Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

While the current inflation rate (as of Nov.) is 6.8% and steadily climbing ...

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave

2021 1.4 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.8

agreed inflation is an issue.

I'd expect that as we start lapping the plague quarters, inflation tames down.

Although with this labor shortage inflation won't go too low.

Just looking around the world and what interest rates are...money is going to absolutely flood the US treasury if people think they can get 2% in the US vs so much less anywhere else. That shoudl support bonds denominated in dollars.

A rate raise or two combined with things like student loans coming active again and loss of child tax credit will be pretty deflationary. A lot of employee reviews are coming up over the next month or two and I think a lot depends on if wages actually come up.

doc idiot wrote:

Those who have never (or rarely) left the continental US and spent time in eastern Europe should probably not bother expressing their views on political issues other than US “democracy.”

A problem with this technique, apart from the fact that it does not at all inform the substance of the debate, is that there is always a greater authority who could equally well invalidate your own position.

I could easily say that nobody who doesn’t have family there, who isn’t a citizen there, and who doesn’t know people in business and politics over there, should bother to express their views on politics over there.

And so on. I learned this in the world of money—there is ALWAYS a bigger fish.

And, of course, US foreign policy looms large in many places, including former soviet bloc countries.

Not gonna lie, I wish I had thought of that rebuttal first. Well done

agip wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

While the current inflation rate (as of Nov.) is 6.8% and steadily climbing ...

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave

2021 1.4 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.8

agreed inflation is an issue.

I'd expect that as we start lapping the plague quarters, inflation tames down.

Although with this labor shortage inflation won't go too low.

Just looking around the world and what interest rates are...money is going to absolutely flood the US treasury if people think they can get 2% in the US vs so much less anywhere else. That shoudl support bonds denominated in dollars.

This is what I have been saying for years regarding US stocks: where else are people going to put their money? That applies to sovereigns and banks equally. At some point, UST’s become a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

agreed inflation is an issue.

I'd expect that as we start lapping the plague quarters, inflation tames down.

Although with this labor shortage inflation won't go too low.

Just looking around the world and what interest rates are...money is going to absolutely flood the US treasury if people think they can get 2% in the US vs so much less anywhere else. That shoudl support bonds denominated in dollars.

A rate raise or two combined with things like student loans coming active again and loss of child tax credit will be pretty deflationary. A lot of employee reviews are coming up over the next month or two and I think a lot depends on if wages actually come up.

also, the demand will probably weaken just from age. Which should hold down price jumps.

government handouts are running dry, gas prices are sucking up more consumer dollars, and people will be staying home, hiding from COVID.

agip wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

A rate raise or two combined with things like student loans coming active again and loss of child tax credit will be pretty deflationary. A lot of employee reviews are coming up over the next month or two and I think a lot depends on if wages actually come up.

also, the demand will probably weaken just from age. Which should hold down price jumps.

government handouts are running dry, gas prices are sucking up more consumer dollars, and people will be staying home, hiding from COVID.

ehhhhhhh agree to disagree I guess. We're still in a pretty strong "get outside and live" paradigm and Spring/Summer is only a few months away, which I think will bolster consumer spending.

I may live to regret writing this, but I bottom ticked my bond buy.

I literally got the 52 week low for ticker BND and it has risen since. And I waited months to get it.

I mean in bondland the percent moves are smaller than equityland, but I'll still take this to my grave if it holds.

That was a very large buy, in terms of my net worth. Biggest buy in one trade I've ever done.

Things pretty rocky today. Wonder if this small rebound will have any legs. Some things are coming into my buying range, which makes me nervous.

Look at the heat map, it is across the board:

https://finviz.com/map.ashx

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

also, the demand will probably weaken just from age. Which should hold down price jumps.

government handouts are running dry, gas prices are sucking up more consumer dollars, and people will be staying home, hiding from COVID.

ehhhhhhh agree to disagree I guess. We're still in a pretty strong "get outside and live" paradigm and Spring/Summer is only a few months away, which I think will bolster consumer spending.

in my big blue city there are markedly fewer people out and about.

we're the first wave...it's fanning out over the rest of the country as we speak.

hospitalizations and deaths are really moving up here, and cases are literally off the charts. In the past it's been hard to know someone with COVID. Now it's a constant stream of 'I've got COVID' stories.

And this is a relatively highly vaxxed city. Imagine a place with 42% vax rates. It's going to be actual American carnage.

Maser wrote:I could easily say that nobody who doesn’t have family there, who isn’t a citizen there, and who doesn’t know people in business and politics over there, should bother to express their views on politics over there.

Yep, on that spectrum, moving left to right, one would be more likely than average to have a useful, informed opinion. And all the way on the hard left end of the "informed spectrum" (LRC idiot TM pending) are those LRC posters who have never left the country, let alone ventured to eastern Europe nor meaningfully engaged with folks there.

Obviously anyone on here can blather on about whatever they like. We all do, all the time. I wasn't commanding anyone to stop blurting their opinions, just reflecting, if perhaps sharply, about the general level of ignorance in the discussion.

agip wrote:

I may live to regret writing this, but I bottom ticked my bond buy.

I literally got the 52 week low for ticker BND and it has risen since. And I waited months to get it.

I mean in bondland the percent moves are smaller than equityland, but I'll still take this to my grave if it holds.

That was a very large buy, in terms of my net worth. Biggest buy in one trade I've ever done.

There is an argument that sovereign bonds are the place to be in a deflationary environment. May I ask, what % did you put in?

Maser wrote:

Things pretty rocky today. Wonder if this small rebound will have any legs. Some things are coming into my buying range, which makes me nervous.

Look at the heat map, it is across the board:

https://finviz.com/map.ashx

SCHD Dividend strategy: -0.6%

VGT Tech -2.1%

VCR Consumer discretionary: -2.6%

The high multiple stuff is getting creamed.

Probably getting closer to the time to buy tech again. If it gets down to -14% off its highs I might start ditching the dividend stuff and buying tech.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Maser wrote:I could easily say that nobody who doesn’t have family there, who isn’t a citizen there, and who doesn’t know people in business and politics over there, should bother to express their views on politics over there.

Yep, on that spectrum, moving left to right, one would be more likely than average to have a useful, informed opinion. And all the way on the hard left end of the "informed spectrum" (LRC idiot TM pending) are those LRC posters who have never left the country, let alone ventured to eastern Europe nor meaningfully engaged with folks there.

Obviously anyone on here can blather on about whatever they like. We all do, all the time. I wasn't commanding anyone to stop blurting their opinions, just reflecting, if perhaps sharply, about the general level of ignorance in the discussion.

Lol you can always tell that I know something when I am silent on the topic😂

Down 9% since my peak in Novemeber '21

:(

agip wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

ehhhhhhh agree to disagree I guess. We're still in a pretty strong "get outside and live" paradigm and Spring/Summer is only a few months away, which I think will bolster consumer spending.

in my big blue city there are markedly fewer people out and about.

we're the first wave...it's fanning out over the rest of the country as we speak.

hospitalizations and deaths are really moving up here, and cases are literally off the charts. In the past it's been hard to know someone with COVID. Now it's a constant stream of 'I've got COVID' stories.

And this is a relatively highly vaxxed city. Imagine a place with 42% vax rates. It's going to be actual American carnage.

Yeah I mean it's the dead of winter so... makes sense not many people are out and about.

Ask yourself if anyone really cares right now. A few people definitely do, but most Americans don't, at least not enough to significantly change their day-to-day routine. And it sure as hell isn't gonna stop people from spending money.

You're dreaming if you think consumer spending is going down. There will be no more lockdowns, and the deaths are just gonna be what they are.

agip wrote:... It's going to be actual American carnage.

OK, agip is on Team Idiot.

Anyone else want to declare for Team Idiot or Team Racket?

I feel like I've got the inside track on this one. COVID, eastern Europe and volcanoes may be three among less than a handful of topics in the universe I think I likely have a better handle on than any of the other regulars in this thread...

Carnage needs to be defined.

In my big blue city many people already have it, myself possibly included—felt like crud on the weekend, but never had any diminution in sense of smell. Feeling 90% today, tomorrow will be back to normal. Then again, this happens to me every year when it gets cold and dry (-10F this morning).

Those who stay in town for the winter are stoic about it, my sense is that the economy is grinding on same as it has been.

Basically, everyone in this highly-vaxxed town gets a cold for a couple of days. That is normal here for the winter season.

Maser wrote:Carnage needs to be defined.

I defined the target earlier. I think over the next few weeks fatalities across the US (national daily totals) will be higher than at any earlier time in the pandemic. Racket dismissed the suggestion. More specifically, I expect the 7-day average of daily new fatalities will get higher than 3400. In fact I think it will get a lot higher, but that's the rough threshold (actually more like 3340ish, but rounded up).

So if you feel like choosing sides, Team Racket is < 3400, Team Idiot > 3400 fatalities per day, 7-day average, over the next few weeks.

Maser wrote:

Carnage needs to be defined.

In my big blue city many people already have it, myself possibly included—felt like crud on the weekend, but never had any diminution in sense of smell. Feeling 90% today, tomorrow will be back to normal. Then again, this happens to me every year when it gets cold and dry (-10F this morning).

Those who stay in town for the winter are stoic about it, my sense is that the economy is grinding on same as it has been.

Basically, everyone in this highly-vaxxed town gets a cold for a couple of days. That is normal here for the winter season.

the issue is what Omicron does to the unvaxxed, overweight, unhealthy middle of America. It's not clear yet, but probably tens of thousands of additional deaths. In vaxxed cities it's bad enough but in unvaxxed places? it's going to be bad.

I suppose the 'good' news for the economy is that the places where that carnage will likely happen are Trumpian places so the people won't change their spending behavior much as their neighbors struggle for breath. Which might be to Racket's point.