Down goes the Dow

IIRC early last year he said that the big crash was only a few months away.

Given the huge rise last year, he was spectacularly wrong, no?

Maybe I’m confusing him with someone else.

That michael bury has been of note lately as making that call about a year ago.

Don't know much of the Gunther guy.

Hey, that port your drinking sounded good, so i am cracking open one of my fav. IPAs. Cheers!

Futures up, but wonder if they hold throughout the morning (?). Nothing would surprise me.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“Cryptocurrencies leave me increasingly feeling like the boy watching the naked emperor passing in procession. So many significant people and institutions are admiring his incredible coat, which is so technically complicated and superior that normal people simply can’t comprehend it and must take it on trust. I would not. In such situations I have learned to prefer avoidance to trust.”

Jeremy Grantham, Let the Wild Rumpus Begin

I asked how you concluded that crypto is an indicator of a massive bubble. This does not answer the question.

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“Cryptocurrencies leave me increasingly feeling like the boy watching the naked emperor passing in procession. So many significant people and institutions are admiring his incredible coat, which is so technically complicated and superior that normal people simply can’t comprehend it and must take it on trust. I would not. In such situations I have learned to prefer avoidance to trust.”

Jeremy Grantham, Let the Wild Rumpus Begin

I asked how you concluded that crypto is an indicator of a massive bubble. This does not answer the question.

Let me guess: evidence that the whole world has gone mad!

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“Cryptocurrencies leave me increasingly feeling like the boy watching the naked emperor passing in procession. So many significant people and institutions are admiring his incredible coat, which is so technically complicated and superior that normal people simply can’t comprehend it and must take it on trust. I would not. In such situations I have learned to prefer avoidance to trust.”

Jeremy Grantham, Let the Wild Rumpus Begin

I asked how you concluded that crypto is an indicator of a massive bubble. This does not answer the question.

How so?

Maser wrote:

Possibly not, I have been into the port—which explains why I am here at all!

But I am shocked to discover that apparently all the regulars are here as well. Cheers!

So, since he is so confidently absolutist, has Grantham made public his shorts?

Grantham made a $12.5 million investment in Quantamscape that was up $265 million at one point.

seattle prattle wrote:

wondering wrote:

I asked how you concluded that crypto is an indicator of a massive bubble. This does not answer the question.

Let me guess: evidence that the whole world has gone mad!

Pretty simple, people will believe almost anything in a bubble.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Let me guess: evidence that the whole world has gone mad!

Pretty simple, people will believe almost anything in a bubble.

Mass insanity, evidenced by this intgangible called crypto. I get it. Not saying I agree with it.

What i do get is that there are no shortage of suckers at the short end of the stick waxing philosophical about a bubble that has up to now made some very rich, a lot nicely profitable, and delivered in terms that have been both unprecedented and sustained much longer than most thought possible.

I am referring to both crypto and the bull market, since the perma-bears seem to want us to infer that the one is a leading indicator of the other.

What is it worth now? Does he still have it? What else does he have?

My only equity last year was tsla.

I will assume that your silence on the issue means that yes, in fact he was massively wrong.

Timing is everything. There is no such thing as being right at the wrong time—and the bigger your window, the less value hath your prediction.

Seattle funny thing about Port, all I have had up to this point has been a rich euro friend’s reserve, which I have always liked very much.

So I decided to go out and buy some here. I was totally honest with the guy, told him I knew nothing except what I liked. He sold me a product that was completely different than the product I know! Not objectionable by any means, but nothing like the tawny beauty I know.

The quest continues!

I should say the perma-bears excluding the norseman trader, who is looping back into a kind of 'we're so f'd, we might as well except a fantasy currency for our one-and-only,'

IPA, hmmm...

I find that 2-4 good fresh-brewed stouts once a week improves my running performance.

No kidding!

Yep futures up, but only slightly. Not enough to get excited about imo

Of course there is a bubble in the whole "digital asset" space. Taking things that already exist and are practically infinite and creating an idea of "owning" them for a price is a scam as old as history itself. It's like timeshare salesmen saying you can "own a vacation." I have a Brittney Spears limited edition Beanie Baby back in my closet at my parents' house lol.

jamin wrote:

Of course there is a bubble in the whole "digital asset" space. Taking things that already exist and are practically infinite and creating an idea of "owning" them for a price is a scam as old as history itself. It's like timeshare salesmen saying you can "own a vacation." I have a Brittney Spears limited edition Beanie Baby back in my closet at my parents' house lol.

I take it you mean like NFTs. I don't understand it much beyond a kind of referential level.

As I said before, most of that stuff to me is just a distraction, You're probably right, and I have little desire to find out about it since the markets have provided more than enough returns sufficient for this guy.

Maser wrote:

IPA, hmmm...

I find that 2-4 good fresh-brewed stouts once a week improves my running performance.

No kidding!

I've found, too, that post-race they are excellent for recovery with all the carbs and hydrating, Nothing better.

Stouts, though, love the taste up front, but they get to be a bit of overkill half way through the first pint. Also, the calories - not sure if that is true but they just feel like they will show up in excess running weight fairly quickly.

Still fairly early here in the PNW so I am back to caffeine, at least for one more cup.

seattle prattle wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

Nothing works for retail except for blind luck. That's why they're retail traders instead of hedge fund managers

Algorithmic and HF trading based on momentum can work if done correctly. Large swings in momentum and volatility can introduce certain deterministic outcomes and if you move quickly enough you can exploit that before the wondow closes

A retail investor has distinct advantages over fund managers and one is to be able to trade on momentum much more effectively. A retail investor can make numerous momentum trades all day long, with as much or as little of their holdings as they wish, though if a fund were to do so, the sheer size of their holdings would influence the stock direction and thereby undercut the very thing they were attempting to do.

Dr. Racket is talking about high-frequency traders that trade many times a second eat up all the short term momentum buying opportunities. There's no edge for a retail trader to gain.

Hardloper wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

A retail investor has distinct advantages over fund managers and one is to be able to trade on momentum much more effectively. A retail investor can make numerous momentum trades all day long, with as much or as little of their holdings as they wish, though if a fund were to do so, the sheer size of their holdings would influence the stock direction and thereby undercut the very thing they were attempting to do.

Dr. Racket is talking about high-frequency traders that trade many times a second eat up all the short term momentum buying opportunities. There's no edge for a retail trader to gain.

I know what he is talking about but 'momentum trading' is a fairly well understood type of trading separate from the algorithm type of trading he is talking about.

I am talking about momentum trading in the traditional sense, which has been around for many years, and individual investors use all the time.

It's covered in Wikipedia.

MOMO traders. Not quite day trading, usually hold positions a bit longer, commonly for a few days.