“Countless” time trials “perfectly” set up. Hyperbole much? She *did* get many PBs in those years. But how many races was she in where she had the opportunity to follow someone on literal WR pace? That rare chance, combined with ideal conditions in terms of track/weather (evidenced by the outstanding performances across the meet), together with her peaking for perhaps the most importance majors of her career - easily accounts for a breakthrough, in my view. The ability of the mind to push the body to new physical limits is remarkable in many domains, in and out of athletics.
I can answer your question. Hull had 3 such races last year alone.
June 2, 2023 in Florence - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the 1500m world record. Kipyegon ran 3:49.11 and Hull ran 3:57.29.
July 21, 2023 in Monaco - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the mile world record. Kipyegon ran 4:07.64 and Hull ran 4:15.34.
September 16, 2023 in Eugene - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon ran one of the fastest times ever in the 1500. Kipyegon ran 3:50.72 and Hull ran 3:57.57.
And that's just last year. That doesn't include:
the 2022 world championships in which Kipyegon ran 3:52.96 to Hull's 4:01.82
the 2022 Diamond League meet in Monaco in which Kipyegon ran 3:50.37 to Hull's 4:01.73
the 2022 Pre Classic at which Kipyegon ran 3:52.59 to Hull's 3:59.31.
That's half a dozen opportunities over the previous two years that Hull had to run a blazing fast time right behind Kipyegon. In all those races, the gap between Kipyegon and Hull was in the range of ~7 to 11 seconds. Last weekend, the gap was less than 2 seconds.
So her defenders will say that shows she wasn't in the "right" race till the last one.
I think anyone who doesn't understand your POV on this is just willfully naive or in the dark! There were some seriously staggering performances from the meets. Here's the ones I'd ID. I might've missed some: Hull- well-covered here, I don't need to add anything
Sedjati- This guy is a signature talent and has been since his emergence in 2022. The backstory before 2021 is vague at best — soccer player? military? talent recognized and running sub-1:45 in less than a year? Anyhow, the performance level, associations and background raise questions not the progression as much. Tual- the rationale here HAS to be that Tual has been training at 80-85% the last few years and skating on immense talent. I think most would acknowledge his PB was due for some revision as most guys who make 2 global finals are 1:43-mid to high type guys. This 1:41 level is completely unexpected and I'd compare this to Hull for now as he's been in some fast races and hasn't shown near this level until 2024. Kemei Cheminingwa - This guy came out of nowhere, but as I've described in other threads, there are Kenyans who are big talents who simply need the opportunity to get to Europe. Last year, he was primed for a breakout as anyone who goes out in 1:16 leading Kinyamal and Wanyonyi and holds on to a 1:46.2 has clearly got some more in the tank. Our info on what his 2019-2022 were like is pretty limited. We know he joined Moraa's group in 2023 I believe and that the transition wasn't seamless, and his 800m racecraft needed a lot of work. Crestan- Here we have an athlete with a limited experience in being in super-fast races, and some injuries clearly (missed 2023 worlds), if you look at his early-career PBs you see strong promise — 47.0/1:46/3:46 at age 19 including a World Junior Bronze. Also the performance level here is not at the level of the first three.
Bell- The benefit of a Western athlete is we have a lot of info on here. This is a new-wave cross training success story from an athlete who could not stay healthy and was in and out of the sport. Demonstrated big-time talent early.
You don't include Saint Nikki trials win in that list? 5+ second improvement in late 20s after years of high level training?
Tbf, that trials race was an improvement from a 4:16 mile (~3:57) to a 3:55 1500...hardly 5+ seconds. To put it another way, Nikki and Jessica are nearly the same age (29 vs 27), and in 2019 both had run 4:01 for 1500 (in the same race, no less). Since then, Nikki has had a consistent improvement curve that some find suspicious (it really isn't), and now has a PB of 3:55. Jessica, on the other hand, had a consistent improvement curve for 4 years resulting in a PB of 3:57, and then in the 5th year dropped more time than the last 4 combined to catapult ahead by a full 5 seconds, and is now a legitimate all-time great of the event. Now THAT is suspicious.
This thread is now 26 pages long. It has been an eye opening discussion. What happened to the threads questioning Nikki Hiltz progression? Were they deleted?
Anyone have any objective good info on her father's coaching pedigree and experience? Given that she was already fantastically good at consistent 3.57 to 3.59 and with years of experience already, anyone who can enable this immense breakthrough must be quite a coaching wizard. This reads a little more cynical than is intended and I literally know zero about her dad but the query about his coaching input in her new environment is genuine.
Anyone with any info or views on this?Seems rather odd that in a 26 page thread on the matter under discussion not one poster, other than this one, has asked?
There has got to be something wrong with timing or the track. I come from a couple other sports, but both would red flag these results and check absolutely everything. Unless somehow the wind swirls counter-clockwise around the stadium.
Unless somehow the wind swirls counter-clockwise around the stadium.
This thought should not be immediately dismissed.
The stadium has an unusual design. Looks like large openings under the canopies on three sides but not on the fourth side.
We need a good fluid mechanics engineer to take a look at the stadium design along with the wind direction during the meet. Probably not many such engineers in LRC but here's hoping.
It’s also not satisfactory to chalk up Hull’s improvement to being in a fast race with a fast runner on a fast track in good weather. As I demonstrated, this is far from the first time she’s had such an opportunity. If there’s any oversimplification, it’s attributing her 3:50 merely to the conditions of the race. There has to be a lot more to it than that.
"this is far from the first time she’s had such an opportunity" - what about the others? How do you explain so many others in the race posting massive PBs?
Looking at the others in that race who set PBs doesn't help Hull the way you think it does:
Laura Muir and Linden Hall - Like Hull, they've been on the elite pro circuit with lots of opportunities to run in fast races the past several years. Yet unlike Hull, they only set marginal PBs of less than a second in Paris. Why were their PBs so slight compared to Hull's?
Georgia Bell - highly unusual progression/career with no 1500 results for 2018-2020 listed in World Athletics profile and no high level racing in 2021 or 2022; not sure how that helps Hull's case given that their careers are not at all alike
Susan Ejore - her 3:57 is in line with her other performances this year, including a 3:58 in May; finished 3rd at the Kenyan Olympic Trials, running 4:00 at high altitude in Nairobi; someone like that should be able to run 3:57 with good conditions.
Sarah Healy - her improvement from 3:59 to 3:57 is reasonable for someone who is only 23; certainly hasn't had all the opportunities the past several years to run in the fast races that Hull has had
Agathe Guillemot - eye-catching improvement from 4:12 in 2022 to 4:03 last year to 3:58 this year, but like Healy, she's still on the younger side (today is her 25th birthday) and she hasn't had all the opportunities to run in the fast races that Hull has had the past several years
Katie Snowden and Ciara Mageean - neither ran a PB
Nigist Getachew - only 22, no 1500 results listed before this year in her World Athletics profile, only finished two 1500 races this year before last weekend, winning both; very difficult to establish a baseline with someone like that, but her 3:58.98 in Paris is in line with the the four sub-2:00 800 races she's run earlier this year.
Esther Guerrero - longtime runner age 34 who ran less than a half-second than she did last year
Based on those contexts, I don't see how any one of those runners' performances help make the case that there just must have been something magical in the air in Paris last weekend to explain how Hull ran at a level that is unlike anything she's done before in her established career.
I reiterate and adjust slightly based on one of the other responses I got: If there’s any oversimplification, it’s attributing her 3:50 merely (or mainly) to the conditions of the race. There has to be a lot more to it than that.
She improved - it happens. And almost everyone else in that race also improved, some by a similar amount. Where's the scrutiny on them?
Whataboutism doesn't weaken the case against her. She won't be the only doped athlete in that race.
You write she is a doped athlete while you CAN'T know this, impossible for you to know it. You have every right to suspect her but not that it's a fact that she is doped. Shame on you.
She improved - it happens. And almost everyone else in that race also improved, some by a similar amount. Where's the scrutiny on them?
This is the moment when I realized engaging with you is a waste of time.
"everyone else in that race also improved" - wow, what a f-ing genius take - that's how you explain it? You think the scrutiny should be the same for all of these athletes even though each of them have a unique profile, history and set of circumstances in the sport?
The fact that you are even entertaining that a 4 second PR at the performance level of 4.02 down to 3.58 is even remotely equivalent to a 5 second PR at the performance level of 3.55 down to 3.50 (Guillemot) quite simply shows me you don't have the knowledge or understanding of the event and even running performance to be having a discussion with even 95% of people on this thread.
So that's where our time ends pal. I'm not wasting any more characters on you - go learn something about the sport before you start chirping you keyboard warrior weasel.
Tbf, that trials race was an improvement from a 4:16 mile (~3:57) to a 3:55 1500...hardly 5+ seconds. To put it another way, Nikki and Jessica are nearly the same age (29 vs 27), and in 2019 both had run 4:01 for 1500 (in the same race, no less). Since then, Nikki has had a consistent improvement curve that some find suspicious (it really isn't), and now has a PB of 3:55. Jessica, on the other hand, had a consistent improvement curve for 4 years resulting in a PB of 3:57, and then in the 5th year dropped more time than the last 4 combined to catapult ahead by a full 5 seconds, and is now a legitimate all-time great of the event. Now THAT is suspicious.
And not even accounting for Hiltz running Doha in old spikes while Hull presumably had superspikes. Nikki had the version of the Hull race at Trials (running on rail, paced really well) and improved a few seconds to a non-historic (global) level. If Nikki runs under 3:53 this season hell yeah doping will be brought up by the board.
Tbf, that trials race was an improvement from a 4:16 mile (~3:57) to a 3:55 1500...hardly 5+ seconds. To put it another way, Nikki and Jessica are nearly the same age (29 vs 27), and in 2019 both had run 4:01 for 1500 (in the same race, no less). Since then, Nikki has had a consistent improvement curve that some find suspicious (it really isn't), and now has a PB of 3:55. Jessica, on the other hand, had a consistent improvement curve for 4 years resulting in a PB of 3:57, and then in the 5th year dropped more time than the last 4 combined to catapult ahead by a full 5 seconds, and is now a legitimate all-time great of the event. Now THAT is suspicious.
And not even accounting for Hiltz running Doha in old spikes while Hull presumably had superspikes. Nikki had the version of the Hull race at Trials (running on rail, paced really well) and improved a few seconds to a non-historic (global) level. If Nikki runs under 3:53 this season hell yeah doping will be brought up by the board.
It has already been brought up on this board this past week. However, the two main threads were mysteriously deleted. I can understand why the mods need to remove the nastier personal posts, but there were several insightful analyses of her time progression based on facts. That's fair game.
Laura Muir posted a photo of her and Hull about to hug post-race. If Muir believes Jessica Hull is clean, the LRC community should lay off. She is the one with the actual stakes and the insider knowledge.
No. Shame on you. It is precisely your view that makes having a clean sport impossible, that no matter how suspicious, no matter how incredible the progression, no matter how suspicious the circumstances, that no matter how insane the time, that we must not question it until a grossly improbable failed test occurs.
Laura Muir posted a photo of her and Hull about to hug post-race. If Muir believes Jessica Hull is clean, the LRC community should lay off. She is the one with the actual stakes and the insider knowledge.
Women cant run 3.50 without a lot of chemical help,and they cant run 3.53 either. I doubt a clean woman can break 4 minutes.
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