Valby ran a great race but KT was just too strong. She just ate up that gap so quick, fun to watch. And the coverage was sooooooooooooo much better this year.
Masterful racing from Tuohy. Class from Chmiel. Markezich, Olemomoi & Tyynismaa delivered as expected. Scratching my head over Chelangat and McCabe.
I wonder if it was just an off day.
Many great performances, a few bad days...it happens. Harrington of UNC makes top 20. UNC 5th and UVA 9th is exceptional for both programs. Not the best day for ND but still 7th. As expected sub 20 (and sub old course record) for top 10 (actually top 19 - 19:50 for 10th).
If someone said that NCSt would lose Starliper and Shaw, Seymour would not be top five, and they would still win the team title with Mareno (AA) and Rauber as their 4 and 5, I would have bet against it. Huge congrats to them.
In hindsight the ACC championship turned out to be the most predictive race. How Katelyn hammered the final 2k at Stillwater is exactly how she hammered Panorama Farms. And Kelsey (podium!) and the ND runner were both top ten at nationals.
I think LACCTIC took a big L. In college, courses matter, tactics matter, who has proven that they can run in tough races on tough courses matters. The absence of sufficient data matters. Valby is an exceptional athlete. The way she runs attacking early is crazy. But not recognizing that she and Chelangat were running those super fast times on super fast courses skewed the rating big time and through off all the conversions efforts. Which is refreshing. Ratings are a tool, but no algorithm can just be plugged in as the end all.
Looks like Mercy collapsed right after the finish line. Given that she barely beat her old course record (under much worse conditions) I think it's safe to say that she had an off day for her capabilities.
If someone said that NCSt would lose Starliper and Shaw, Seymour would not be top five, and they would still win the team title with Mareno (AA) and Rauber as their 4 and 5, I would have bet against it. Huge congrats to them.
In hindsight the ACC championship turned out to be the most predictive race. How Katelyn hammered the final 2k at Stillwater is exactly how she hammered Panorama Farms. And Kelsey (podium!) and the ND runner were both top ten at nationals.
I think LACCTIC took a big L. In college, courses matter, tactics matter, who has proven that they can run in tough races on tough courses matters. The absence of sufficient data matters. Valby is an exceptional athlete. The way she runs attacking early is crazy. But not recognizing that she and Chelangat were running those super fast times on super fast courses skewed the rating big time and through off all the conversions efforts. Which is refreshing. Ratings are a tool, but no algorithm can just be plugged in as the end all.
Nationals is chaotic, but it still predicted the places of the top 10 teams pretty well.
LACCTiC's simulator gives a lot of information about how characteristics of a team's spread will be affected by a change in field. On the men's side it predicted things like Tulsa being over-ranked pretty well (predicted and finished 9th).
Most of the big swings look like they can be explained by good or bad days. LACCTiC is like a heat sheet. Nobody says the heat sheets "took a big L" when the top seed doesn't win.
I fully expect Tuohy and Valby to run 15:10 or faster this track season.
If someone said that NCSt would lose Starliper and Shaw, Seymour would not be top five, and they would still win the team title with Mareno (AA) and Rauber as their 4 and 5, I would have bet against it. Huge congrats to them.
In hindsight the ACC championship turned out to be the most predictive race. How Katelyn hammered the final 2k at Stillwater is exactly how she hammered Panorama Farms. And Kelsey (podium!) and the ND runner were both top ten at nationals.
I think LACCTIC took a big L. In college, courses matter, tactics matter, who has proven that they can run in tough races on tough courses matters. The absence of sufficient data matters. Valby is an exceptional athlete. The way she runs attacking early is crazy. But not recognizing that she and Chelangat were running those super fast times on super fast courses skewed the rating big time and through off all the conversions efforts. Which is refreshing. Ratings are a tool, but no algorithm can just be plugged in as the end all.
I don't want to sour on LACCTiC. But as I once posted I think it tends to overrate the performances on fast courses as the less superior athletes can handle those better. Kind of the opposite of speed ratings where it is hard for the top runners to get high speed ratings as the less superior athletes can stay closer. At least imho.
The top 9 W athletes from SEC ran about 58 seconds slower today than at SEC (10th did not run today I guess). For ACC that average was 27, and only 20 if you leave out the ND runners who I thought did not have their best today (but Markezich ran well and was 16 slower (Tuohy was 19)). Kind of speaks volumes about the courses.
I think LACCTIC took a big L. In college, courses matter, tactics matter, who has proven that they can run in tough races on tough courses matters. The absence of sufficient data matters. Valby is an exceptional athlete. The way she runs attacking early is crazy. But not recognizing that she and Chelangat were running those super fast times on super fast courses skewed the rating big time and through off all the conversions efforts. Which is refreshing. Ratings are a tool, but no algorithm can just be plugged in as the end all.
I don't want to sour on LACCTiC. But as I once posted I think it tends to overrate the performances on fast courses as the less superior athletes can handle those better. Kind of the opposite of speed ratings where it is hard for the top runners to get high speed ratings as the less superior athletes can stay closer. At least imho.
There are some interesting methods for the "netflix problem" (i.e. identifying types of viewers and types of TV shows) that I think could be applied here to pick up "types" of courses and runners. I'm not 100% sure theres enough data to get reliable results, but I'm planning on digging into it at some time.
In terms of top runners handling harder conditions better (or "worse" because the race was tactical up front), I do think there is enough data to do something about this.
Hits and misses for me (prediction is on p 1 of thread)
1 Tuohy - has shown strength on hills/easily separated from anyone she has raced - 1 2 Valby - tough call w times and wins - uncertain what will happen on hills if fast pace - 2 3 Chelangat - lost head to head w Valby - 16 (tough day for her) 4 Chmiel - has also separated from others she raced incl Markezich ACC/Nuttycombe - 3 5 McCabe - beat Roe, but in fairly slow kicker type race - 24 (tough day any interview?) 6 Roe - fairly slow races, more based on prior history - 13 7 Jepkuri - won the Weiss Crocket at OSU - past times suggest talent, more gut feel here COLD!!! 8 Markezich - coming on strong, took ACC and GL out pretty fast - 8 9 Hertenstein - ignoring Mountain result, based on Nuttycombe and season progression - 5 10 Mitchell - prior 2 seem coming on stronger after Nuttycombe - 18
I should have been wary of the weather factor for freshman from Kenya. Surprised by Roe and Chelangat and are bet many are - just didn't quite have it today. Mitchell may have peaked too early. Missed on Cook (but I had her 11-15)
1) I thought Valby went out too fast and that she would fade hard....she did not, props to her - and she ran the hills well.
2) In my head around 3k, I was screaming 'you need to go Tuohy'...that gap got quite big. and I thought she left it too long. Again, I was wrong...Tuohy is a BEAST!!
3) Further credit to Tuohy, I don't believe she has ever been in a race where she was expected to win where she gave up that much room to the leader....she showed incredible patience waiting as long as she did.....extremely smart runner!!
4) Chmiel was fantastic....until the last stretch, I had no idea she was separating from the pack. But she blew the rest of the pack away with 700m to go.
5) Bush - killed it!!!!
6) Moreno - KILLED IT!! great to see in her last race.
7) I was very impressed by Sterns (she was one of my top 10 potentials but didn't make my list), Hertenstein, Engel, Cook and Dudek (great to see her getting back up to the elite group)
8) Mercy, McCabe and Roe - disappointing for them as they were all expecting top 10...but all were either at or below previous course record....still a good day!!
9) I thought the coverage was excellent.especially compared to many previous races. Video was good. Announcing was good. The only part that sucked is that you did not get many good shots of the chase pack....but that was Valby's fault for taking such a big lead.
10) Great XC Course - hats off to OSU - that is one of the best courses I have seen. Again, in 2020 the video was so crappy you could not get a good handle on how good the course was.
11) and finally, rarely do races live up to the hype....and this one did. It was exciting from start to finish. I was cheering for TUohy, but would have had no problem if Valby had hung on for the win. She made it exciting.
Never really seen anyone run college races like Valby does. She relies on her fitness and hammers it early. The danger is that a runner like this can rabbit you if you go out too early with them. Tuohy had a good game plan and executed it. But Tuohy is just a super strong XC runner. Once she closed to within 5 seconds at the 5k mark it was over. The best performances this season were Tuohy at ACC and Tuohy today.
Chmiel was awesome. Again. She is a big race runner. Third top ten finish. Bush was good again.
Moreno really stepped up and Rauber was solid. Rauber is a good addition. Another strength run who can do well on hilly courses.
Some of the contenders athletes like McCabe or Chelangat had tough days.
1) I thought Valby went out too fast and that she would fade hard....she did not, props to her - and she ran the hills well.
2) In my head around 3k, I was screaming 'you need to go Tuohy'...that gap got quite big. and I thought she left it too long. Again, I was wrong...Tuohy is a BEAST!!
3) Further credit to Tuohy, I don't believe she has ever been in a race where she was expected to win where she gave up that much room to the leader....she showed incredible patience waiting as long as she did.....extremely smart runner!!
4) Chmiel was fantastic....until the last stretch, I had no idea she was separating from the pack. But she blew the rest of the pack away with 700m to go.
5) Bush - killed it!!!!
6) Moreno - KILLED IT!! great to see in her last race.
7) I was very impressed by Sterns (she was one of my top 10 potentials but didn't make my list), Hertenstein, Engel, Cook and Dudek (great to see her getting back up to the elite group)
8) Mercy, McCabe and Roe - disappointing for them as they were all expecting top 10...but all were either at or below previous course record....still a good day!!
9) I thought the coverage was excellent.especially compared to many previous races. Video was good. Announcing was good. The only part that sucked is that you did not get many good shots of the chase pack....but that was Valby's fault for taking such a big lead.
10) Great XC Course - hats off to OSU - that is one of the best courses I have seen. Again, in 2020 the video was so crappy you could not get a good handle on how good the course was.
11) and finally, rarely do races live up to the hype....and this one did. It was exciting from start to finish. I was cheering for TUohy, but would have had no problem if Valby had hung on for the win. She made it exciting.
I had a lot of the same thoughts. I would add
1) Valby surprised me. She is worthy of the hype. I did not think she had true cross country grit, but today I felt nothing but respect. She ran with a lot of heart and was awesome. If she stays healthy she is going to be a force on the track.
2) Brooke Rauber being a scoring member of NC State's championship team makes me so happy!!!
3) I completely underestimated Natalie Cook. 7th place at NCAA's as a true freshman. Wow!
4) Alabama needs a 5th runner. STAT!
5) Touhy gave me a workout from my couch this morning. I was expecting her to maybe have a fight for the win, but at the 3K Garmin was giving me elevated heart rate and relax warnings. I was screaming at the TV like an idiot. It was another thrilling race, and I love seeing her becoming such an ace at racing. There were some who had doubts. For all of the criticism of us rabid Touhy fans, hopefully today anyone can see why she is worth the hype. That being said, I think she is going to face fierce competition in the coming years,
6) I think coach Henes is doing such a great job with KT and the NC State team. I can only imagine the restraint it took for Katelyn to not go with Parker this morning. She trusted her coach, whose plan was spot on. She knew her athletes, and she called it exactly right. She walked away with everything today!
7) Sam Bush moving up from 32nd last year to 15th (the place that KT got last year) should not be overlooked. She passed a lot of people in the last K. She figured out at Nuttycomb that hanging back early in the race worked better for her, and she is right. She has been stellar ever since. Same for Nevada Mareno.
8) Glad to see Zofia Dudek up there again. 20th place in this field is pretty darn good.
9) One of the biggest wins that I noted was how Touhy responds to the pressure leading up to nationals compared to just 3 years ago at her final NXN. Seeing her in the interviews the day before the race, she was taking everything in stride and not overcome with stress at all (despite having a ton of pressure with the Touhy/Valby) showdown. That, to me, is an even bigger win for her than her racing tactics. Henes has taught her to handle the pressure like a pro, and we saw the effects of that today. It is enjoyable to see such a huge difference and what that seems to mean for her in being able to enjoy her moments.
10) Ellie Henes and Hannah Steelman making the trip to support NC State totally melts my heart. This is why that program is so strong. They are all in it, even after they move on. They are in the background in some of the picture, just ecstatic. What a special thing to be part of!