The used car market knows what the stock market knows 😷:
https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png
The used car market knows what the stock market knows 😷:
https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sold most of SARK yesterday. Bought some back down 4%. I’ll stick with it if there is a fork in the Santa Rally.
Do you have a stop loss? I'm also down 4% now. Last year ARKK was hit pretty hard in Feb/Mar so I was thinking of diamond handing this until then.
investing noob wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sold most of SARK yesterday. Bought some back down 4%. I’ll stick with it if there is a fork in the Santa Rally.
Do you have a stop loss? I'm also down 4% now. Last year ARKK was hit pretty hard in Feb/Mar so I was thinking of diamond handing this until then.
if you are trading like this with just a few percent of your portfolio, then fine. Have fun. I do that too.
If this kind of in and out thing is with more than say 10% of your portfolio....stop it now.
If you keep doing this, I guarantee that at some point of your life, maybe when you are around 50, you'll eye the 15 and 20 year return figures for the market as a whole and absolutely kick yourself for wasting so much money and time.
I know I did that. Wasted a lot of time, thinking books and ideas would let me be better than the market.
I wasn't. I'd be a lot richer if I had figured this out when I was 30 or 40 rather than 50.
+1
on the upper end, the various sectors don't show too much of a range, and are fairly tightly bundled (excluding the one-off stocks like Tesla, which are not sector indicative).
What does strike me, though, is the weaker relative performance of small caps and retail - both very major areas of the economy. Likely attributable to Omicron and the surge we are experiencing now, delaying a vigorous re-opening, as felt by the companies and industry that will feel that acutely. In their favor, I have noticed that both can move rather quickly as things change.
Agreed, EM and foreign in general have just not been delivering for far too long...
No stop loss. Always remember if you are using stop-loss make it a stop-loss limit order. That is a price on the downside that you would rather hold then sell. That way if the stock opens way below what you intended you will still hold, otherwise it executes at market, whatever market is.
Are you saying I should hold SARK long?
I think agip is saying speculate with a small portion of your portfolio. Micro managing is counterproductive longer term. I would agree with that sentiment.
Oh okay. I put like 20% of my Roth into SARK. But it's less than 1% of our net worth.
Putin approved this release on Trump supporter Cathie Wood. Surprising considering the cross currents. 😷
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Putin approved this release on Trump supporter Cathie Wood. Surprising considering the cross currents. 😷
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cathie-wood-claims-her-innovation-stocks-are-deep-value-territory-predicts-40-returns-next
I don't get how people are still buying ARKK now.
That being said, the Build Back Better bill looks dead now? Maybe the hype stocks will pump again this week.
investing noob wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Putin approved this release on Trump supporter Cathie Wood. Surprising considering the cross currents. 😷
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cathie-wood-claims-her-innovation-stocks-are-deep-value-territory-predicts-40-returns-nextI don't get how people are still buying ARKK now.
That being said, the Build Back Better bill looks dead now? Maybe the hype stocks will pump again this week.
I don't understand it either. People don't seem to realize it's totally normal for there to be active investors who occasionally, largely due to chance, have extraordinary years, only to be followed by lackluster or even abysmal years. This has happened so many times... And with ARKK, look at why it grew so much... It's so, so obvious that rate of growth is not going to continue.
Speculation is the driver. You see that phenomenon waning is SPACs, IPOs, meme stocks, and crypto. The true test for the markets is whether speculation in mega cap growth continue. Without it, a severe bear market.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Speculation is the driver. You see that phenomenon waning is SPACs, IPOs, meme stocks, and crypto. The true test for the markets is whether speculation in mega cap growth continue. Without it, a severe bear market.
Nice.
Start with speculation in the fringes of the spectrum and from there, generalize to the largest mainstream drivers of the world economies.
Check.
How's the used car market doing?
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Speculation is the driver. You see that phenomenon waning is SPACs, IPOs, meme stocks, and crypto. The true test for the markets is whether speculation in mega cap growth continue. Without it, a severe bear market.
Nice.
Start with speculation in the fringes of the spectrum and from there, generalize to the largest mainstream drivers of the world economies.
Check.
How's the used car market doing?
Apple PE 12/31/2017 16.62
Apple PE12/17/2021. 30.15
The facts belie the narrative, but that is what bubbles do. How else do you get a handful of $Trillion market cap companies in a matter of months?
3/4 of economists in this 2019 poll thought we'd have a recession by 2021
Did we have a recession? Yes, so technically they were correct, but for the wrong reasons.
The economists thought the recession would come from the trade wars and weak growth in Europe.
Those things turned out to no big deal to the US.
But obviously we did have a recession, because of COVID.
Technical knockout in favor of the economists, I suppose.
8/2019:
"Most economists believe the United States will tip into recession by 2021, a new survey shows, despite White House insistence the economy is sound.
Nearly 3 out of 4 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession by 2021, according to poll results released Monday. The outlook reflects growing skepticism among economists and investors that the U.S. economy will be able to withstand a protracted trade war with China without serious harm amid a weakening global outlook.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Nice.
Start with speculation in the fringes of the spectrum and from there, generalize to the largest mainstream drivers of the world economies.
Check.
How's the used car market doing?
Apple PE 12/31/2017 16.62
Apple PE12/17/2021. 30.15
The facts belie the narrative, but that is what bubbles do. How else do you get a handful of $Trillion market cap companies in a matter of months?
So, do you regret your forecasts and market outlooks from five or more years ago, which were very much the same as they are today, or do you somehow think that they are yet to be vindicated, confirmed, and realized?
I never look back on anything I have ever done.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I never look back on anything I have ever done.
Well, to me at least, it undermines your argument that you have been making it for 5 years or more, and the market has doubled and more in that time.