Here's the Fed's economic forecast from June 2020, early days in the pandemic.
They were of course far too pessimistic. Not even the wizards at the Fed can predict much of anything.
And their job is to move interest rates NOW for what will happen in 18 months.
I'm thinking probably the Fed Board should be turned into an algorithm instead of giving such power to human beings.
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In their first economic projections this year, Fed officials indicated that they expect the unemployment rate to end 2020 at 9.3 percent and remain elevated for some time, coming in at 5.5 percent in 2022. That would be well above the level they expect to prevail over the longer run in a healthy economy and far above the historically low jobless rates that preceded the virus.
”Many millions have lost their jobs,” Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference following the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, adding the extent of the downturn and pace of the recovery remain “extraordinarily uncertain.”
Mr. Powell said the Fed will do “whatever we can, and for as long as it takes” to support the recovery and “limit lasting damage” to the economy.
That includes keeping rates near rock-bottom for the foreseeable future, Mr. Powell said, noting there would likely be no rate increase through at least 2022.
“We do think that this is going to take some time — I think most forecasters believe that,” Mr. Powell said.
The Fed is projecting a particularly sharp economic hit in 2020, with officials expecting output to contract by 6.5 percent at the end of this year compared to the final quarter of 2019, before rebounding by 5 percent in 2021.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/business/economy/federal-reserve-economy-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article