Down goes the Dow

Ans as for concentration of control, the USD and other fiats have bitcoin beat, by a mile. The obvious tendency to gov control is evidenced by the fact that the US gov is in bitcoin, big-time. Possibly the 2nd-biggest holder. Maybe now the biggest. Takeover is/was easy at this point, easier than first agreeing on regulation.

Nobody knows exactly what the future holds for anything including bitcoin, but given publicly-available knowledge, everybody who can, should have some skin in the game. My guess is that it will end up being controlled from the inside, by gov takeover. Prospects for gain long-term are therefore speculative, and dependent on the whims of future administrations and groups of nations.

Maser wrote:

Bitcoin north of 49k, up 117% YTD.

.

maybe a better stat is that BTC has gone nowhere since early Feb 2021.

I'm definitely biased against BTC....something with no cash flow and no history is just a greater-fool investment, which I'm fundamentally against.

But at some point the youngsters with short attention spans will move on and get bored with BTC, call it their dad's investment, and go do something else with their money.

Maybe if it goes nowhere for a year or more, that will be the time.

The Unkle wrote:

agip wrote:

BTC down to 38,000...down 40% from high

back to a price first hit the first week of the year

Coinbase down 47% from its high price

Doge down a magic 50% from its highs.

gold is surging a bit - at its highest price since the first week of the year.

Is there a point anyone on the thread would buy BTC?

Yep.

100k by end of year

here's 'unkle' saying BTC would hit 100k in 2021.

Nah. But got to 69,000ish.

This bad prediction was made on 5/19/21

Who makes more bad predictions, ‘Unkle’ or Igy?

Maser wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Meanwhile in the crypto world:

https://twitter.com/AndrewPGregory/status/1473482844005715968

I will say it once more for you guys: anybody who matters is already in.

I saw that—

“the top 0.01% of holders control only—

(checks notes) 27% of all bitcoins in circulation—

a mere 10k accounts hold 5M bitcoins worth $232B Fuel pump”

Idk why, but I feel the need to balance the bitcoin discussion.

Yes, it can be cash-flowed.

Yes, it has now 10 years of history.

While not a panacea, it has its virtues, whether you acknowledge them or not. That some people resist a balanced view is not fatal.

This bitcoin support comes from a guy who followed your lead and who is maxxing-out on I-series. Real diversification requires an open and active mind, and a knowledge of how to take good advantage of what you see.

I can buy bonds even while acknowledging that they are at best net zero after inflation—and negative in my own view of inflation. It is easy for me to square that circle, because I won’t be dumping a significant fraction of my assets into them, same as with bitcoin.

wondering wrote:

Who makes more bad predictions, ‘Unkle’ or Igy?

I thought they were the same person.

Buy SARK and TUR.

😷

Maser wrote:

Idk why, but I feel the need to balance the bitcoin discussion.

Yes, it can be cash-flowed.

Yes, it has now 10 years of history.

While not a panacea, it has its virtues, whether you acknowledge them or not. That some people resist a balanced view is not fatal.

This bitcoin support comes from a guy who followed your lead and who is maxxing-out on I-series. Real diversification requires an open and active mind, and a knowledge of how to take good advantage of what you see.

I can buy bonds even while acknowledging that they are at best net zero after inflation—and negative in my own view of inflation. It is easy for me to square that circle, because I won’t be dumping a significant fraction of my assets into them, same as with bitcoin.

agreed I suppose that it has some history now...but not for 90% of investors who got in during the last couple of years. So they will not be attached to BTC and may flee for greener pastures pretty soon.

And come on....for 99.9% of BTC holders there is no cash flow.

This is interesting for those who think about these things:

You all know the 4% rule for withdrawls during retirement

there's been some questions on whether it is still valid

because bonds now yield 1%, not 5% or 7%

Here's the founder of the idea saying 'look, I picked 4% because that was the worst-case scenario. 4% worked for those who retired at the very absolute worst time. So really 4% is a low number. It still works.'

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/16e5f24b-13c3-3d4f-88ac-3879ba956ce0/is-4-rule-too-high-rule.html

agip wrote:

Maser wrote:

Bitcoin north of 49k, up 117% YTD.

.

maybe a better stat is that BTC has gone nowhere since early Feb 2021.

I'm definitely biased against BTC....something with no cash flow and no history is just a greater-fool investment, which I'm fundamentally against.

But at some point the youngsters with short attention spans will move on and get bored with BTC, call it their dad's investment, and go do something else with their money.

Maybe if it goes nowhere for a year or more, that will be the time.

agip wrote:

And come on....for 99.9% of BTC holders there is no cash flow.

And how much amzn do you own? Fb? Nflx? Etc.

“90% of investors who got in during the last couple of years”

The issue raised was the vehicle’s history, not the owners’ histories.

Maser wrote:

agip wrote:

And come on....for 99.9% of BTC holders there is no cash flow.

And how much amzn do you own? Fb? Nflx? Etc.

“90% of investors who got in during the last couple of years”

The issue raised was the vehicle’s history, not the owners’ histories.

Those companies return cash flow to the insiders. How else can they afford to be astronauts or live in walled compounds on Kauai? 😷🏝

On bitcoin - I can definitely see that if it trades flat for close to a year, interest would wane, price drop.

Personally, i don't find it prudent to speculate with anything beyond the smallest of a "token" amount, and thankfully, the stock market has been a very viable and lucrative alternative, with less risk and more safeguards. For now, really more of a distraction than anything. Also, the environmental train wreck that is crypto mining makes me frankly quite ashamed of my albeit minimal participation.

On 4% rule, yeah, i heard that one would be well advised to nudge that up. But I also have seen that the really prudent thing to do is run your numbers for your own unique set of circumstances in line with your avg. annual spending and how you expect that to change in retirement. Personally, I like shooting for amassing a sum sufficient to just live off of a modest ROI annually, leaving cost basis intact.

Tesla making waves today, and not sure what that's all about, but will look into it shortly.

Musk said he’s done selling shares.

Slammed Pocahontas and said “wokeness at its heart is divisive.”

Maser wrote:

Ans as for concentration of control, the USD and other fiats have bitcoin beat, by a mile. The obvious tendency to gov control is evidenced by the fact that the US gov is in bitcoin, big-time. Possibly the 2nd-biggest holder. Maybe now the biggest. Takeover is/was easy at this point, easier than first agreeing on regulation.

Nobody knows exactly what the future holds for anything including bitcoin, but given publicly-available knowledge, everybody who can, should have some skin in the game. My guess is that it will end up being controlled from the inside, by gov takeover. Prospects for gain long-term are therefore speculative, and dependent on the whims of future administrations and groups of nations.

It's nothing more than a convenient novelty. My guess is that it gets BTFO'd hard once people start to realize it has no actual future as a usable currency, and then fizzles out. When? Who knows, probably in the next 5-10 years. And then people who claimed it would change the world get laughed at even more.

I'll buy you an ice cream cone if I'm wrong though

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

wondering wrote:

Who makes more bad predictions, ‘Unkle’ or Igy?

I thought they were the same person.

Easy to confuse them, but Unkle is the anti-Semite and Igy is the racist.

Gruntz wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I thought they were the same person.

Easy to confuse them, but Unkle is the anti-Semite and Igy is the racist.

And you are insane, so there you go.

Dr. Racket wrote:

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Great, it's a bet! $77/share on 31 December decides which of us extends the other their dignity.

I'll take this bet because I'm bored and have nothing better to do, but I'm emphasizing the fact that things like this can happen because of the market conditions. I'm not actually bullish on GameStop - it's a fvcking brick and mortar retail store selling low margin video games and funko pop toys.

But yes, I think it can easily stay above $77/share by end of year. I also reserve the right to cancel the bet in the event of highly damaging market-wide external forces, like a meteor hitting Earth or another pandemic.

On 1/27/21 there were some bets placed about the price of GME by the end of 2021:

Looks like:

Racket said over $77

VS...idiot said under $77

Fisky said under $50

aaaaaaand the winner is Racket, again. Current GME price: $154

page 2332 if you want to look back