Down goes the Dow

doc idiot wrote:The US is going to get hammered for sure.

By this, again I am referring to reported covid fatalities in the coming wave, not the associated effects in financial markets. To mas' objection, I will claim without proof to have knowledge and authority to speak on this topic (at least relative to the average LRC poster). In fact, I feel like I've been giving away valuable information to you all for free, or at least the information was produced at a cost, which was not passed on to you. I've found that when you give something away for free, people tend to devalue it. In my work we've done numerous pro-bono assignments in developing nations, and every time we try to give away free advice, it is received with suspicion and treated as though it has little value. Meanwhile, major multi-national firms pay very good money for similar advice (none of which relates to covid; I'm talking about the day job now).

Anyway, I DON'T claim to have knowledge or authority to speak about what this hammering (coming wave of fatalities) will mean for the markets. In that question, I remain an idiot. I've suggested the markets will take a hit, but I suspect racket is more likely correct, at least for US markets. I don't think the average American gives much thought to the likelihood of their neighbours, especially older ones, or hypothetical people elsewhere in the US, dying, so long as it doesn't affect them personally. So maybe (probably?) this coming covid hammering will have no direct impact on the markets. That said, the current inflation, which is surely a byproduct of the first covid wave, and its likely effects on QE and interest rates, seem sure to affect the markets.

agip wrote:Would be amusing to get our first short squeeze of an ETF.

Short squeeze of a short ETF? That would be brilliant! So many different flavors of irony. Somebody alert those crazy kids holding GME!

CPI 7%

Priced in

Prof. Racket wrote:

CPI 7%

Priced in

ja, interest rates falling pretty solidly...suggests the market is seeing past these big headline numbers.

OR

the market is saying that COVID is putting a halt to big consumer spending, relieving pressure on the demand side and allowing prices to stop rising.

or maybe those aren't different.

agip wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

CPI 7%

Priced in

ja, interest rates falling pretty solidly...suggests the market is seeing past these big headline numbers.

OR

the market is saying that COVID is putting a halt to big consumer spending, relieving pressure on the demand side and allowing prices to stop rising.

or maybe those aren't different.

Or maybe they remembered that GDP is gonna be up like 7% for 2021.

I really don't know why all these plebs are crying over inflation like it's a bad thing. We haven't had inflation in the US in like 20 years and in case anyone forgot how it works, you kinda have to keep going up or else you're completely fvcked.

I mean how do you think that huge US debt is gonna get paid off anyways? By out-inflating it

agip wrote:

an article on ARKK and SARK.

It suggests short interest in ARKK is at a high, which might make owning it quite risky. When all those shorts have to buy back in, they'll try to do it at once, which could jam up the NAV of the fund.

Would be amusing to get our first short squeeze of an ETF.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-ark-sees-near-182850494.html

If an ETF would get short squeezed, ARKK would be it. All the dumb apes who don't understand valuation flock to Cathie Wood.

investing noob wrote:

agip wrote:

an article on ARKK and SARK.

It suggests short interest in ARKK is at a high, which might make owning it quite risky. When all those shorts have to buy back in, they'll try to do it at once, which could jam up the NAV of the fund.

Would be amusing to get our first short squeeze of an ETF.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-ark-sees-near-182850494.html

If an ETF would get short squeezed, ARKK would be it. All the dumb apes who don't understand valuation flock to Cathie Wood.

This would be almost impossible since you can just redeem the ETF by buying the individual components instead

investing noob wrote: All the dumb apes who don't understand valuation flock to Cathie Wood.

More irony.

I can never really tell whether you are playing a character in this discussion, or playing yourself...?

Prof. Racket wrote:

investing noob wrote:

If an ETF would get short squeezed, ARKK would be it. All the dumb apes who don't understand valuation flock to Cathie Wood.

This would be almost impossible since you can just redeem the ETF by buying the individual components instead

ETFs do get knocked off their 'peg' pretty often.

the market is not completely efficient.

but usually the divergence between NAV and price is only a few percent at most.

But shorting is weird and causes distortions that feed on themselves.

racketoff:

Here's what I'm seeing in my big blue city - things are slowing down. people are doing less. Kids, parents, everyone. Which translates to less economic activity.

But on the other hand, NYC covid data has nosed over and is starting to plunge like it did in the UK, so this should be short lived.

WSJ:

Many students in kindergarten through 12th grade are out sick because of Covid-19 or are being kept home by anxious parents, as the Omicron variant surges, officials say. Remote learning often isn’t being offered anymore for students who are home. Empty desks create a quandary for teachers, who must decide whether to push ahead with lesson plans knowing a large number of their students will need to catch up.

New York City, the nation’s largest school district, saw its overall attendance rate fall below 70% when classes resumed after the winter holidays, far beneath the district’s pre-pandemic average of over 91% students at school each day. Many students missed class because of fears of contracting the virus or because they or a family member had tested positive, teachers said.

“There’s never been anything like this,” said Arthur Goldstein, a teacher at Francis Lewis High School in Queens, N.Y., referring to the sustained low attendance

trendlet alert:

Emerging markets outperforming the US over the last month.

Very few people expect outperformance from emerging markets...a true contrarian might be interested here. but a true contrarian would have been interested a year ago, and two years ago, etc. And been crushed.

But if things do improve in EM land, the stocks could run for a long time with money flooding back in, after years of selling.

1 month:

Emerging: +1.46%

Emerging ex-China: +3.3%

USA: -0.3%

agip wrote:

racketoff:

Here's what I'm seeing in my big blue city - things are slowing down. people are doing less. Kids, parents, everyone. Which translates to less economic activity.

But on the other hand, NYC covid data has nosed over and is starting to plunge like it did in the UK, so this should be short lived.

I mean, like I said earlier - it's kinda sorta the dead of winter and right after the holiday spending spree. Things always slow down around now

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

investing noob wrote: All the dumb apes who don't understand valuation flock to Cathie Wood.

More irony.

I can never really tell whether you are playing a character in this discussion, or playing yourself...?

Hmm? I only have SARK, VTI and APPL.

Totally on an informal observational basis, granted, it seems that January often starts off fairly positive for equities most years, but a divergence happens around the 3rd week, in which more often than not, it either loses momentum or actually turns negative. And there's a kind of myth on the street along the lines of 'As goes January, so goes the year.'

Looking it up, there actually is a term for it: "January barometer" and it is discussed here:

This year, I get the feeling it may be flipped, at least i hope so" the first week was down, but may very well be positive the rest of the month, possibly even going positive for the month over all. And of course, we know the reason behind it was the releasing of the Fed Minutes from their last meeting where it was indicated they are planning a more hawkish cessation of bond buying this year in advance of three rate hikes (in all likelihood), which was a bit more aggressive than previous remarks led investors to believe.

Just something to consider, i suppose....

Today I learned about Neom, a planned 'city' on the Saudi peninsula, meant to operate independently from Saudi Arabia.

It's the size of Massachusetts.

SA has dedicated half a trillion dollars to developing it as a tourist and technology hub.

Its highlight is a planned 100 mile long linear city along a river, with mass trans and no cars.

Not clear to me if it is actually under construction.

I guess this is one answer to the question 'what will Saudi do when oil is gone or not in demand anymore.'

I'm impressed...could be a new way of life and an exit plan if your democracy goes belly-up.

Wish it weren't so hot though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neom

investing noob wrote:

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

More irony.

I can never really tell whether you are playing a character in this discussion, or playing yourself...?

Hmm? I only have SARK, VTI and APPL.

I just don't understand the ARK, or the shorting thereof. I never did.

Two reasons: I don't understand the bulk of the companies she holds in her fund, and I see little or no reason to seek outsized gains that her funds epitomizes when the markets have yielded such satisfactory returns without having to delve into the more speculative fringes.

Sure, I may seek out outperformance via leveraged ETFs, but it seeks that outperformance via companies I understand, and frankly, dare I say, less risky.

I've avoided SARK for the same reason: lack of insight into the holdings.

seattle prattle wrote:

investing noob wrote:

Hmm? I only have SARK, VTI and APPL.

I just don't understand the ARK, or the shorting thereof. I never did.

Two reasons: I don't understand the bulk of the companies she holds in her fund

First of all:

OK BOOMER.

But really, it's just speculation on some tech companies. She's trying to do what everyone else wants to do - buy the next Microsoft/Apple/Facebook/whatever before it takes off.

Prof. Racket wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I just don't understand the ARK, or the shorting thereof. I never did.

Two reasons: I don't understand the bulk of the companies she holds in her fund

First of all:

OK BOOMER.

But really, it's just speculation on some tech companies. She's trying to do what everyone else wants to do - buy the next Microsoft/Apple/Facebook/whatever before it takes off.

Hang in there, junior, you almost got my point,

Microsoft/Apple/Facebook are reinventing themselves all the time. They are, wait for it....., the next 'Microsoft/Apple/Facebook.' Why play the crapshoot of guessing which of the one-in-five techo's is going to actually make it and survive, and deliver outsized returns? They have been outpacing the market fairly solidly, And if you want to juice that a bit, look closely and you may see a reference to leverage ETFs, (i.e: technology).

agip wrote:

Today I learned about Neom, a planned 'city' on the Saudi peninsula, meant to operate independently from Saudi Arabia.

It's the size of Massachusetts.

SA has dedicated half a trillion dollars to developing it as a tourist and technology hub.

Its highlight is a planned 100 mile long linear city along a river, with mass trans and no cars.

Not clear to me if it is actually under construction.

I guess this is one answer to the question 'what will Saudi do when oil is gone or not in demand anymore.'

I'm impressed...could be a new way of life and an exit plan if your democracy goes belly-up.

Wish it weren't so hot though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neom

Money laundering scam. Royal family is trying to offshore as much money as they can before the whole OPEC jig is up