agip wrote:
tech up 3.2% from its low to high today.
that'll impress some of these AI program traders and bring in some buyers.
VIX peaked just over 23 today. I guess that was enough to swing things back
agip wrote:
tech up 3.2% from its low to high today.
that'll impress some of these AI program traders and bring in some buyers.
VIX peaked just over 23 today. I guess that was enough to swing things back
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
agip wrote:it's all very fuzzy and changing and "if...then" but this has to be considered as a factor. Shouldn't be discounted is irrelevant.
Well, OK, to be clear what I'm talking about is daily reported COVID fatalities, as reported by any one of the reputable data tracking organizations: Johns Hopkins, Oxford, CDC, pick your poison. The 7-day average daily fatalities over the next few weeks will be higher than at any time prior, is the wager (and my belief / expectation is MUCH higher). Died with, died of.... I leave the cause of death with the reporting physicians and the accounting with these agencies. If somebody - maybe somebody who ate crayons and glue at the yellow table in kindergarten - wants to suggest they're all in on a conspiracy, have at it, but you'll get no traction with me and it won't affect the target of the wager.
I'm not sure why you're arguing with me, agip, you're supposed to be on Team Idiot! :-)
I'll leave it at that now and drop the COVID talk to avoid further diluting discussion of the DOW going down...
To be clear, you're betting the 7-day average daily covid deaths will surpass the previous all-time high of ~3500? I would definitely take the under. (I think most models back this up too but they're all over the place right now.)
Hardloper wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Well, OK, to be clear what I'm talking about is daily reported COVID fatalities, as reported by any one of the reputable data tracking organizations: Johns Hopkins, Oxford, CDC, pick your poison. The 7-day average daily fatalities over the next few weeks will be higher than at any time prior, is the wager (and my belief / expectation is MUCH higher). Died with, died of.... I leave the cause of death with the reporting physicians and the accounting with these agencies. If somebody - maybe somebody who ate crayons and glue at the yellow table in kindergarten - wants to suggest they're all in on a conspiracy, have at it, but you'll get no traction with me and it won't affect the target of the wager.
I'm not sure why you're arguing with me, agip, you're supposed to be on Team Idiot! :-)
I'll leave it at that now and drop the COVID talk to avoid further diluting discussion of the DOW going down...
To be clear, you're betting the 7-day average daily covid deaths will surpass the previous all-time high of ~3500? I would definitely take the under. (I think most models back this up too but they're all over the place right now.)
The wild card is Florida. They will have among the most deaths but their reporting system will hide them until weeks or months later.
FL reports the date of death, not when the paperwork is approved. So for weeks and weeks deaths get added on to the ‘old’ death counts.
It’s not a wrong way to count, but it is unusual and it always makes FL look much safer ‘today’ than it actually is. If you look today, it appears only 1-5 people die per day. But that will climb over time until the Jan 10 total is in the hundreds.
Prof. Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
tech up 3.2% from its low to high today.
that'll impress some of these AI program traders and bring in some buyers.
VIX peaked just over 23 today. I guess that was enough to swing things back
I get the sense that these last few sessions, the shorts are piling on all morning, driving the price down, and the fact that it usually claws back some or all of the losses by the close is due to the short sellers closing out their positions so as to not hold them overnight, which short sellers customarily will avoid.
The path of least resistance at this point, given the Fed minutes revelations about easing the bond buying program, is down, and when the shorts size up in pre-market trading that the buyers aren't moving back in yet, the shorting begins....
Of course, there may be other explanations, but that's how this feels over the last week and today.
Prof. Racket wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Team Idiot for me. At least in terms of hospitalizations, if not deaths.
What a day, sold a ton all morning, bought a ton of it back on the rebound, Might get around to see if it was a net deficit or add for the day, but there's a lot to be totaled.
I cannot f'g believe balance wise I am flat on the day, after the downturn this morning.
I'll remember this betrayal seattle.
Hey, hey, hey!
We're all friends here.
Stocks only go up, we actually know what we're talking about, and we're all friends always, almost.
Hardloper wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Well, OK, to be clear what I'm talking about is daily reported COVID fatalities, as reported by any one of the reputable data tracking organizations: Johns Hopkins, Oxford, CDC, pick your poison. The 7-day average daily fatalities over the next few weeks will be higher than at any time prior, is the wager (and my belief / expectation is MUCH higher). Died with, died of.... I leave the cause of death with the reporting physicians and the accounting with these agencies. If somebody - maybe somebody who ate crayons and glue at the yellow table in kindergarten - wants to suggest they're all in on a conspiracy, have at it, but you'll get no traction with me and it won't affect the target of the wager.
I'm not sure why you're arguing with me, agip, you're supposed to be on Team Idiot! :-)
I'll leave it at that now and drop the COVID talk to avoid further diluting discussion of the DOW going down...
To be clear, you're betting the 7-day average daily covid deaths will surpass the previous all-time high of ~3500? I would definitely take the under. (I think most models back this up too but they're all over the place right now.)
Let me know when you find out. The bet is against me and I have no idea what exactly I agreed but I'm not backing down now!
agip wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
To be clear, you're betting the 7-day average daily covid deaths will surpass the previous all-time high of ~3500? I would definitely take the under. (I think most models back this up too but they're all over the place right now.)
The wild card is Florida. They will have among the most deaths but their reporting system will hide them until weeks or months later.
FL reports the date of death, not when the paperwork is approved. So for weeks and weeks deaths get added on to the ‘old’ death counts.
It’s not a wrong way to count, but it is unusual and it always makes FL look much safer ‘today’ than it actually is. If you look today, it appears only 1-5 people die per day. But that will climb over time until the Jan 10 total is in the hundreds.
Johns Hopkins seems to report it the standard way, unlike Worldometer, with the only difference being Florida reports 3x a week instead of daily.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/floridaIt would appear that maybe, just maybe, the New Years rally has arrived? Finally?
seattle prattle wrote:It would appear that maybe, just maybe, the New Years rally has arrived? Finally?
Maybe I shoulda bought bitcoin over the last few days... :-)
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:It would appear that maybe, just maybe, the New Years rally has arrived? Finally?
Maybe I shoulda bought bitcoin over the last few days... :-)
I woulda, but I gather that it's been frowned upon in this establishment...:-)
seattle prattle wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Maybe I shoulda bought bitcoin over the last few days... :-)
I woulda, but I gather that it's been frowned upon in this establishment...:-)
Your bitcoin purchase could go south to nothing like in no time at all. Your purchase of a market equity index fund will deliver 11 to 13% over the long haul. No choice which one I would take.
Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I woulda, but I gather that it's been frowned upon in this establishment...:-)
Your bitcoin purchase could go south to nothing like in no time at all. Your purchase of a market equity index fund will deliver 11 to 13% over the long haul. No choice which one I would take.
Geez, Sally, I wouldn't actually do it. Well, not anymore than the token amount I already have. We just talk about doing it to rile up the regulars.
But on the other hand, you know - diversity?
Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I woulda, but I gather that it's been frowned upon in this establishment...:-)
Your bitcoin purchase could go south to nothing like in no time at all. Your purchase of a market equity index fund will deliver 11 to 13% over the long haul. No choice which one I would take.
It can go south, but not to nothing. Too many institutions, politicians and entire countries like El Salvador own it now.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/VIF22/technical-chart?plot=LINE&volume=contract&data=I:5&density=O&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&im=5&startDate=2022-01-03&endDate=2022-01-11&daterange=specific&sym=VIF22&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100&overlay1=VIG22&axis1=false&overlay2=VIH22&axis2=false&overlay3=$VIX&axis3=false&isComparison=1Prof. Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
tech up 3.2% from its low to high today.
that'll impress some of these AI program traders and bring in some buyers.
VIX peaked just over 23 today. I guess that was enough to swing things back
Can't get no backwardation
It tries, and it tries, and it tries, and it tries
Maybe come back tomorrow or next week
Can't you see it's on a losing streak?
CPI print for December tomorrow.
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
agip wrote:it's all very fuzzy and changing and "if...then" but this has to be considered as a factor. Shouldn't be discounted is irrelevant.
Well, OK, to be clear what I'm talking about is daily reported COVID fatalities, as reported by any one of the reputable data tracking organizations: Johns Hopkins, Oxford, CDC, pick your poison. The 7-day average daily fatalities over the next few weeks will be higher than at any time prior, is the wager (and my belief / expectation is MUCH higher). Died with, died of.... I leave the cause of death with the reporting physicians and the accounting with these agencies. If somebody - maybe somebody who ate crayons and glue at the yellow table in kindergarten - wants to suggest they're all in on a conspiracy, have at it, but you'll get no traction with me and it won't affect the target of the wager.
I'm not sure why you're arguing with me, agip, you're supposed to be on Team Idiot! :-)
I'll leave it at that now and drop the COVID talk to avoid further diluting discussion of the DOW going down...
Idiot, you might want to follow Hale Stewart at the Bonddad Blog.
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2022/01/coronavirus-dashboard-for-january-10.htmlI may exit SARK tomorrow. ARKK looks like it will keep pumping in the near term. Thoughts?
la gente esta muy loca wrote:]Idiot, you might want to follow Hale Stewart at the Bonddad Blog.
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2022/01/coronavirus-dashboard-for-january-10.html
Thanks, LGEML, I had not seen that one. I write an analysis similar to that, but not for public consumption, at intervals varying according to the current rate of change (lately a couple of times a week). I’ve been doing that for nearly two years. The US is going to get hammered for sure.
investing noob wrote:I may exit SARK tomorrow. ARKK looks like it will keep pumping in the near term. Thoughts?
Let me consult my 12-sided dice and get back to you…
This is interesting - this centuy there has been a negative return if you add together all the Januaries. 2000-2021.
I think the same thing is true for Septembers, historically.
So maybe we just need to sit tight through January and hope for better next month.
WSJ
If you were to buy large-cap equities at the start of January over the past 20 years, your average return at the end of the month was a negative 0.53%. And compared with average returns for the other months of the year during this period, the return on equities for January lagged behind by an average of 1.39 percentage points. For all classes of equity, January on average has become a losing month. And this January looks to be starting on the same path; as of Friday, the S&P 500 is down 1.9% to start the year.
The one holdout is fixed income. Bond-fund investments during January over the past 20 years averaged a one-month return of 0.53%. If you held for the rest of the year (February through December) you would have averaged a monthly return of 0.33%. This amounts to a difference of 0.20 percentage point.
doc idiot wrote:
investing noob wrote:I may exit SARK tomorrow. ARKK looks like it will keep pumping in the near term. Thoughts?
Let me consult my 12-sided dice and get back to you…
I got the reference
I never played but I still feel nostalgia for it. Pop culture is weird that way.
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