Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

Hint 1: If you don’t want to face criticism for your parenting, don’t criticize someone else’s parenting.

Hint 2: If you don’t want to be known as a hypocrite, then don’t complain about someone using multiple handles when you do the same.

Hint 1: do your thing, it has gone on for seven years, why stop now

Hint 2: or see a psychiatrist about obsession

Hint 3: doesn’t matter to me what you do

You are so predictable. You say something stupid and when you get called out for it, you attack the messenger.

(Wait for it….)

Should have gone all in SARK the day it came out. Premarket looks beautiful. All the Cathie Wood followers annoyed me so much last year.

I'm glad an analyst gave PLTR a $5 fair value. Everyone I know who bought PLTR and said it was going to $100 can't even tell me what they do besides "data analytics" whatever that means. As if MSFT, GOOGL and AAPL don't do analytics?

I hope TSLA goes below $500 where it belongs. Tired of idiots saying it'll go to 2k or 2.5k this year because "it's the future", "it's more then a car company" and "it's investing in Elon". I should have bought puts the day it went up by twice Ford's market cap. TSLA is the only thing holding ARKK up, once it comes back to earth then SARK will be $45-50 soon!

doc idiot wrote:

There’s a whole lot of dis/misinformation about world affairs in this thread. Those who have never (or rarely) left the continental US and spent time in eastern Europe should probably not bother expressing their views on political issues other than US “democracy.”

This is the most European thing I've read lmao.

Those who have never stood at the rim of a volcano should probably not have opinions on whether or not it's hot on the inside.

doc idiot wrote:

Getting back to the topic at hand, if I might.

The US is about to get hammered by omicron. Hospitalization and fatalities are now starting to rise. My forecast is that, beginning in the next couple of weeks, give or take, the US nation-wide will be feeling the worst effects of the pandemic so far, and it will happen quickly, everywhere. My thinking is that this will produce a sharp correction and more market turmoil.

You heard it here first. Buyer beware. Don’t come back later and say you weren’t warned…

Of course, I am an idiot, and therefore most likely wrong. Or maybe not, you decide.

No one in the world is getting "hammered" by this, especially not the US.

It was a panic two years ago because no one had enough supplies or protocols to deal with a pandemic of this scale, but at this point we've built up enough to last us through like 4 pandemics.

The only thing rising faster than new COVID cases is new cases of no one giving a fvck

investing noob wrote:

I hope TSLA goes below $500 where it belongs.

People have been dumping pure hatred into this company for like 10 years, including myself. It isn't tied to reality and I've accepted that. It belongs everywhere and simultaneously, nowhere; a penny stock, and yet, a $1T+ company

Prof. Racket wrote:Those who have never stood at the rim of a volcano should probably not have opinions on whether or not it's hot on the inside.

A bit of an oversimplification there. Is that the best counter-example you've got?

I have stood at or near the rim of many volcanoes, btw. You may be surprised to learn that many (most) of them are not hot near the rim.

Prof. Racket wrote:No one in the world is getting "hammered" by this, especially not the US.

Watch and see. I suppose to test our different forecasts here we need to define "hammered." For me it means that daily COVID / OMICRON deaths in the US during this wave will be higher than at any prior point since early 2020. If you think that's wrong, then we have a bet.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:Those who have never stood at the rim of a volcano should probably not have opinions on whether or not it's hot on the inside.

A bit of an oversimplification there.

For you.

Prof. Racket wrote:

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

A bit of an oversimplification there.

For you.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:No one in the world is getting "hammered" by this, especially not the US.

Watch and see. I suppose to test our different forecasts here we need to define "hammered." For me it means that daily COVID / OMICRON deaths in the US during this wave will be higher than at any prior point since early 2020. If you think that's wrong, then we have a bet.

Seeing as how pandemics are apparently the most bullish thing ever for stocks, I would love for this to be true.

But it isn't, no one cares, and rates are going to be raised.

Inflation running wild.

Yet to get a 2% return on US T-bills, you need a 30 year bill!

What a racket

Prof. Racket wrote:But it isn't,...

OK we have a bet. racket thinks COVID fatalities will not exceed prior levels. We can look in on this in March / April.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:But it isn't,...

OK we have a bet. racket thinks COVID fatalities will not exceed prior levels. We can look in on this in March / April.

Don't you have anything better to do than doom over COVID?

Prof. Racket wrote:Don't you have anything better to do than doom over COVID?

Your LRC persona is fairly caustic. Is this an act, or a reflection of real life, I wonder?

And anyway, come March or April, maybe you get a fresh chance to gloat. You've made you call and I've made mine. We'll see...

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

And anyway, come March or April, maybe you get a fresh chance to gloat. You've made you call and I've made mine. We'll see...

k

SPX now down a mighty 4.3% from its highs. In other words, not very much.

until recently every year had a 14% drawdown, on average.

we're just so coddled now by lack of volatility.

although tech is down a more meaningful 9%.

VIX climbing now, which is good. up to 21ish. Need to see mid-20s before this ends.

I'm not very afraid of the Fed...what company or consumer makes decisions based on whether the fed reserve rate is 0 or 0.5% I mean come on. The fundamentals of the economy are very good so there is an underpinning to the market.

I just bought back into the bond market after a successful attempt at market timing. I waited it out as the 10 year climbed from 1.3% to 1.8%. Actually proud of this.

agip wrote:

SPX now down a mighty 4.3% from its highs. In other words, not very much.

until recently every year had a 14% drawdown, on average.

we're just so coddled now by lack of volatility.

although tech is down a more meaningful 9%.

VIX climbing now, which is good. up to 21ish. Need to see mid-20s before this ends.

I'm not very afraid of the Fed...what company or consumer makes decisions based on whether the fed reserve rate is 0 or 0.5% I mean come on. The fundamentals of the economy are very good so there is an underpinning to the market.

I just bought back into the bond market after a successful attempt at market timing. I waited it out as the 10 year climbed from 1.3% to 1.8%. Actually proud of this.

While the current inflation rate (as of Nov.) is 6.8% and steadily climbing ...

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave

2021 1.4 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.8

agreed inflation is an issue.

I'd expect that as we start lapping the plague quarters, inflation tames down.

Although with this labor shortage inflation won't go too low.

Just looking around the world and what interest rates are...money is going to absolutely flood the US treasury if people think they can get 2% in the US vs so much less anywhere else. That shoudl support bonds denominated in dollars.