Down goes the Dow

Maser wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good for you.

Keep in mind, the latest CNBC news is Kim Kardashian passed the first year law school exam (didn’t know there was one).

I have been a licensed attorney for 20+ years, and have no idea what that means.

Never heard my daughter mention it when in school. I read further and it took Kim four times to pass this test. Of course our Vice President didn’t pass the Bar the first time. Racist and misogynistic questions I suppose.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maser wrote:

I have been a licensed attorney for 20+ years, and have no idea what that means.

Never heard my daughter mention it when in school. I read further and it took Kim four times to pass this test. Of course our Vice President didn’t pass the Bar the first time. Racist and misogynistic questions I suppose.

My guess is you still haven’t passed it.

No I haven’t, but my daughter is a partner in Idaho’s largest legal firm, and argued several cases before the Idaho Supreme Court.

She obviously inherited her mother’s intellect.

No doubt. 😹

Bipolar Bob wrote:

Seattle Prattle - I'm curious why AMZN makes you nervous?

You know, I tend towards momentum plays and AMZN has caught me by surprise in that its stock price is fairly flat YTD.

But looking beneath the hood, some exciting things already emerging as new revenue streams.

One is Amazon Care, which provides streamlined healthcare options directly to employers or individuals. It was rolled out earlier this year. Link below.

Another would be Prescription Drug service, called Amazon Pharmacy. which rolled out over a year ago. Link below.

And then the MGM movie studio acquisition, which i would guess just expands their online video and streaming initiatives.

The health care and pharmacy plays could be incredibly big. The cost of healthcare in this country is through the roof. The upside here should not be underestimated.

On the con side, it concerns me that we don't hear more about these services. How are they working, and how well are they being adopted? Seriously, the fact that they are so unknown is not a strong harbinger of great things to come....

I don't know. Feeling better about holding the stock in a major way, and not going to sell anymore given these hopes. But i did sell about 4% of my holding almost 4 months ago. I probably would have sold more but I tend to drag my feet badly on the sell side.

Other viewpoints welcome.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Current cherry picked data:

AAPL 0.10%

SARK 2.46%

😷

SARK is so fun. I'm going to double down on the next big green ARKK day, maybe the Santa Claus rally will happen.

Will keep DCAing VTI for the next month or two until all my cash is gone.

Here's another missed prediction by permabear Stephen Roach. That guy.

In March 2021 he predicted the American consumer was tapped out and would soon spend less, which would restrict inflation.

No and no. High spending has continued and high inflation has ensued.

Ah economics. One of the only fields you can be so wrong so often but keep your job as long as you are good at pitching and are famous. It's more show business than anything else. Get a headline on CNBC and you get to keep your job.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/significant-scarring-will-limit-pent-up-consumer-demand-stephen-roach.html

I wouldn’t label the guy who called China’s economic miracle decades ago a perma bear. Not sure where you got that idea.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I wouldn’t label the guy who called China’s economic miracle decades ago a perma bear. Not sure where you got that idea.

ok, permabear on the US anyway.

Just did some scanning and it looks like he was bullish on the US once - in 2006.

Not a bad call, depending if he cancelled it for 2008 of course.

2006: +16%

2007: +5%

2008: -37%

But I didn't make a close study.

Anyway, super high PPI numbers but the odds of a Fed move are still basically zero until May.

10% econ growth, very high inflation, 4.2% unemployment, government spending strong...and the Fed is in ultra-stimulation mode.

That...just...sounds..wrong to me.

Although the bond market is fine, agreeing with the Fed that the inflation and growth surge will slow down quickly.

So maybe the Fed will be proven correct and we'll get all this amazing growth with no inflationary cost.

Hmm.

would be interesting of the bond market woke up one Tuesday and figured 3% is a more realistic interest rate for US 10 yrs.

Would that force the Fed into quick rate rises? Probably.

My bet is that Powell is looking at the yield on the 10 year and saying that the market is smarter than Powell, and the market is saying all this will end in mid-2022 so the Fed can follow the markets.

So if the markets change their minds...will the Fed follow suit?

agip,

OK. That is fair.

On inflation, I see it clearly at the store. I do about a quarter to a half of the grocery shopping. Most notable are increases in beef and fish. Smaller packaging in staples and paper products for same price. Housing remains high, where pricing forces lower paid workers into multi unit apartment complexes. Utility bills a higher across the board. Fuel down from six months ago, but higher year over year. I would say in the Boise area the true inflation, factoring in housing, is double the stated 6%. I get the arguments on both sides, but see little reason the trend moderates much.

A little bit of history here, Dean Witter and Morgan Stanley merged when I was back in New York training for three weeks in January/February of 1997. Soon after I returned home we had weekly Monday briefings via the squawk box by the panel of Stephen Roach, Barton Biggs, and Byron Wien. The arguments between them were classic, and quite a treat. There was no grand company market view, rather opinions presented, with opposing views welcomed, but debated. You get less of that today, unfortunately.

Igy

No worries, be happy. No bad days. 🌴 🏝

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGldW4aXEAQkWje?format=jpg&name=large

Ghost of Igloi wrote:No worries, be happy. No bad days. 🌴 🏝

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGldW4aXEAQkWje?format=jpg&name=large

Igy,

that chart is similar to the one I produced for the group back in March, 2018, except I started my regression in 1949 instead of the late 1800s. That simple choice makes a huge difference as to how "overvalued" the market currently looks. My best fit projects to about 3400 right now, which puts the market at about 36% over expected value, rather than the 186% your chart shows.

If you took a shorter time horizon (e.g., last 20, 30 or even 40 years) you'd get completely different best fits and estimates of where the market ought to be. So I would take that chart with a handful of salt...

This makes me even more bullish for SARK. Cathie and her analysts are cuckoo. 40% return per year? 5 year plan innovation innovation innovation.

https://youtu.be/hnWbD7hLAOA

https://youtu.be/OCJKpRJnl8E

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:No worries, be happy. No bad days. 🌴 🏝

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGldW4aXEAQkWje?format=jpg&name=large

Igy,

that chart is similar to the one I produced for the group back in March, 2018, except I started my regression in 1949 instead of the late 1800s. That simple choice makes a huge difference as to how "overvalued" the market currently looks. My best fit projects to about 3400 right now, which puts the market at about 36% over expected value, rather than the 186% your chart shows.

If you took a shorter time horizon (e.g., last 20, 30 or even 40 years) you'd get completely different best fits and estimates of where the market ought to be. So I would take that chart with a handful of salt...

OK. Back testing your model’s accuracy, what would your model have predicted March 2000 and October 2007?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:...would your model have predicted March 2000 and October 2007?

What do you mean by "predicted?" Maybe explain what you mean (with some precision, to avoid misunderstanding) with reference to the chart you've shared, and then I can compare for you.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:...would your model have predicted March 2000 and October 2007?

What do you mean by "predicted?" Maybe explain what you mean (with some precision, to avoid misunderstanding) with reference to the chart you've shared, and then I can compare for you.

“My best fit projects to about 3400 right now, which puts the market at about 36% over expected value, rather than the 186% your chart shows.”

So, comparison as above, month endings of March 2000 and October 2007. Peaks of the Tech and Housing Bubbles, and compare to actual declines of 54% and 59%, peak to trough of each cycle.

Igy, I have no idea what you are asking. Are you asking me to compare the actual index values at the peaks and troughs? What does that have to do with a prediction? No matter how you slice it, the market was up (or down) at those points. What's that got to do with the best fit curve you shared (or the one I generated and previously shared)?

(Sorry, but: It's not obvious to me you understand how to make a forecast or prediction, from available data or otherwise.)