I'm quite aware they're college athletes. Must be nice to train without being in the USADA testing pool and then toddle off to the Olympics. No other country's athletes get this kind of exemption from proper testing.
Other countries’ athletes who compete in the NCAA (there’s quite a lot of them!) are also under the NCAA’s drug testing.
Again - others in the race improved a lot too. How do you explain them?
Why don't you list them and I'll happily engage in a dialogue with you looking at all the relevant metrics that are applying to the discussion around Hull.
(and btw go and read any of my posts, I'm still on her side with respect to benefit of the doubt but can still stay rational and objective).
So who were they and then we can look at them.
This post was edited 18 seconds after it was posted.
A bit harsh from Armstronglivs, but it is actually a good point:
We are not talking about some fairly mediocre runner (by global standards) popping a less mediocre time at some point (probably in his early 20s).
We are talking about a global elite, a professional who has raced in countless time trials perfectly set up for PBs, every year of her adult life, who at age 27 suddenly runs almost seven seconds faster than the previous year.
Can you see the difference? (Hint: Flower Boy's "me-me-me" insertion of himself into this is irrelevant.)
“Countless” time trials “perfectly” set up. Hyperbole much? She *did* get many PBs in those years. But how many races was she in where she had the opportunity to follow someone on literal WR pace? That rare chance, combined with ideal conditions in terms of track/weather (evidenced by the outstanding performances across the meet), together with her peaking for perhaps the most importance majors of her career - easily accounts for a breakthrough, in my view. The ability of the mind to push the body to new physical limits is remarkable in many domains, in and out of athletics.
I can answer your question. Hull had 3 such races last year alone.
June 2, 2023 in Florence - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the 1500m world record. Kipyegon ran 3:49.11 and Hull ran 3:57.29.
July 21, 2023 in Monaco - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the mile world record. Kipyegon ran 4:07.64 and Hull ran 4:15.34.
September 16, 2023 in Eugene - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon ran one of the fastest times ever in the 1500. Kipyegon ran 3:50.72 and Hull ran 3:57.57.
And that's just last year. That doesn't include:
the 2022 world championships in which Kipyegon ran 3:52.96 to Hull's 4:01.82
the 2022 Diamond League meet in Monaco in which Kipyegon ran 3:50.37 to Hull's 4:01.73
the 2022 Pre Classic at which Kipyegon ran 3:52.59 to Hull's 3:59.31.
That's half a dozen opportunities over the previous two years that Hull had to run a blazing fast time right behind Kipyegon. In all those races, the gap between Kipyegon and Hull was in the range of ~7 to 11 seconds. Last weekend, the gap was less than 2 seconds.
“Countless” time trials “perfectly” set up. Hyperbole much? She *did* get many PBs in those years. But how many races was she in where she had the opportunity to follow someone on literal WR pace? That rare chance, combined with ideal conditions in terms of track/weather (evidenced by the outstanding performances across the meet), together with her peaking for perhaps the most importance majors of her career - easily accounts for a breakthrough, in my view. The ability of the mind to push the body to new physical limits is remarkable in many domains, in and out of athletics.
I can answer your question. Hull had 3 such races last year alone.
June 2, 2023 in Florence - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the 1500m world record. Kipyegon ran 3:49.11 and Hull ran 3:57.29.
July 21, 2023 in Monaco - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the mile world record. Kipyegon ran 4:07.64 and Hull ran 4:15.34.
September 16, 2023 in Eugene - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon ran one of the fastest times ever in the 1500. Kipyegon ran 3:50.72 and Hull ran 3:57.57.
And that's just last year. That doesn't include:
the 2022 world championships in which Kipyegon ran 3:52.96 to Hull's 4:01.82
the 2022 Diamond League meet in Monaco in which Kipyegon ran 3:50.37 to Hull's 4:01.73
the 2022 Pre Classic at which Kipyegon ran 3:52.59 to Hull's 3:59.31.
That's half a dozen opportunities over the previous two years that Hull had to run a blazing fast time right behind Kipyegon. In all those races, the gap between Kipyegon and Hull was in the range of ~7 to 11 seconds. Last weekend, the gap was less than 2 seconds.
Looking at the first few races you mention in turn:
June 2, 2023: Hull set a two-second 1500 PB
July 21, 2023: Hull set a three-second mile PB
Sep 16, 2023: Not actually WR pace, so already you're trying to make your case out as stronger than it is. Nonetheless Hull basically replicated the PB she set earlier in the year.
Yes, the gap was larger in the past, because Hull had more room to improve. Wow, how suspicious. If anything, you're helping Hull's case here. Exceptional performances breed exceptional performances.
“Countless” time trials “perfectly” set up. Hyperbole much? She *did* get many PBs in those years. But how many races was she in where she had the opportunity to follow someone on literal WR pace? That rare chance, combined with ideal conditions in terms of track/weather (evidenced by the outstanding performances across the meet), together with her peaking for perhaps the most importance majors of her career - easily accounts for a breakthrough, in my view. The ability of the mind to push the body to new physical limits is remarkable in many domains, in and out of athletics.
Fanboy, just think a bit.
She has literally never won a major international race, including over 10 paced Diamond League races. If she could have run faster while coming in places 3rd, 4th, or 8th in all those time trials, she would have. And she didn't.
Knowing that obvious fact, why on earth do you think it would have mattered if someone in a 2023 race was 9 seconds ahead of her, 3:49 to 3:57? Even when paced and dragged around by better runners, she was clearly going flat-out to lose races by 1-3 seconds and finish 4th or 8th at 3:57-3:58 over and over.
But how many races was she in where she had the opportunity to follow someone on literal WR pace? That rare chance, combined with ideal conditions in terms of track/weather (evidenced by the outstanding performances across the meet), together with her peaking for perhaps the most importance majors of her career - easily accounts for a breakthrough, in my view. The ability of the mind to push the body to new physical limits is remarkable in many domains, in and out of athletics.
A wondrous thing, indeed. The answer to your question is..."many."
As anyone posting on this should know, and has already been posted:
June 2, 2023 in Florence - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the 1500m world record. Kipyegon ran 3:49.11 and Hull ran 3:57.29.
July 21, 2023 in Monaco - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon broke the mile world record. Kipyegon ran 4:07.64 and Hull ran 4:15.34.
September 16, 2023 in Eugene - Hull was in the same race in which Kipyegon ran one of the fastest times ever in the 1500. Kipyegon ran 3:50.72 and Hull ran 3:57.57.
Your quibbling over the difference between Kipyegon’s 3:49 and her 3:50 misses the bigger picture point I made and the context of the conversation.
In my mind the exceptional nature of a WR race is a large contributor to Hull achieving what she did. If I was to take your point, maybe what you mean is that, OK, she improved by two seconds to 3:57 in June 2023, why not make another such improvement in Sep 2023 when given a similar situation? If she's at 3:50 now and not doping, surely she was capable of at least 3:55 last year?
I guess I'm saying that there are many factors involved in these performances, and you can't expect improvements like clockwork. It might have been the case that she *was* capable of 3:55 or better last year, but it took another exceptional race for things to align.
There's a bit of a black swan fallacy going on, perhaps. In trying to explain this extraordinary thing (Hull running 3:50), we seek oversimplified explanations (doping). But doping is not as simple an explanation as it seems, because it comes with a lot of baggage (assumptions around systematic cover-ups, etc).
In any case we're too soon after the fact. It will be interesting to see how Hull's season progresses. The graph is unfinished.
Again - others in the race improved a lot too. How do you explain them?
Why don't you list them and I'll happily engage in a dialogue with you looking at all the relevant metrics that are applying to the discussion around Hull.
(and btw go and read any of my posts, I'm still on her side with respect to benefit of the doubt but can still stay rational and objective).
In my mind the exceptional nature of a WR race is a large contributor to Hull achieving what she did. If I was to take your point, maybe what you mean is that, OK, she improved by two seconds to 3:57 in June 2023, why not make another such improvement in Sep 2023 when given a similar situation? If she's at 3:50 now and not doping, surely she was capable of at least 3:55 last year?
I guess I'm saying that there are many factors involved in these performances, and you can't expect improvements like clockwork. It might have been the case that she *was* capable of 3:55 or better last year, but it took another exceptional race for things to align.
There's a bit of a black swan fallacy going on, perhaps. In trying to explain this extraordinary thing (Hull running 3:50), we seek oversimplified explanations (doping). But doping is not as simple an explanation as it seems, because it comes with a lot of baggage (assumptions around systematic cover-ups, etc).
In any case we're too soon after the fact. It will be interesting to see how Hull's season progresses. The graph is unfinished.
Thanks, I appreciate your thoughtful response. To clarify, I’m not accusing Hull of doping. Right now I’m in the “unsure” camp.
The main reason I’m unsure is I don’t have enough information on Hull’s training. I was able to defend Nikki Hiltz from doping allegations on another thread in part because I know Hiltz’s improvement (which is not as extreme as Hull’s) has come after moving to Flagstaff, training under one of the best coaches we have in the country, and doing workouts with strength-based runners. Those factors, coupled with the knowledge that Hiltz underperformed relative to their talent in 2021 and 2022, made Hiltz’s recent results seem plausible to me.
With Hull, it’s not as easy for me to point to similar factors that would explain her improvement. She didn’t start training under a renowned coach like Mike Smith. She started training with her dad (no offense intended to Mr. Hull). And unlike Hiltz, Hull had already been making steady progress since 2019 when she finished just behind Hiltz at the world championships.
I asked earlier in this thread how much time Hull has spent at altitude, noting that she herself said "I haven't done a ton of altitude” in her post-race interview. Someone said 5 weeks. If that’s true, I don’t think that’s nearly enough to explain her improvement. There’s a world of difference between someone living and training at altitude full-time like Hiltz and someone doing a 5-week stint. I would like to know a lot more about Hull’s training and what has changed.
It’s also not satisfactory to chalk up Hull’s improvement to being in a fast race with a fast runner on a fast track in good weather. As I demonstrated, this is far from the first time she’s had such an opportunity. If there’s any oversimplification, it’s attributing her 3:50 merely to the conditions of the race. There has to be a lot more to it than that.
One final note on the Hull-Hiltz connection: one of the other things that made me believe Hiltz’s 3:55 was legit is Hull had run 3:55 earlier this year and I perceived the two of them as being the same caliber of athlete. I thought, “If Hull can run 3:55, then it makes sense that Hiltz can, too.” Now that Hull has run 3:50, I don’t know what to think anymore.
I think probably it has to do the widespread use of the Maurten bicarb hydrogel system. People have known about bicarb for a long time, but putting it in a hydrogel makes it so many people are able to take it without the extreme nausea. I think this is getting more widely adopted across a broader range of middle distance athletes. It's expensive, but legal. I know that Ingebrigtsen has been using it for a while, and the Coffee club boys talked about integrating it just maybe a year and a half ago. Perhaps now it is just standard for middle distance athletes.
Since it seems to be making a difference on middle distance times the most, that makes sense. The longer the race, the more variables come into play besides lactate buffering. I can imagine that for a marathon or even a 10K there are just more factors at play that can affect the race.
It has to be the Maurten gel system for the widespread improvement across the board. Still doesn’t explain Hull’s performance.
Di they need to enable this Maurten gel to be widely available to ALL athletes. Can’t be easy for an unsponsored athlete to get this regularly.
Not necessarily. The Maurten bicarb system really just hit the mainstream in the past couple years. Perhaps she didn't have a chance to experiment enough with it in hard workouts to feel confident that she had the right amount/timing for her body to feel use it racing until recently. It's a fine line between huge help and sh*t your pants. Maybe it was a big jump in fitness from better training with better support (including emotional support from family/friends), a perfectly executed race, and dialed in race nutrition all coalescing.
In my mind the exceptional nature of a WR race is a large contributor to Hull achieving what she did. If I was to take your point, maybe what you mean is that, OK, she improved by two seconds to 3:57 in June 2023, why not make another such improvement in Sep 2023 when given a similar situation? If she's at 3:50 now and not doping, surely she was capable of at least 3:55 last year?
I guess I'm saying that there are many factors involved in these performances, and you can't expect improvements like clockwork. It might have been the case that she *was* capable of 3:55 or better last year, but it took another exceptional race for things to align.
There's a bit of a black swan fallacy going on, perhaps. In trying to explain this extraordinary thing (Hull running 3:50), we seek oversimplified explanations (doping). But doping is not as simple an explanation as it seems, because it comes with a lot of baggage (assumptions around systematic cover-ups, etc).
In any case we're too soon after the fact. It will be interesting to see how Hull's season progresses. The graph is unfinished.
Thanks, I appreciate your thoughtful response. To clarify, I’m not accusing Hull of doping. Right now I’m in the “unsure” camp.
The main reason I’m unsure is I don’t have enough information on Hull’s training. I was able to defend Nikki Hiltz from doping allegations on another thread in part because I know Hiltz’s improvement (which is not as extreme as Hull’s) has come after moving to Flagstaff, training under one of the best coaches we have in the country, and doing workouts with strength-based runners. Those factors, coupled with the knowledge that Hiltz underperformed relative to their talent in 2021 and 2022, made Hiltz’s recent results seem plausible to me.
With Hull, it’s not as easy for me to point to similar factors that would explain her improvement. She didn’t start training under a renowned coach like Mike Smith. She started training with her dad (no offense intended to Mr. Hull). And unlike Hiltz, Hull had already been making steady progress since 2019 when she finished just behind Hiltz at the world championships.
I asked earlier in this thread how much time Hull has spent at altitude, noting that she herself said "I haven't done a ton of altitude” in her post-race interview. Someone said 5 weeks. If that’s true, I don’t think that’s nearly enough to explain her improvement. There’s a world of difference between someone living and training at altitude full-time like Hiltz and someone doing a 5-week stint. I would like to know a lot more about Hull’s training and what has changed.
It’s also not satisfactory to chalk up Hull’s improvement to being in a fast race with a fast runner on a fast track in good weather. As I demonstrated, this is far from the first time she’s had such an opportunity. If there’s any oversimplification, it’s attributing her 3:50 merely to the conditions of the race. There has to be a lot more to it than that.
One final note on the Hull-Hiltz connection: one of the other things that made me believe Hiltz’s 3:55 was legit is Hull had run 3:55 earlier this year and I perceived the two of them as being the same caliber of athlete. I thought, “If Hull can run 3:55, then it makes sense that Hiltz can, too.” Now that Hull has run 3:50, I don’t know what to think anymore.
These are all reasonable points. I'll just say that I don't think it's "merely" the conditions of the race (I don't know the fine details of her latest training, but whatever it is, I would assume it plays some beneficial role), only that I think the ideal conditions we saw in this race are less common than some people seem to believe. And I (perhaps overly!) rate the freak power of mindset. I mean, Wim Hof climbed Everest wearing only his shorts. Obviously Hull has always had a tough mindset, as do all her competitors, but I think there's something to the idea that on this particular day, something clicked. I wouldn't be surprised if Hull never runs near 3:50 again.
It is clear that Hull actually has been in fast multiple races: won at world record pace, won in 3:53, won in 3:55 ... and never won by her.
She has literally run behind the other Kipyegon 3:49, within the past year ... and lost by a massive gap.
Something massive has changed.
When I was in high school, I still remember the kids that were bad in Maths. After 5 years of being in the same class with them, I knew their limits better than anyone else. In the same vein, the only thing I remember from this race, is how Kipyegon kept looking back multiple times behind her...she must have been absolutely dumbfounded to see who it was that was still tracking her on record pace!! This case that is being debated is as clear as an elephant's footprint in the sand. No amount of mental or technical gymnastics can change the facts that are staring all of us in the face...
Again - others in the race improved a lot too. How do you explain them?
Why don't you list them and I'll happily engage in a dialogue with you looking at all the relevant metrics that are applying to the discussion around Hull.
(and btw go and read any of my posts, I'm still on her side with respect to benefit of the doubt but can still stay rational and objective).
So who were they and then we can look at them.
It's not hard to work out, t\The diamond league results list their PB before the race and their time.
If you're going to post on this subject, don't you think you should have looked at this yourself? It's not hard to find.
2 HULL Jessica 3:50.83 AR PB 3:55.97 (5 second PB) 3 MUIR Laura 3:53.79 NR PB 3:54.50 (0.7 second PB) 4 HALL Linden 3:56.40 PB 3:56.92 (0.5 second PB) 5 BELL Georgia 3:56.54 PB 4:00.41 (3.9 second PB) 6 EJORE Susan Lokayo 3:57.26 PB 3:58.63 (1.4 second PB) 7 HEALY Sarah 3:57.46 PB 3:59.68 (2.2 second PB) 8 GUILLEMOT Agathe 3:58.05 NR PB 4:02.05 (4 second PB) 9 SNOWDEN Katie 3:58.13 PB 3:56.72 SB not a PB 10 MAGEEAN Ciara 3:58.69 PB 3:55.87 SB not a PB 11 GETACHEW Nigist 3:58.98 PB 4:05.93 (7 second PB)
In my mind the exceptional nature of a WR race is a large contributor to Hull achieving what she did. If I was to take your point, maybe what you mean is that, OK, she improved by two seconds to 3:57 in June 2023, why not make another such improvement in Sep 2023 when given a similar situation? If she's at 3:50 now and not doping, surely she was capable of at least 3:55 last year?
I guess I'm saying that there are many factors involved in these performances, and you can't expect improvements like clockwork. It might have been the case that she *was* capable of 3:55 or better last year, but it took another exceptional race for things to align.
There's a bit of a black swan fallacy going on, perhaps. In trying to explain this extraordinary thing (Hull running 3:50), we seek oversimplified explanations (doping). But doping is not as simple an explanation as it seems, because it comes with a lot of baggage (assumptions around systematic cover-ups, etc).
In any case we're too soon after the fact. It will be interesting to see how Hull's season progresses. The graph is unfinished.
It’s also not satisfactory to chalk up Hull’s improvement to being in a fast race with a fast runner on a fast track in good weather. As I demonstrated, this is far from the first time she’s had such an opportunity. If there’s any oversimplification, it’s attributing her 3:50 merely to the conditions of the race. There has to be a lot more to it than that.
"this is far from the first time she’s had such an opportunity" - what about the others? How do you explain so many others in the race posting massive PBs?
A bit harsh from Armstronglivs, but it is actually a good point:
We are not talking about some fairly mediocre runner (by global standards) popping a less mediocre time at some point (probably in his early 20s).
We are talking about a global elite, a professional who has raced in countless time trials perfectly set up for PBs, every year of her adult life, who at age 27 suddenly runs almost seven seconds faster than the previous year.
Can you see the difference? (Hint: Flower Boy's "me-me-me" insertion of himself into this is irrelevant.)
As other posts on this have shown, you've pitched higher than their level of comprehension.
A bit harsh from Armstronglivs, but it is actually a good point:
We are not talking about some fairly mediocre runner (by global standards) popping a less mediocre time at some point (probably in his early 20s).
We are talking about a global elite, a professional who has raced in countless time trials perfectly set up for PBs, every year of her adult life, who at age 27 suddenly runs almost seven seconds faster than the previous year.
Can you see the difference? (Hint: Flower Boy's "me-me-me" insertion of himself into this is irrelevant.)
“Countless” time trials “perfectly” set up. Hyperbole much? She *did* get many PBs in those years. But how many races was she in where she had the opportunity to follow someone on literal WR pace? That rare chance, combined with ideal conditions in terms of track/weather (evidenced by the outstanding performances across the meet), together with her peaking for perhaps the most importance majors of her career - easily accounts for a breakthrough, in my view. The ability of the mind to push the body to new physical limits is remarkable in many domains, in and out of athletics.
That's what Lance used to say. There's no explaining what the body is capable of. He should know.
We've updated our BetterRunningShoes.com web site to make it easier to find good deals on the best shoes. To keep it great we need new shoe reviews from you.