https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%282%29_72.png?itok=F7PLz3EXEarnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2021 (with 3 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 3 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 3 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%282%29_72.png?itok=F7PLz3EXEarnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2021 (with 3 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 3 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 3 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
What does the NASDAQ have to do with the S&P 500?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGRqSVZXoAM3AA2?format=png&name=900x900
Why are you showing us this moron?
Here's a very accurate set of predictions from Jeremy Siegel. From November 2020.
Nailed the bull market continuing:
When we spoke a year ago, the S&P was at 3,119. This morning it was at 3,562. That's a gain of 14.2%. Last year you said the market was fairly valued; despite that it went up nicely. What are you seeing in the market’s valuation?
We have to marvel at how well the market’s done despite the recession and COVID crisis. I appeared on the networks in June to say that the Fed’s huge provision of liquidity, supported by the government's CARES Act, would be very positive for the equity market. I looked at the growth of the money supply and I said, “This liquidity is going to go first into assets and then, in 2021, when the vaccine comes, into the economy.” We know that stocks are the longest-lived assets – and they are anticipating a great 2021. I predict the bull market will continue next year. Stocks are not overpriced.
Nailed interest rates rising but not too much. His prediction for the 10 year was spot-on:
I see rising long-term bond rates because of my inflation forecast. I expect interest rates to go back to 1.75% at least by the end of next year and reach the 2% range by 2022.
Almost nailed inflation but was a bit low on that. And he completely missed unemployment - he predicted high unemployment when we've had the opposite But correct on Fed staying ultra-loose:
But we will see much more significant inflation for the next few years than we have seen over the last two decades. I'm talking about 3%, 4% or 5% inflation each year – inflation that is well above the Fed's target of 2%. This is because since the Pandemic last March, we have seen the largest increase in the money supply since World War II.
The Fed will be very slow to clamp down on this inflation, because unemployment is going to stay relatively high. A lot of firms are not going to hire back the workers they let go. They've learned to live without them. These newly-unemployed need to be retrained. The Fed will keep the short rate extremely low for a long time to keep demand high. However, interest rates and inflation will rise. We're not going to have double-digit or even high single-digit inflation. But I would not be surprised to see 3% to 5% inflation over the next several years.
He thinks, like I do, that the Fed does not determine longer term interest rates:
As time goes on, I'm have become even more convinced that low rates are not caused by central banks keeping the short rate very low. There are very strong real economic forces that are keeping record low rates, and I noted these last year. Demographics, aging populations, longer life expectancy, more saving, high risk aversion are among those factors that drive investors to bonds. Also, bonds have become the hedge asset of choice for short-term managers to cushion equity risk. Treasury securities usually jump in price when equities fall. All these factors are going to be with us for a long time.
this is it wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGRqSVZXoAM3AA2?format=png&name=900x900Why are you showing us this moron?
Haven’t you noticed? Igy follows all the morons.
wondering wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%282%29_72.png?itok=F7PLz3EXWhat does the NASDAQ have to do with the S&P 500?
Nothing. At least rational people believe that.
agip wrote:
Here's a very accurate set of predictions from Jeremy Siegel. From November 2020.
Nailed the bull market continuing:
When we spoke a year ago, the S&P was at 3,119. This morning it was at 3,562. That's a gain of 14.2%. Last year you said the market was fairly valued; despite that it went up nicely. What are you seeing in the market’s valuation?
We have to marvel at how well the market’s done despite the recession and COVID crisis. I appeared on the networks in June to say that the Fed’s huge provision of liquidity, supported by the government's CARES Act, would be very positive for the equity market. I looked at the growth of the money supply and I said, “This liquidity is going to go first into assets and then, in 2021, when the vaccine comes, into the economy.” We know that stocks are the longest-lived assets – and they are anticipating a great 2021. I predict the bull market will continue next year. Stocks are not overpriced.
Nailed interest rates rising but not too much. His prediction for the 10 year was spot-on:
I see rising long-term bond rates because of my inflation forecast. I expect interest rates to go back to 1.75% at least by the end of next year and reach the 2% range by 2022.
Almost nailed inflation but was a bit low on that. And he completely missed unemployment - he predicted high unemployment when we've had the opposite But correct on Fed staying ultra-loose:
But we will see much more significant inflation for the next few years than we have seen over the last two decades. I'm talking about 3%, 4% or 5% inflation each year – inflation that is well above the Fed's target of 2%. This is because since the Pandemic last March, we have seen the largest increase in the money supply since World War II.
The Fed will be very slow to clamp down on this inflation, because unemployment is going to stay relatively high. A lot of firms are not going to hire back the workers they let go. They've learned to live without them. These newly-unemployed need to be retrained. The Fed will keep the short rate extremely low for a long time to keep demand high. However, interest rates and inflation will rise. We're not going to have double-digit or even high single-digit inflation. But I would not be surprised to see 3% to 5% inflation over the next several years.
He thinks, like I do, that the Fed does not determine longer term interest rates:
As time goes on, I'm have become even more convinced that low rates are not caused by central banks keeping the short rate very low. There are very strong real economic forces that are keeping record low rates, and I noted these last year. Demographics, aging populations, longer life expectancy, more saving, high risk aversion are among those factors that drive investors to bonds. Also, bonds have become the hedge asset of choice for short-term managers to cushion equity risk. Treasury securities usually jump in price when equities fall. All these factors are going to be with us for a long time.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/11/23/jeremy-siegel-2021-will-be-a-bull-market-for-stocks?bt_ee=5HAFOhALhslG09SrhGYOiLo3ejVMtXxOlvQKKGa8yvT5%2FSg97gW7JMAfxZ6TlowM&bt_ts=1606216020940
None of that stuff is really radical though. Looks like he basically took inventory of all the goings on in the world and the monetary situation and said "we'll probably see more of what we're seeing now."
It's funny because everyone is freaking out over inflation when pretty much every mainstream economist has been saying it's coming down the pipeline for awhile now.
Been away from this thread for almost a year now... What is everyone thinking about market outlook right now over the next 1-2 years? Seems bubbly to me, but with inflation so high, I'm reluctant to hold cash. Trying to diversify a little with crypto, but I don't feel comfortable putting more than about 5% in it due to its lack of intrinsic value and uncertainty. Then you have Ray Dalio talking about a Changing World Order and collapse of America and the USD, a giant debt crisis, etc. How the heck does anyone navigate all this effectively?
AAPL and MSFT always go up. Looks like everyone sold high risk stocks and put it into these two yesterday. AMZN and GOOG didn't do well, they're too expensive. People would rather own 1 AAPL or MSFT vs 0.1 AMZN or GOOG.
investing noob wrote:
AAPL and MSFT always go up. Looks like everyone sold high risk stocks and put it into these two yesterday. AMZN and GOOG didn't do well, they're too expensive. People would rather own 1 AAPL or MSFT vs 0.1 AMZN or GOOG.
Why not hold all 4?
I just did a little check on their relative performance, and the concept of diversification seems applicable here.
Each had a particularly good stretch, and any one beats out the others if you pick the right timespan. Apple has really shot up in the last month. Amazon had its big run last year. Google had a great start to this year. Microsoft seems like a solid performer throughout, with some of the highest returns no matter what timespan is chosen.
Amazon is the only one that gives me cause for concern, but I'm holding.
seattle prattle wrote:
investing noob wrote:
AAPL and MSFT always go up. Looks like everyone sold high risk stocks and put it into these two yesterday. AMZN and GOOG didn't do well, they're too expensive. People would rather own 1 AAPL or MSFT vs 0.1 AMZN or GOOG.
Why not hold all 4?
I just did a little check on their relative performance, and the concept of diversification seems applicable here.
Each had a particularly good stretch, and any one beats out the others if you pick the right timespan. Apple has really shot up in the last month. Amazon had its big run last year. Google had a great start to this year. Microsoft seems like a solid performer throughout, with some of the highest returns no matter what timespan is chosen.
Amazon is the only one that gives me cause for concern, but I'm holding.
Hmm you are right. Might as well hold all of M A G A stocks.
Certainly the NASDAQ performance is dependent on the noted stocks.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGVLtW1XEAkDU7C?format=png&name=large
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Certainly the NASDAQ performance is dependent on the noted stocks.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGVLtW1XEAkDU7C?format=png&name=large
What is $NAAD ?
Why is it pertinent to track it against the value of the Nasdaq index?
More index issues declining than advancing. Apple first crossed $1 Trillion in market cap August 2, 2018. Other stocks mega cap growth stocks have had similar advances while ARKK story stocks down 20-60%. I suppose one can extrapolate that is a good thing.
Nasdaq cumulative advance/decline. In my view shows weakening commitment to the market generally. Possibly big money holding up market with mega caps, allowing retail to book losses in IPOs, SPACs, meme stocks, and ARKK stocks. You also will see this also in rotation in and out of value/growth. Like a house with a poor foundation, or one built on unstable ground. Looks good from far, but perhaps far from good.
Okay, and thank you for that.
But while it does show an increase in declining issues as compared to advancing issues, across the cumulative index, Nasdaq in this case, it is interesting to note that the same phenomenon is not happening in the other major indices - the DJI and SPX, as evidenced by their respective graphs below:
https://www.marketinout.com/chart/market.php?breadth=advance-decline-line
But if you look at the first two graphs shown in the link, together with their redline advancers/decliners, you will see that those indices are not experiencing the same thing.
In other words, if this is such a concern, why aren't the other indices showing the same phenomenon?
It is noteworthy that the Russel small cap indices are showing a hybrid of the two, not as steep as Nasdaq, but not as slight a difference as the DJI and SPX.
Good points.
Prof. Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Here's a very accurate set of predictions from Jeremy Siegel. From November 2020.
Nailed the bull market continuing:
When we spoke a year ago, the S&P was at 3,119. This morning it was at 3,562. That's a gain of 14.2%. Last year you said the market was fairly valued; despite that it went up nicely. What are you seeing in the market’s valuation?
We have to marvel at how well the market’s done despite the recession and COVID crisis. I appeared on the networks in June to say that the Fed’s huge provision of liquidity, supported by the government's CARES Act, would be very positive for the equity market. I looked at the growth of the money supply and I said, “This liquidity is going to go first into assets and then, in 2021, when the vaccine comes, into the economy.” We know that stocks are the longest-lived assets – and they are anticipating a great 2021. I predict the bull market will continue next year. Stocks are not overpriced.
Nailed interest rates rising but not too much. His prediction for the 10 year was spot-on:
I see rising long-term bond rates because of my inflation forecast. I expect interest rates to go back to 1.75% at least by the end of next year and reach the 2% range by 2022.
Almost nailed inflation but was a bit low on that. And he completely missed unemployment - he predicted high unemployment when we've had the opposite But correct on Fed staying ultra-loose:
But we will see much more significant inflation for the next few years than we have seen over the last two decades. I'm talking about 3%, 4% or 5% inflation each year – inflation that is well above the Fed's target of 2%. This is because since the Pandemic last March, we have seen the largest increase in the money supply since World War II.
The Fed will be very slow to clamp down on this inflation, because unemployment is going to stay relatively high. A lot of firms are not going to hire back the workers they let go. They've learned to live without them. These newly-unemployed need to be retrained. The Fed will keep the short rate extremely low for a long time to keep demand high. However, interest rates and inflation will rise. We're not going to have double-digit or even high single-digit inflation. But I would not be surprised to see 3% to 5% inflation over the next several years.
He thinks, like I do, that the Fed does not determine longer term interest rates:
As time goes on, I'm have become even more convinced that low rates are not caused by central banks keeping the short rate very low. There are very strong real economic forces that are keeping record low rates, and I noted these last year. Demographics, aging populations, longer life expectancy, more saving, high risk aversion are among those factors that drive investors to bonds. Also, bonds have become the hedge asset of choice for short-term managers to cushion equity risk. Treasury securities usually jump in price when equities fall. All these factors are going to be with us for a long time.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/11/23/jeremy-siegel-2021-will-be-a-bull-market-for-stocks?bt_ee=5HAFOhALhslG09SrhGYOiLo3ejVMtXxOlvQKKGa8yvT5%2FSg97gW7JMAfxZ6TlowM&bt_ts=1606216020940None of that stuff is really radical though. Looks like he basically took inventory of all the goings on in the world and the monetary situation and said "we'll probably see more of what we're seeing now."
It's funny because everyone is freaking out over inflation when pretty much every mainstream economist has been saying it's coming down the pipeline for awhile now.
If a major guy puts out a prediction that turns out mostly quite correct, I'm impressed. It's not fair to say predictions of market changes are more valuable than predictions of market continuity.
And anyway, he did predict higher inflation when I don't think it was anywhere on the viewing screens of most people.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Good points.
Look at the chart of the Russel micro stock index, and you see some real pain. Nothing propping that sector up.
What the hell?
It looks like it was trading sideways for most of the year, took a big dip with the Omicron emergence, and hasn't fully recovered. Maybe traders still feel we are not out of the woods yet, in that regard.
https://www.marketinout.com/chart/servlet.php?symbol=russellmicro.i&n=1&indicator=96&ap=1