Jesuit La had 4 guys above 180 speed rating without their #1 guy racing. Crazy. in 2019 Newbury Park had 7 guys above 180 at state. I think there were 2 more juniors that didn’t race at state that ran above 180
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I want to be Big meets this weekend but this website sucks and w
Speed ratings are still a little confusing to me (How do you choose a baseline meet? How does that keep things consistent? Etc.)
I usually don't look much at speed rating but like you, I do find them interesting to look at now and then. Place is a lot more important and metrics like speed ratings do not account for all individual race situations. What about the guy that only runs with enough effort to win? There are also instances that a team mate might drop back to help "pull" another team mate along.
There is some info on tullyrunners.com that helps explain speed ratings:
My Top Boys after results this weekend of results (in order)
Mason: 5 under 16 in a hot field at Nike
Coffman: Getting hot at right time? 3 under 16, next two under 16:16. Can they replicate going forward
St. X: Comparable to Coffman but Coffman a better front-running 1-2 punch. First view at this level of running from a complete 5 at once, all year..also at Nike
TSF: Traveled south and Lost to Coffman. Solid 1-2 punch and could gain traction if their 3-5 can drop a bit more (averaged 16:16, 16:16, 16:19 Saturday)
Lancaster: Improvement in frontrunning triplets going sub 16, #5 a bit distant (16:34)
HD: Traveled to Tenn. and while Ackley continued to dominate, their 3-4-5 (16:26, 16:32, 16:37) need to close the gap towards 16:00 to climb up the state ranks
Mass. Jackson: Won the meet, but definitely not as strong as earlier this season (#5 at 16:50)
It's XC, not track...if times mattered send everyone to RunningLane where they can PR by 45 seconds and still place the same as they would on any other course. You can focus on the fact that Coffman put everyone under 16:18 this week, or focus on the fact that Lancaster put 5 runners ahead of their #3 literally one week ago. I'm going with the latter.
1. Mason - great race at Nike, could get even better if they get healthy
2. Lancaster - won at Centerville, solid top 3 with decent 1-5 spread
3. Mas. Jackson - won at Stark County but concerns at 4-5
4. Dub. Coffman - improving, beat TSF at Berlin Bear Den Dash
5. Hil. Davidson - back end of lineup improving
6. St. Xavier - got two missing guys back, we'll see how they look in a month
7. Tol. St. Francis - still a good team but had a tough race this weekend
8. Springboro - will probably place better at state meet than Nike
9. Chardon - second to Lancaster at Centerville
10. Medina - didn't run this weekend
Absolutely. However, as alluded to, I'm am looking at this weekends results and also taking into consideration course. This weekend had a lot of fast courses; I'm aware of Lancaster's beat down of Coffman last week, but Coffman improved this week and closed gaps in their lineups, particularly at 3# (which allowed them to exploit the gap between TSF #2 and #3).
On a course that ran fast, with Tommy Rice running a 15:06, Mass. Jackson looked extremely vulnerable. I would not have them that high personally (just using this weekend,...a whole season worth of racing is a different top 10 lol)
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I want to be Big meets this weekend but this website sucks and w
3. Mas. Jackson - won at Stark County but concerns at 4-5
I looked at the Stark County results and agree about Jackson's 4 & 5. They need to tighten up.
There were a few other things...
If Glen Oak could get their 3-5 to move up a bit they could be really good. I know it's a big "if," but still. Tommy Rice is one of the best in the state and #2 is solid.
It is amazing how far Louisville has fallen in a year unless they were resting guys. The Stark County Championships are usually a big deal for those teams in the county and coaches usually run their top teams. Last year Louisville was #4 at the State meet. In 2020 they were 8th. At the Starks this past weekend they had 4 of 7 over 19:00 and an average time of 18:21. It also wasn't that long ago when the Chaplik brothers, Zach Fresenko, and Nick Fresenko (earlier 2010s), were at Louisville. I guess old suburbs like Louisville don't reload like the newer suburban schools like Mason, the Hillards, the Dublins, etc.
In the D2/D3 race Marlington was dominant, unsurprisingly. They look to be more dominant than the 2020 Woodridge team. I don't generally pay much attention to merged results since they are from different races with teams that didn't race against each other but in those Marlington has 53 and Jackson has 66. Marlington averaged 16:06 to 16:16 for Jackson.
East Canton also seems to be going through a rough patch. They have a strong front runner in Holland but a big drop off after that.
There are a lot of schools similar to GlenOak that have a really solid 1-2 but not enough behind them. Nobody is catching Mason, but it should be really competitive for second.
The girls D1 state meet should be awesome. Davidson and Mason have looked great against strong out of state competition, and Westlake has a really good team too. Perrysburg will be in the mix as well. That's probably going to be the most exciting race from a team standpoint.
I have to ask: why is the new consensus that Coffman is ranked higher than Davidson? Didn’t Davidson beat them just a couple weeks ago? And I wouldn’t bet on Davidson peaking early, they usually peak quite late. I would personally put Davidson at 2 and Coffman at 3 unless Coffman has another great race.
I have to ask: why is the new consensus that Coffman is ranked higher than Davidson? Didn’t Davidson beat them just a couple weeks ago? And I wouldn’t bet on Davidson peaking early, they usually peak quite late. I would personally put Davidson at 2 and Coffman at 3 unless Coffman has another great race.
Speed ratings are still a little confusing to me (How do you choose a baseline meet? How does that keep things consistent? Etc.) but they are still interesting to look at. Here are Mason, St. Xavier, Springboro, and Lancaster’s speed ratings from Nike and Centerville:
Mason: 182 177 176 174 172 (165) (163)
St. Xavier: 180 171 170 167 165 (153) (152)
Springboro: 170 168 167 159 152 (151) (124)
Lancaster: 166 166 161 154 149 (134) (128)
Again, maybe I just don’t understand speed ratings, but my gut tells me that Lancaster is better than Springboro. And even if St. Xavier is better than Lancaster, I do not see them putting 4 guys ahead of Lancaster’s #1. You could make a case for Dub. Coffman, Hil. Davidson, Lancaster, Mas. Jackson, St. Xavier, and Tol. St. Francis all potentially being the #2 D1 Boys team in Ohio right now. I think Dub. Coffman, Lancaster, Hil. Davidson, St. Xavier are all trending the right direction. Mas. Jackson and Tol. St. Francis did not have great weekends.
Speaking of speed rating accuracies, how accurate was that 196 SR that Ackley got here? (this is the fastest other than Rocky Hanson and Newbury Park guys)
I guess we will see whether Davidson or Coffman will win their OCC race in 2 weeks, since the other 4 teams (Orange, Bradley, Liberty, UA) have little chance of winning.
I have to ask: why is the new consensus that Coffman is ranked higher than Davidson? Didn’t Davidson beat them just a couple weeks ago? And I wouldn’t bet on Davidson peaking early, they usually peak quite late. I would personally put Davidson at 2 and Coffman at 3 unless Coffman has another great race.
True. HD beat Coffman at Michigan St.
Fair point, I probably had some bias as they've run against Lancaster and TSF the last two weeks, while Davidson had a week off then ran against a bunch of out of state teams. But I'd take Lancaster over either of them at this point. Will be interesting to see the regional meet in 4 weeks.
I have to ask: why is the new consensus that Coffman is ranked higher than Davidson? Didn’t Davidson beat them just a couple weeks ago? And I wouldn’t bet on Davidson peaking early, they usually peak quite late. I would personally put Davidson at 2 and Coffman at 3 unless Coffman has another great race.
True. HD beat Coffman at Michigan St.
HD beat Coffman 3 weeks in a row before losing to them at state last year.
Jesuit La had 4 guys above 180 speed rating without their #1 guy racing. Crazy. in 2019 Newbury Park had 7 guys above 180 at state. I think there were 2 more juniors that didn’t race at state that ran above 180
Great oak not Newbury Park. Great oak still lost to them at NXN though
HD beat Coffman 3 weeks in a row before losing to them at state last year.
*confused shrug*
Well, since we're talking about this year and the current rankings, I figured recent race results are relevant.
Are you suggesting that they aren't? Should we just base the rankings on speculation? Or last year?
I'm not sure why you're confused or shrugging.
Recent race results are very releveant, I'm just saying it's very hard to figure out who is better than who and oftentimes results don't make any sense. That's all.
3. Mas. Jackson - won at Stark County but concerns at 4-5
I looked at the Stark County results and agree about Jackson's 4 & 5. They need to tighten up.
There were a few other things...
If Glen Oak could get their 3-5 to move up a bit they could be really good. I know it's a big "if," but still. Tommy Rice is one of the best in the state and #2 is solid.
It is amazing how far Louisville has fallen in a year unless they were resting guys. The Stark County Championships are usually a big deal for those teams in the county and coaches usually run their top teams. Last year Louisville was #4 at the State meet. In 2020 they were 8th. At the Starks this past weekend they had 4 of 7 over 19:00 and an average time of 18:21. It also wasn't that long ago when the Chaplik brothers, Zach Fresenko, and Nick Fresenko (earlier 2010s), were at Louisville. I guess old suburbs like Louisville don't reload like the newer suburban schools like Mason, the Hillards, the Dublins, etc.
In the D2/D3 race Marlington was dominant, unsurprisingly. They look to be more dominant than the 2020 Woodridge team. I don't generally pay much attention to merged results since they are from different races with teams that didn't race against each other but in those Marlington has 53 and Jackson has 66. Marlington averaged 16:06 to 16:16 for Jackson.
East Canton also seems to be going through a rough patch. They have a strong front runner in Holland but a big drop off after that.
Marlington beat Jackson head up. They don't run divisions separate at this meet. They just score it out separate and together after the race.
The only team of real significance in the Darby Dash is Hilliard Davidson, but they aren't running their varsity, so it doesn't show how OCC's will actually play out.
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