Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

If you had bought $10,000 of MSFT at the HEIGHT of the dot-com bubble it would be worth about $70,000 today.

Hussmann "Strategic" fund (HSGFX) has a 10-year return of NEGATIVE 6.13%.

That factoid has zero to do with the next ten years. On the other hand is most likely negative correlated.

HSGFX has negative returns for the following:

YTD

1-month

3-month

1-year

3-year

5-year

10-year

Last Bull market

You said recently you were buying more HSGFX.

Wasn't it Einstein who said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

That factoid has zero to do with the next ten years. On the other hand is most likely negative correlated.

HSGFX has negative returns for the following:

YTD

1-month

3-month

1-year

3-year

5-year

10-year

Last Bull market

You said recently you were buying more HSGFX.

Wasn't it Einstein who said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?

As you continue to buy the same investments that fueled the greatest equity bubble in financial history.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

HSGFX has negative returns for the following:

YTD

1-month

3-month

1-year

3-year

5-year

10-year

Last Bull market

You said recently you were buying more HSGFX.

Wasn't it Einstein who said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?

As you continue to buy the same investments that fueled the greatest equity bubble in financial history.

Wouldn't that be the South Sea bubble of 1720? I am not buying anymore of those shares.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Personally I would expect another dump early in the new year with Bitcoin to $33k. Things will get worse as the 2022 marches on.

If BTC falls under 30k again then I'll buy one.

Of course you’re buying it; you’re all in.

to resurrect a past conversation on whether getting older makes you a better or worse investor...

home prices have gone parabolic. +20% or more year over year. Crazeballs stuff.

An old salt like most of us here will remember 2008 and say 'hey I remember this - a home price bubble juiced all assets and when home prices fell, they wrecked virtually every asset on the planet. I better sell stocks now.'

So is that the right reaction? to sell stocks now? Or is this just some kind of post-covid artifact that will fade and we won't even remember it in a few months?

Maybe the oldsters are right to be afraid, maybe the youngsters are right to say HODL.

I dunno. I'll put it in my calendar for end 2022.

"The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.1% annual gain in October, down from 19.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.1%, down from 17.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted an 18.4% year-over-year gain, down from 19.1% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Phoenix led the way with a 32.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 28.1% increase and Miami with a 25.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending October 2021 versus the year ending September 2021."

Same old same old.

But many active stock funds struggle to beat the market in a given year, and 2021 fits the pattern. Some 85% of active U.S. stock funds were on pace to underperform the S&P 500 this year as of Nov. 30, according to Morningstar Direct. In the same period a year ago, 64% of such funds were running behind the S&P 500, according to Morningsta

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Of course you’re buying it; you’re all in.

No, that’s me, but at 16k, not 30.

Vast riches, here I come! 🙂

Can we just go back to repeating the DGTD mantra (you know the one):

Stocks only go up.

Personally, I find it hard to sell in any significant way.

agip wrote:

Same old same old.

But many active stock funds struggle to beat the market in a given year, and 2021 fits the pattern. Some 85% of active U.S. stock funds were on pace to underperform the S&P 500 this year as of Nov. 30, according to Morningstar Direct. In the same period a year ago, 64% of such funds were running behind the S&P 500, according to Morningsta

Just in case you missed it, SARK up 26+% this year. Unmanaging Wood’s managing.

Picked up a little Boeing about 3 weeks ago on a big dip, and a little Southwest Airlines this morning.

Both are down hard for some pretty obvious reasons, and I picked up the shares at a discount from where i sold them at a loss earlier in the year.

I know it is not a wise investing strategy, but it bugs me when i sell a stock at a loss. So when i had a chance to pick it back up at the cost I sold it at (the case for Boeing), or even significantly lower (the case for Southwest), I tend to do it, re-coupe my loss as i hopefully ride it back up (eventually), and restore my wounded pride.

It may take a year, but as we have been discussing, it's probably a good time to start taking some profits from our winners, and therein sits some cash to put to work.

The biggest problem with Boeing is sacrificing engineering and safety to produce a somewhat suspect airframe in order to rubber stamp a quick FAA approval to beat out Airbus. As if moving larger fuel efficient engines forward does not present balance issues on takeoff and landing. Of course thinking computer software can compensate. That didn’t workout so well, especially the 350 lost souls.

The problematic 737 Max airframe makes you wonder if it really should ever fly.

https://www.boeing.com/737-max-updates/

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The biggest problem with Boeing is sacrificing engineering and safety to produce a somewhat suspect airframe in order to rubber stamp a quick FAA approval to beat out Airbus. As if moving larger fuel efficient engines forward does not present balance issues on takeoff and landing. Of course thinking computer software can compensate. That didn’t workout so well, especially the 350 lost souls.

I followed that story for a while as it was evolving and Boeing's culpability was alarming and shocking. I would have thought a company of that caliber would have had more stringent safeguards and follow-through of training protocols, product reviews, etc. It seems, on the contrary, to paint a picture of self-interest and oversight.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

VTI has a 16.33% annual return over the last 10 years. Over the last 3 years it has an annual return of about 22% even with the pandemic. At that rate you are about doubling your investment ever 3.5 years. Not too shabby.

Return driven by components of the top ten holdings (guess who?), which just happen to be 25% of the fund. Probably one of the worst picks for the next ten years.

There’s your BUY signal, folks!

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Return driven by components of the top ten holdings (guess who?), which just happen to be 25% of the fund. Probably one of the worst picks for the next ten years.

There’s your BUY signal, folks!

No SARK was and you missed it. Too bad.

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

HSGFX has negative returns for the following:

YTD

1-month

3-month

1-year

3-year

5-year

10-year

Last Bull market

You said recently you were buying more HSGFX.

Wasn't it Einstein who said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

As you continue to buy the same investments that fueled the greatest equity bubble in financial history.