Down goes the Dow

So, almost done with the year.

Are you going to beat the Dow this year?

As we sit today, it looks like I will.

Dow - +19.22% YTD

Flagpole- +20.45 YTD

It's usually not that close, but this year it is.

Either way, and even if you didn't beat the Dow this year, more than likely a good year.

A very Happy New Year to all of you, and I do mean ALL of you.

Flagpole wrote:

So, almost done with the year.

Are you going to beat the Dow this year?

As we sit today, it looks like I will.

Dow - +19.22% YTD

Flagpole- +20.45 YTD

It's usually not that close, but this year it is.

Either way, and even if you didn't beat the Dow this year, more than likely a good year.

A very Happy New Year to all of you, and I do mean ALL of you.

Happy new year to you as well, Flagpole.

Yes, beat the DJI handedly, and Naz and SNP for that matter.

Another good year.

We are the fortunate ones, and this good fortune isn't being enjoyed across the demographics.

Would very much like to see some progress made in that regard in the new year, on the legislative front.

Got to get going now, but will read interesting (longer) posts by Mas, Igy, et. al. later)

Cheers.

Flagpole wrote:

So, almost done with the year.

Are you going to beat the Dow this year?

As we sit today, it looks like I will.

Dow - +19.22% YTD

Flagpole- +20.45 YTD

It's usually not that close, but this year it is.

Either way, and even if you didn't beat the Dow this year, more than likely a good year.

A very Happy New Year to all of you, and I do mean ALL of you.

What a nice gesture, Flagpole. I think Flagpole Investments will come back with a vengeance in 2022 and will trounce Dow/Nasdaq/S&P by a fair margin. May you have a wonderful new year as well and give our best to Mrs. Flagpole and everyone else in the Flagpole household.

Cool. I did NOT beat the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ this year. I don't typically use them as my benchmark, but man they did well this year. I agree 100% that we are the fortunate ones. I am not a Socialist, but somewhere between there and where we are there should be a way to give less fortunate people (poor, uneducated, not smart, disabled) a better life than they can have now.

I totally agree. I think there are good ideas floating around now on how this could be achieved.

The new year will be pivotal. Hopefully compromise will save the day because the obstacles are formidable.

FWIW, i appreciate the time and energy that has been invested in this discourse here on LRC by several among us. It is, in my opinion, exemplary.

I am not mentioning any names but I think you know who you are.

Thank you for that.

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

So, almost done with the year.

Are you going to beat the Dow this year?

As we sit today, it looks like I will.

Dow - +19.22% YTD

Flagpole- +20.45 YTD

It's usually not that close, but this year it is.

Either way, and even if you didn't beat the Dow this year, more than likely a good year.

A very Happy New Year to all of you, and I do mean ALL of you.

What a nice gesture, Flagpole. I think Flagpole Investments will come back with a vengeance in 2022 and will trounce Dow/Nasdaq/S&P by a fair margin. May you have a wonderful new year as well and give our best to Mrs. Flagpole and everyone else in the Flagpole household.

Hello Sally. These days, I don't really need to do well at all in the market. If I'm at the level of the Dow or thereabouts, I'll consider it a good year, and if down, I just won't care too much. The amount of money I made in the market in 2022 is obscene, and lots of people did better (percentagewise at least) than me.

I am going to take this Happy New Year goodwill through the entirety of 2022. So, a specific Happy New Year to you.

Yep, had my best investments year ever.

But I’m thinking of going Flagpole-lame with stocks/bonds in 2022. Getting ready to pull the trigger on a good many things.

Hey agip I just got the last 10k of ibonds for 2021, and will be getting another 20k first week of Jan, then maybe another 10k via tax returns for a total of 50k, so far. Savings bonds!!!! Lololol, go figure. I like that I can get out and eat only 3 months’ interest.

Doomsday crowd is again forecasting financial armageddon “just around the corner”, in Q1. Some forecasting serious disinflation in Q1. For me, int’l diversification will be key—USA, Canada, Schweiz, EU (a bit), SE Asia, maybe Norway, maybe NZ, maybe Singapore. I don’t have a good sense of what is to come, anywhere.

Curious, what stocks/bonds exposure would you guys recommend for us? 55 and 51, enough money if society doesn’t fall apart, currently living on work income still, but needs very small and modest. I hesitate to commit more than 33%, it just seems so difficult to set it and forget it. Family needs already taken care of.

TRBCX leaves a fuzzy taste in my mouth, it is something like 11% AMZN. It is my only such fund experience, and it’s a meh, especially lately.

If you guys have so much conviction (either way), why are you mot shorting/playing futures/buying 3x geared products?

No bonds in my portfolio, brother!

SARK over Bitcoin. TUR over FANG. Cash over S&P 500.

Don’t look now, because Bitcoin is under $46,500…..

I don’t think I would be proud of that.

It is a tiny allocation for me, but worth trying out to see how it feels, and how it fares during a time where all I can divine is uncertainty. If it feels ok, I would even consider buying another 20 or 30k in 2023. Feeling depends on relative performance, my need to have something in the US, and performance of the USD.

I'm up 16-17% for the year

which is far below the stock indices, but I'm not trying to match those.

Although globally (ticker VT), stocks were up around 18% this year, so technically I'm not far behind that all-stock index.

My main benchmark is a global 60/40 portfolio, something like VSMGX.

That benchmark was up around 10% this year, so I clobbered my benchmark so I am pleased.

My main good decisions were overweighting the US, overweighting tech and massively overweighting TIPS over straight treasuries.

My main bad decision was overweighting emerging markets. But in the fall I cut that back, admitting error, and that has been a good decision so far.

I'm in the wealth preservation phase of life so I'm trying to hold back on risk as much as FOMO allows.

agip wrote:

I'm up 16-17% for the year

which is far below the stock indices, but I'm not trying to match those.

Although globally (ticker VT), stocks were up around 18% this year, so technically I'm not far behind that all-stock index.

My main benchmark is a global 60/40 portfolio, something like VSMGX.

That benchmark was up around 10% this year, so I clobbered my benchmark so I am pleased.

My main good decisions were overweighting the US, overweighting tech and massively overweighting TIPS over straight treasuries.

My main bad decision was overweighting emerging markets. But in the fall I cut that back, admitting error, and that has been a good decision so far.

I'm in the wealth preservation phase of life so I'm trying to hold back on risk as much as FOMO allows.

Weekly reminder that stocks only go up

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

I'm up 16-17% for the year

which is far below the stock indices, but I'm not trying to match those.

Although globally (ticker VT), stocks were up around 18% this year, so technically I'm not far behind that all-stock index.

My main benchmark is a global 60/40 portfolio, something like VSMGX.

That benchmark was up around 10% this year, so I clobbered my benchmark so I am pleased.

My main good decisions were overweighting the US, overweighting tech and massively overweighting TIPS over straight treasuries.

My main bad decision was overweighting emerging markets. But in the fall I cut that back, admitting error, and that has been a good decision so far.

I'm in the wealth preservation phase of life so I'm trying to hold back on risk as much as FOMO allows.

Weekly reminder that stocks only go up

Honestly i don’t know what you mean when you say that.

I mean you see how emerging stonks have gone nowhere for 10 years, I think Japan has gone nowhere for 30 years and some European markets have gone barely anywhere for a decade.

The US is not that special.

I do some of that, but I can't say I'm proud of it.

Hoping to make amends in the new year. Again.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

No bonds in my portfolio, brother!

I don’t think I would be proud of that.

Ok. I am neither proud nor ashamed...just being clear.

I am more than ok for people to have bonds in their portfolio, but I don't want to lock into that low return level of investment, so instead, I have decided to have 3 YEARS of expenses in a liquid vehicle not tied to the market as a hedge against the market crashing while in retirement. At this point, it doesn't even matter though, honestly. I have way more than I ever thought I would and way more than I need.

Happy New Year, brother.

Flagpole wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I don’t think I would be proud of that.

Ok. I am neither proud nor ashamed...just being clear.

I am more than ok for people to have bonds in their portfolio, but I don't want to lock into that low return level of investment, so instead, I have decided to have 3 YEARS of expenses in a liquid vehicle not tied to the market as a hedge against the market crashing while in retirement. At this point, it doesn't even matter though, honestly. I have way more than I ever thought I would and way more than I need.

Happy New Year, brother.

BTW this is sort of the beauty of Ibonds...they aren't marketable securities so you have no risk of loss if interest rates rise, and they keep up with inflation.

Having a giant pile of them in retirement sounds pretty good to me. uncorrelated to market moves in bonds.

I sure wish I had been buying them for 30 years. Some of those older Ibonds are making 10% or 15% with zero risk.

Flagpole wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I don’t think I would be proud of that.

Ok. I am neither proud nor ashamed...just being clear.

I am more than ok for people to have bonds in their portfolio, but I don't want to lock into that low return level of investment, so instead, I have decided to have 3 YEARS of expenses in a liquid vehicle not tied to the market as a hedge against the market crashing while in retirement. At this point, it doesn't even matter though, honestly. I have way more than I ever thought I would and way more than I need.

Happy New Year, brother.

What is the liquid fund? Just curios. Most would be consider fixed income, though not necessarily bonds.

Happy New Year to you Flagpole.