If one believes this is the biggest bubble ever why would they care? I feel things are fundamentally worse today then they were at the March lows of 2020. $Trillions in QE and stimulus just masks the fragility of markets. Joe Manchin just put a fork in the latest stupid idea. I just spent $13.96 for four avocados.
I am considering a purchase of TUR the Turkey ETF.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I never look back on anything I have ever done.
Yeah instead you just stay the course, expecting a different result each year from the exact same bullsh!t.
I've taken flack for this before from some users for being "insensitive", but I legitimately, sincerely believe that if you took an IQ you would score under 75.
Prof. Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I never look back on anything I have ever done.
Yeah instead you just stay the course, expecting a different result each year from the exact same bullsh!t.
I've taken flack for this before from some users for being "insensitive", but I legitimately, sincerely believe that if you took an IQ you would score under 75.
I’ll pass on a comment, for now.
Starting to look like 2008 again.
Fed says something, marker jumps up, the immediately returns to downward trend.
Watched this happen in 2008 about 4 times and bailed the heck out after the 4th time.
Saved myself a lot of money and aggravation.
Know people who were then in their 60s lose over $1 million in retirement money in a matter of weeks
carmine9 wrote:
Starting to look like 2008 again.
Fed says something, marker jumps up, the immediately returns to downward trend.
Watched this happen in 2008 about 4 times and bailed the heck out after the 4th time.
Saved myself a lot of money and aggravation.
Know people who were then in their 60s lose over $1 million in retirement money in a matter of weeks
Word.
I also am starting to get that feel, although there are mechanisms in place today that were only dreamt of in ‘08. I don’t think “markets” will play out again as they did back then.
Having said that, I once again would escape any such disaster were it to arrive, as I am something like 2.5% or less invested at the moment. Nervous again.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I never look back on anything I have ever done.
Igy...
Maser wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
Starting to look like 2008 again.
Fed says something, marker jumps up, the immediately returns to downward trend.
Watched this happen in 2008 about 4 times and bailed the heck out after the 4th time.
Saved myself a lot of money and aggravation.
Know people who were then in their 60s lose over $1 million in retirement money in a matter of weeks
Word.
I also am starting to get that feel, although there are mechanisms in place today that were only dreamt of in ‘08. I don’t think “markets” will play out again as they did back then.
Having said that, I once again would escape any such disaster were it to arrive, as I am something like 2.5% or less invested at the moment. Nervous again.
Doubt there are any mechanisms in place today to prevent a meltdown
investing noob wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Putin approved this release on Trump supporter Cathie Wood. Surprising considering the cross currents. 😷
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cathie-wood-claims-her-innovation-stocks-are-deep-value-territory-predicts-40-returns-nextI don't get how people are still buying ARKK now.
That being said, the Build Back Better bill looks dead now? Maybe the hype stocks will pump again this week.
I actually waded through a ZH article linked on here, and read through the comments—where I found what I thought to be a hilarious graphic sort of joke, when someone referred to Biden’s slogan as
“6uild 6ack 6etter”😂.
It looked better with the font they used.
Igy I would buy anything related to Turkey only if I could get it at absolute fire-sale prices. Did you short TRY? I actually like Turkey, but the everyman and perhaps foreign investor can get left with nothing. I like them, but I would never trust them to do anything that ensured any interest other than their own—as a country or ruling/managing elite, that is. I find them great on a personal level—and those I know don’t trust things, either.
Maser wrote:...I actually like Turkey, but the everyman and perhaps foreign investor can get left with nothing. I like them, but I would never trust them to do anything that ensured any interest other than their own—as a country or ruling/managing elite, that is. I find them great on a personal level—and those I know don’t trust things, either.
We had a friend/colleague who returned to Turkey to be shipped off to command troops near the Syrian border, shortly before the failed coup happened in 2016. Another friend with deeper insight of the regional situation (mas, you may have known him, BI) suggested Ergodan drummed up the "coup" to flush out disloyal people. Dunno, but our Turkish friend dropped off all social media soon afterward at the time that many thousands of people were jailed. Still a different friend (another one mas may have known, AP) had spent time in Turkey and was there during the failed coup. Some of his local colleagues were scooped up, and eventually returned unscathed. That friend has a home on the Mediterranean coast in a friendly nation in case he needs to skedaddle with his family ahead of unrest, as he did previously from Beirut.
I've been to Turkey only twice. First time a visit to Istanbul, which because the first time I'd visited Asia (for those who don't know, as I didn't then, the Bosphorus, which divides Istanbul, is the continental divide). I really enjoyed the visit, and our friend who later disappeared showed us a great time including a huge feast at friends' restaurant. The second time we visited Izmir, and took a day trip to the ruins at Ephasus and the nearby stone home believed by locals (because of a vision from a nun) to have been the last home of the virgin Mary. Super interesting day trip. On the drive back, I quizzed our poor tour guide the whole way about the situation in Turkey, and he had a lot of interesting opinions about the situation with Syrian refugees in Turkey (they number in the millions). I hope I didn't get him in trouble; he was being fairly frank with no regard for the driver, who he didn't know, and who probably didn't understand English, but who can ever know?
Looking at the value of the Turkish lira over the past few years, I can't imagine taking a chance on much of anything over there. Hyperinflation (which maybe this doesn't quite yet qualify as) is a dangerous thing for people's money. I watched the Croatian dinar melt down to nothing back in the early 90s. When you've got money devaluing like that, no point tucking it under the mattress (as I've done with a chunk of our net worth), you might as well just throw it into the wood stove as fuel.
carmine9 wrote:
Starting to look like 2008 again.
Fed says something, marker jumps up, the immediately returns to downward trend.
Watched this happen in 2008 about 4 times and bailed the heck out after the 4th time.
Saved myself a lot of money and aggravation.
Know people who were then in their 60s lose over $1 million in retirement money in a matter of weeks
I think it took the Dow Jones about 5 years to recover from the 2008 dive and only 4 months to recover last year after the Covid collapse. Unless you are very close to retirement I really think it is best to ride out any storm. Do not exit the equity markets.
danube steak wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
Starting to look like 2008 again.
Fed says something, marker jumps up, the immediately returns to downward trend.
Watched this happen in 2008 about 4 times and bailed the heck out after the 4th time.
Saved myself a lot of money and aggravation.
Know people who were then in their 60s lose over $1 million in retirement money in a matter of weeks
I think it took the Dow Jones about 5 years to recover from the 2008 dive and only 4 months to recover last year after the Covid collapse. Unless you are very close to retirement I really think it is best to ride out any storm. Do not exit the equity markets.
If you feel a massive drop is on the short horizon, why take the beating?
danube steak wrote:Unless you are very close to retirement I really think it is best to ride out any storm. Do not exit the equity markets.
This is an important point. My partner and I are getting close to retirement (0 to 5 years max). We have enough now that we can retire comfortably, and any further work just lets us tuck away a little more and retire a bit more comfortably. I'm not personally willing to chase potential big gains (with the possible outcome of being even a little more comfortable in retirement) against the possibility of taking a big loss that makes us tighten the belt and not have the retirement we want.
Everyone on this thread will have a different outlook and associated risk tolerance, and should make their own decisions from that point of view, not based on what random message board posters throw out as general advice.
carmine9 wrote:
danube steak wrote:
I think it took the Dow Jones about 5 years to recover from the 2008 dive and only 4 months to recover last year after the Covid collapse. Unless you are very close to retirement I really think it is best to ride out any storm. Do not exit the equity markets.
If you feel a massive drop is on the short horizon, why take the beating?
I am not saying a massive drop is coming soon. I just know you can't time the market and I am in for the next 20 years. I just know we have had so-called "experts" predicting a market collapse for 10 years now. So far they are batting about 0-8155.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I never look back on anything I have ever done.
😂
I have done nothing on TUR so far. Just ruminating.
All currency related as Lira drops in dollar terms. So more of a FX bet.
BTC 45k
has done nothing since February 2021.
I wonder if it has gone longer than that, ever, without a gain.
The worst thing that could happen to BTC is that people get bored with it.
Unless it somehow stabilizes, becomes a store of wealth, and people put actual long term money into it.
agip wrote:
BTC 45k
has done nothing since February 2021.
I wonder if it has gone longer than that, ever, without a gain.
The worst thing that could happen to BTC is that people get bored with it.
Unless it somehow stabilizes, becomes a store of wealth, and people put actual long term money into it.
Some people will react like the do with a stock. Get burned and they never go back.
