm no expert in finance/investing, etc. But I was the one who raised the question in late October-ish in this thread bout the "Shoeshine" indicators I was seeing. I work in healthcare (hospital) environment, so none of my coworkers have a true financial background. And tons of not particularly smart coworkers were bragging about their huge returns and thinking that their Warren f*cking Buffet. Folks who have never been burned by a stock market bubble, and have only been investing post 2009. Or as recently as 2019/2020. My unedecuated hunch is that the Fed will allow the stock market to drop around 25%, before stepping in to help out in some way. If the bubble truly pops, the economic devastation would be worse than 2008., and the Fed must know that. Just my suspicion/speculation- and again, I don't know sh*t.