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2 years ago 01/07/2022 9:46pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Prof. Racket wrote:
That kind of labor is easily replaceable. No one is bemoaning the lack of overpaid middle-managers who haven't done anything in years but would cost too much to fire. You can easily replace them usually from within the company.
A much more significant driver, in my opinion, is that the available labor is spread too thinly across too many businesses, about 30% of which (at least) probably shouldn't exist anymore. There's way too many faux blockchain/AI/bullsh!t start ups, too many restaurants and Starbucks and knick-knack shops, and too many grocery/food delivery apps. Those places should have been btfo'd by a recession which keeps the economy running efficiently.
America has always been a place where the free market decides winners and losers, except after the Great Recession it was decided that everyone would be a winner. So congrats boomers - you all managed to create a participation award economy.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/apples-tim-cook-paid-over-1400-times-average-worker-2021-2022-01-07/

how much will be re-couped by reeling in the salaries of the few CEOs of this world? I don't think that's going to solve much.

Just start taking steps to ensure a living wage for labor, at all levels (including child care credits, etc,). Then the jobs are more appealing and will get filled, and people won't have to resort to gig-economy BS, delivery driver side jobs with no benefits, and the unsupported fringes of the labor force. That is where we should be headed to build a better, stronger, more resilient economy and workforce.

2 years ago 01/07/2022 10:11pm EST

re: Prof. Racket

Prof. Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
See article, and there are others, one reason for labor shortages:
https://news.yahoo.com/fat-401-ks-causing-people-to-retire-early-oxford-economics-202802644.html
That kind of labor is easily replaceable. No one is bemoaning the lack of overpaid middle-managers who haven't done anything in years but would cost too much to fire. You can easily replace them usually from within the company.
A much more significant driver, in my opinion, is that the available labor is spread too thinly across too many businesses, about 30% of which (at least) probably shouldn't exist anymore. There's way too many faux blockchain/AI/bullsh!t start ups, too many restaurants and Starbucks and knick-knack shops, and too many grocery/food delivery apps. Those places should have been btfo'd by a recession which keeps the economy running efficiently.
America has always been a place where the free market decides winners and losers, except after the Great Recession it was decided that everyone would be a winner. So congrats boomers - you all managed to create a participation award economy.

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=11052373

2 years ago 01/07/2022 10:48pm EST

re: seattle prattle

seattle prattle wrote:
Bummbull wrote:
I think it’s fine to reduce your risk in retirement, and go higher in bonds, but still hold equity.
Yea, there’s definitely risk of not making as much for holding too much bond, and it depends on the individual’s circumstances. I guess my view is that if you’re in retirement, you’ve won the game and have accumulated enough to do what you want in retirement. It doesn’t matter if you make another million or not.
If you’re still having to rely during retirement for you to make significant gains to stay afloat, that’s a different scenario.
Anyways, my whole point was more to someone who’s still in the accumulation phase and to stay the course. Don’t get spooked or try to time the correction. More money is lost preparing for correction than correction itself.
I tend to favor this line of thought. And I started reading your WSJ article, Agip, yes, it was this is sounding familiar...
The real value of the NY times Opinion piece strategy is simply this: Consider the role of a defined benefits component in your later retirement years and adjust your allocations with that as a starting point. But just because it might allow for a higher bias towards equities, it doesn't mean that doing so would be preferred or preferable for the individual investor, as Bumbull noted.
And I wouldn't underestimate the formidable costs of assisted living facilities, nursing homes, etc., and the impact that will have on even the most respectable of retirement nest-eggs. I say that with the understanding that few of us will know if that is in our future, and if so, for how long.

Holding more equity in your retirement could be good idea if you plan to live long. It has better expected return over a long haul.

I think what’s best is to keep a lower withdrawal rate of around 2.5%-3% if your retirement length is long. Or, take 3%-5% out of your portfolio and adjust it each year depending on size of your portfolio. So, if your portfolio keeps climbing, you should be able to take out more. Or during a recession, you’ll need to live lean.

Obviously, the best thing to do is grow your portfolio as large as possible so you’ll only have to rely small amount of your portfolio. Or, continue working part time as you are part of the asset.

2 years ago 01/07/2022 10:53pm EST

re: seattle prattle

seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/apples-tim-cook-paid-over-1400-times-average-worker-2021-2022-01-07/
how much will be re-couped by reeling in the salaries of the few CEOs of this world? I don't think that's going to solve much.
Just start taking steps to ensure a living wage for labor, at all levels (including child care credits, etc,). Then the jobs are more appealing and will get filled, and people won't have to resort to gig-economy BS, delivery driver side jobs with no benefits, and the unsupported fringes of the labor force. That is where we should be headed to build a better, stronger, more resilient economy and workforce.

I agree with some of that. On the other hand, extreme greed and a rejection of the Puritan work ethic are extremes dominating American society today. There were no child care credits when my wife and I lived off one income . We did without; we didn’t expect government handouts.

2 years ago 01/08/2022 6:20am EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

good article on how tesla better managed the supply chain crisis.

we've talked about why investors have given TSLA such a massive multiple compared to other carmakers...here's another reason. Simply better execution and management.

Tesla managed the chip shortage by buying whatever chips they could find and simply rewriting the code around them.

Legacy automakers couldn't do that.

TSLA could be the size of BMW shortly in terms of cars sold.

That kind of execution that no one else can do is worth a lot of PE points.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/08/business/teslas-computer-chips-supply-chain.html

2 years ago 01/08/2022 8:12am EST

re: seattle prattle

seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/apples-tim-cook-paid-over-1400-times-average-worker-2021-2022-01-07/
how much will be re-couped by reeling in the salaries of the few CEOs of this world? I don't think that's going to solve much.
Just start taking steps to ensure a living wage for labor, at all levels (including child care credits, etc,). Then the jobs are more appealing and will get filled, and people won't have to resort to gig-economy BS, delivery driver side jobs with no benefits, and the unsupported fringes of the labor force. That is where we should be headed to build a better, stronger, more resilient economy and workforce.

Wage and benefits aren't really a problem. Just a few years ago people were marching in the streets demanding $15/hour minimum wage and now it's "lol imagine working for only $15/hour."

The problem is that the labor force is just stretched too thinly. One of my favorite examples is C3 AI and Palantir. Both employ smart people and pay them well, but they offer products that are entirely trivial in nature and ultimately do nothing. There existence is entirely extraneous.

The old way of thinking would have said this is bad because they're taking money that could be better spent and invested elsewhere, like on some cure for cancer or something. The Fed however proved that it can print enough enough money to fund some horseh!t tech buzzwords that basically amount to high school level linear regression and and a cure for cancer. But what they can't do is print more labor to serve both industries.

Some industries have legit high demand and need workers. Other industries are basically just idling their employees while the venture capital funds hope to strike it rich on a quick pump and dump IPO opportunity.

Recessions are a normal and healthy part of the business cycle.

2 years ago 01/08/2022 8:42am EST

re: Prof. Racket

BTC 41,816

up just 2% over 365 days ago

2 years ago 01/08/2022 12:00pm EST

re: agip

2 years ago 01/08/2022 12:22pm EST

re: Prof. Racket

Prof. Racket wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
how much will be re-couped by reeling in the salaries of the few CEOs of this world? I don't think that's going to solve much.
Just start taking steps to ensure a living wage for labor, at all levels (including child care credits, etc,). Then the jobs are more appealing and will get filled, and people won't have to resort to gig-economy BS, delivery driver side jobs with no benefits, and the unsupported fringes of the labor force. That is where we should be headed to build a better, stronger, more resilient economy and workforce.
Wage and benefits aren't really a problem. Just a few years ago people were marching in the streets demanding $15/hour minimum wage and now it's "lol imagine working for only $15/hour."
The problem is that the labor force is just stretched too thinly. One of my favorite examples is C3 AI and Palantir. Both employ smart people and pay them well, but they offer products that are entirely trivial in nature and ultimately do nothing. There existence is entirely extraneous.
The old way of thinking would have said this is bad because they're taking money that could be better spent and invested elsewhere, like on some cure for cancer or something. The Fed however proved that it can print enough enough money to fund some horseh!t tech buzzwords that basically amount to high school level linear regression and and a cure for cancer. But what they can't do is print more labor to serve both industries.
Some industries have legit high demand and need workers. Other industries are basically just idling their employees while the venture capital funds hope to strike it rich on a quick pump and dump IPO opportunity.
Recessions are a normal and healthy part of the business cycle.

while I don't doubt that. I think the issue rises to a level of complexity that the are numverous issues and a lot of negative consequences resulting from them. Honestly, i think we need broad ranging policy changes to address this, and the funds available need to be targeted better to foster the kind of fundamental economy that supports well paying jobs in products and services that likewise benefit the country in real ways.

It was not long ago that the good Professor himself was advocating for making those fundamental service types of jobs more attractive via competitive compensations and benefits, on this very forum, as a means to fill labor shortages, and thereby allowing good ole capitalism work its wonders, if I remember correctly.

I think that will is there to see great headway in this regard, but the political climate in Washington is killing it. The next few months will be pivotal. I think that a lot is at stake.

2 years ago 01/08/2022 12:26pm EST

re: agip

agip wrote:
BTC 41,816
up just 2% over 365 days ago

you mean, kind of like a CD ladder?

hmmmmm.....

2 years ago 01/08/2022 2:17pm EST

re: seattle prattle

seattle prattle wrote:
Prof. Racket wrote:
Wage and benefits aren't really a problem. Just a few years ago people were marching in the streets demanding $15/hour minimum wage and now it's "lol imagine working for only $15/hour."
The problem is that the labor force is just stretched too thinly. One of my favorite examples is C3 AI and Palantir. Both employ smart people and pay them well, but they offer products that are entirely trivial in nature and ultimately do nothing. There existence is entirely extraneous.
The old way of thinking would have said this is bad because they're taking money that could be better spent and invested elsewhere, like on some cure for cancer or something. The Fed however proved that it can print enough enough money to fund some horseh!t tech buzzwords that basically amount to high school level linear regression and and a cure for cancer. But what they can't do is print more labor to serve both industries.
Some industries have legit high demand and need workers. Other industries are basically just idling their employees while the venture capital funds hope to strike it rich on a quick pump and dump IPO opportunity.
Recessions are a normal and healthy part of the business cycle.
while I don't doubt that. I think the issue rises to a level of complexity that the are numverous issues and a lot of negative consequences resulting from them. Honestly, i think we need broad ranging policy changes to address this, and the funds available need to be targeted better to foster the kind of fundamental economy that supports well paying jobs in products and services that likewise benefit the country in real ways.
It was not long ago that the good Professor himself was advocating for making those fundamental service types of jobs more attractive via competitive compensations and benefits, on this very forum, as a means to fill labor shortages, and thereby allowing good ole capitalism work its wonders, if I remember correctly.
I think that will is there to see great headway in this regard, but the political climate in Washington is killing it. The next few months will be pivotal. I think that a lot is at stake.

How dare you use my own talking points against me!!

>:(

I don't have a full explanation for it all obviously but I am pretty interested to see how this all turns out. Does the labor shortage loosen up (and if so, how?) or do we just grind out the next 5-10 years dealing with workforce issues. Interesting times for sure

2 years ago 01/08/2022 3:29pm EST

re: Prof. Racket

Prof. Racket wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
while I don't doubt that. I think the issue rises to a level of complexity that the are numverous issues and a lot of negative consequences resulting from them. Honestly, i think we need broad ranging policy changes to address this, and the funds available need to be targeted better to foster the kind of fundamental economy that supports well paying jobs in products and services that likewise benefit the country in real ways.
It was not long ago that the good Professor himself was advocating for making those fundamental service types of jobs more attractive via competitive compensations and benefits, on this very forum, as a means to fill labor shortages, and thereby allowing good ole capitalism work its wonders, if I remember correctly.
I think that will is there to see great headway in this regard, but the political climate in Washington is killing it. The next few months will be pivotal. I think that a lot is at stake.
How dare you use my own talking points against me!!
>:(
I don't have a full explanation for it all obviously but I am pretty interested to see how this all turns out. Does the labor shortage loosen up (and if so, how?) or do we just grind out the next 5-10 years dealing with workforce issues. Interesting times for sure

The Japan model is a possibility...a steadily shrinking and aging population, emptying-out countryside but thriving cities, a barely growing economy, massive debts, but it still stays wealthy and stable.

The idea of a wealthy, aging population is a new one for the world....retire at 60 and live for 40 years? Gonna happen, and it's gonna make workers hard to find, at a negative replacement birthrate.

Obviously immigrants are the solution, but the nation has done one of its periodic moves away from liking immigration.

2 years ago 01/08/2022 4:02pm EST

re: seattle prattle

seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
BTC 41,816
up just 2% over 365 days ago
you mean, kind of like a CD ladder?
hmmmmm.....

You beat me to it. Well played.

2 years ago 01/09/2022 11:15am EST

re: Prof. Racket

Posted below is what the Russians say about America’s anti-work movement. Interesting that the proliferation of government handouts and paid child care seem increasingly Soviet inspired. Who’s influencing the left?

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/reddits-antiwork-forum-booms-millions-americans-refuse-work

2 years ago 01/09/2022 11:19am EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bitcoin has lost $500 billion in market value since the high. Someone has lost money.

https://cryptopotato.com/500-million-in-liquidations-as-bitcoin-struggles-around-42k/

2 years ago 01/09/2022 1:11pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Posted below is what the Russians say about America’s anti-work movement. Interesting that the proliferation of government handouts and paid child care seem increasingly Soviet inspired. Who’s influencing the left?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/reddits-antiwork-forum-booms-millions-americans-refuse-work

Good one, Igy.

You accuse the left of being influenced by the Soviet style governance, and in the next sentencem you use a highly biased Soviet news agency as your source, inspiration, and proof.

Got it.

FWIW, I won't customarily read slanted journalism like ZeroHedge so unless you paraphrase their point or quote a pertinent section, you will otherwise find me over reading the Sunday NY Times.

Enjoy your day.

2 years ago 01/09/2022 1:24pm EST

re: seattle prattle

You guys think Russia invading and taking eastern Ukraine until the Dnieper River (my highest probability prediction) is priced into the markets?

2 years ago 01/09/2022 1:41pm EST

re: Swaglord__69

Swaglord__69 wrote:
You guys think Russia invading and taking eastern Ukraine until the Dnieper River (my highest probability prediction) is priced into the markets?

Priced in and honestly not many people outside of Ukraine seem to care if it gets invaded or not. Might affect nat gas futures but that's about it.

2 years ago 01/09/2022 1:41pm EST

re: Swaglord__69

Swaglord__69 wrote:
You guys think Russia invading and taking eastern Ukraine until the Dnieper River (my highest probability prediction) is priced into the markets?

Yes, until which time that it may actually escalate to the point that it will not be averted.

I think the market has other issues in its focus that eclipse that one at the moment.

But this week will be pivotal with the beginning of negotiations. I'm just starting to understand Russia's desires in this regard, and maybe a negotiated agreement may be possible.

Major consequences if this doesn't get resolved, and I agree that it is something to watch, for many reasons.

2 years ago 01/09/2022 1:56pm EST

re: seattle prattle

Seattle,

Your post put an exclamation point on mine.

I would be most interested in how a Ukrainian invasion by Russia would impact the Biden Family Business interests. Perhaps something for the Times to investigate, they’re unbiased. 😷

Igy

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