Down goes the Dow

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

An "expert" is predicting y'all are about to get hit by a "viral blizzard:"

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/a-covid-19-viral-blizzard-is-about-to-hit-the-u-s-expert-says-with-millions-to-be-infected-soon-1.5711480

as always, the big question is how the vaxxed people do.

so far it's looking like vaxxed people just aren't getting very sick.

and I think very few people will go out of their way to protect unvaxxed people, at this point.

Many of those people are going to die.

But I suppose that's still a lot of millions of Americans.

If I were a health care worker who had to deak with unvaxxed covid victims I'd be extraordinarily angry.

Unfortunately the vaccines come with consequences. My brother became ill after the second Moderna jab, died in his home alone. The coroner said he died of heart disease. No consideration at all for correlation to the most significant event prior to his death. My brother was days away from his 75th birthday. I am not saying he didn’t have his own health issues, but not overweight, and healthier than most his age. Moderna side effects include myocarditis.

very sorry for your loss Igy

Sorry, Igy, but everyone who had the vaccine is going to die. That does not mean the vaccine is responsible. Leave medicine to those who have studied it.

Prof. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

go ahead and laugh but the FTSE is now down 1.5% from its 30-day high.

When I think of "things in the world that actually matter," ratchet @ss exchanges in countries that haven't been relevant in 60 years doesn't usually come to mind. But it's still early in the day

From the end of the Napoleonic Wars to the eve of WWI. Incidentally, re:

From 1881 to 1914 averaged 249% above trend, 1909 was 325%!

la gente esta muy loca wrote:... 1909 was 325%!

Come again?

I don't see what you are getting at. Explanation for the dummies among us?

J. Hardy wrote:

Sorry, Igy, but everyone who had the vaccine is going to die. That does not mean the vaccine is responsible. Leave medicine to those who have studied it.

No real beef with that, but there are larger health and societal issues in this country. Covid has exposed the fragility and sickness of American society. That cannot be cured by vaccines or overly generous government handouts.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

J. Hardy wrote:

Sorry, Igy, but everyone who had the vaccine is going to die. That does not mean the vaccine is responsible. Leave medicine to those who have studied it.

No real beef with that, but there are larger health and societal issues in this country. Covid has exposed the fragility and sickness of American society. That cannot be cured by vaccines or overly generous government handouts.

Igy, while my instinct is to challenge some of your thoughts here, I'm totally reluctant to weigh into this discussion given the context around your brother's passing (may he rest in peace). Can we let this particularly argument fade away in this thread and let your brother rest peacefully? It's one thing talking about these things philosophically and hypothetically (totally cool with that happening), and a whole different thing when we are talking about a specific person, especially a loved one.

Up to you, of course, as he is your brother.

There is a process for reporting adverse reactions to the vaccine called VAERS. My nephew has filed on behalf of my brother. Other than that I have no other comment, but I thank you for the condolences.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

la gente esta muy loca wrote:... 1909 was 325%!

Come again?

I don't see what you are getting at. Explanation for the dummies among us?

Using the same methodology as Advisor Perspectives, the UK CPI Adjusted Trend for 1909 was 852.40; actual price was 3622.90. (Using data from 1700-2016.) If we use data from 1700 to 1909; the trend is now 1244.97 so the Index is only 191% above trend. The South Sea Bubble ( 1720 ) goes from 253% above trend in the first set to 318% above trend for the 1700-1909 data set. If you know how to use excel just download the data from the FRED chart. There is also a reason why AP is using S&P 500 data ( from Robert Shiller ) and not the NASDAQ.

agip wrote:

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

An "expert" is predicting y'all are about to get hit by a "viral blizzard:"

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/a-covid-19-viral-blizzard-is-about-to-hit-the-u-s-expert-says-with-millions-to-be-infected-soon-1.5711480

as always, the big question is how the vaxxed people do.

so far it's looking like vaxxed people just aren't getting very sick.

and I think very few people will go out of their way to protect unvaxxed people, at this point.

Many of those people are going to die.

But I suppose that's still a lot of millions of Americans.

If I were a health care worker who had to deak with unvaxxed covid victims I'd be extraordinarily angry.

I have been reading a fair amount about this latest outbreak, and can't delve into the discussion right now as much as I would like to, but the gist is this: everyone needs to get vaccinated, and the vaccinated need to get the booster,.

This has consequences not just for the individual, but for the nation and the world.

We have the resources and tools to control this and the US in particular has done an abysmal job up to now.

We need to do better,.

Get vaccinated. And if vaccinated, get the booster

la gente esta muy loca wrote:... If you know how to use excel ...

Ha ha!

I can make excel sing and dance, even moon walk. :-) My younger colleagues make fun of me though; it's like I'm still using COBOL or something so far as they're concerned.

Doh, I FOMO'd into SARK this morning and then ARKK decided to finish +5.8% today. Probably bought more than I should have but may have to average down.

Sold most of SARK yesterday. Bought some back down 4%. I’ll stick with it if there is a fork in the Santa Rally.

Does anyone here hold TD bank?

Bought in at $83 and have a nice profit..

wondering if I should continue to hold or sell.

Took a big drop today after yesterdays record high.

Here's a nice Racketonian piece from Cullen Roche, from May 2020, when deaths were coming off their spring peak and the stock market was soaring, up 20-30% and people were perplexed.

He got it right, mostly - that when the gummint spends multiple trillions of dollars, most of those dollars will find their way to corporate coffers, and that explains the stock market rise. And yes, as Roche guessed, we did get record profitability.

I like this one because it came during massive confusion, made a simple thesis, dismissed conspiracy talk of the Fed PPT buying calls... and that thesis has been proven correct.

//

So here’s what the stock market is now grappling with – we have the potential for an unprecedented slowdown in the economy. Investment will collapse. Saving will spike. Dividends and buybacks will fall. But then you have a colossal spending package from the government sector. So it’s not remotely surprising to me that the stock market has recovered because it’s now trying to guess when those other variables recover. And if they do recover then there’s a very real chance you’re going to see record profits in 2021 and 2022.

So, this isn’t some Federal Reserve conspiracy theory. This isn’t about the stock market being disconnected from reality. This isn’t the stock market enjoying death and job losses. This is mostly about an unprecedented government stimulus that is going to households and businesses and, let’s be frank, will NOT be saved by households because American households don’t save. And when that household saving number falls, which it will, the money flows right into the coffers of corporate America. The stock market isn’t dumb. It knows this. And it’s pricing that potential outcome in as we speak.

https://www.pragcap.com/what-the-hell-is-the-stock-market-doing/

3 months total return

TSLA +23

Energy +12

Materials +8

Tech +8

Utils +6

REITS +6

US Div Strategy +6

Cons Staples +6

SP500 +5

Value +5

SP500 +5

Healthcare +4

Financials +3

Cons Disc +2

Gold +2

Industrials +2

TIPS +1

Clean energy 0

Global 60/40 0

Int Treas -1

Corp bonds -1

Junk -1

Sm Cap -2

Vang momo -2

Hussman -2

EM ex china -2

BTC -3

Non-US developed -3

EM -4

Retail -7

China -8

Comms sector -8

ARKK -20

GME -24

Weed: -24

PTON -59

So what's the pattern?

Clearly the meme stock fad has been unwinding. That's easy.

Emerging mkts are true s//tholes for capital

Is there a strong inflation trade going? energy, reits, materials all strong. TIPS beating straight treasuries.

Weak in the US...retail,comms.

When will the rest of the developed world catch up? Has to happen at some point. Or the US falls back, either one.

I like the strength of value/dividend funds. I've been moving money over from basic big cap funds to dividend funds. I figure the market is likely to stall, so might as well get paid. And avoid the tyranny of the big 5 tech companies.

The stock market knows nothing. That view totally neglects any of the negative consequences of $Trillions of reckless policies, as if it has benign consequences.