For sure it says that Kenya almost immediately could compete very close to the absolute top. No German was ahead of him. No US American. No Italian, no pole, no czech, no finn, no swede, no french. Despite having decades of experience in this nations, hundreds of athletics clubs and a lot of tradition and some scientific approach . Nurmi, Zatopek, Haegg, Ladoumegue, Harbig, Lovelock, Cunningham to name a few. What was the background in Kenya? Already some European coaches? Some club structure? Definitely nothing compared to the top European nations.
The Kenyan success is not the result of doping (for sure there is doping in Kenya, mobody denies this) but of great all-around conditions (no need to list them again, any running fan knows them) for running fast in the longer events.
How was Henry Rono able to break four different world record in a single season? While little overweight even at his best? Because his doping was more sophisticated to the European version? Nonsense. Because he was enormously gifted. Probably combined with extremely hard training. Does someone have good infos about Rono's training?
My initial question in my last post here was not necessary.
7th by one individual in one race is a pretty strained argument to suggest a nationality had significant athletic potential. I could probably find a Ceylonese who came 7th somewhere in the distant past. Kenya didn't show that it had any real talent in running till Kiprugut and Keino in the late '60's - and certainly not as much talent as both Australia and New Zealand had demonstrated at that time. But, as we see, they have never doped like we have seen the Kenyans do. Few do. Only Russia and India are worse.
Go and show me this Ceylonese. Or some Senegalese. They have a NR of 14:29 - today.
No, Kenya clearly showed its great running talent already in Melbourne. Yes, by this one individual. From a country with absolutely no background to train world class runners. Soon he would run faster than Zatopek ever did. A few years later Keino would run WRs over 3k and 5k. And Kiprugut would medal already in 64. Also no sign for some running talent?
What about Keino winning in Munich 72 the steeple without any experience in running the hurdles? Or the almost unknown Kimobwa setting a 10k WR in 77? Just normal? Where is the comparable Ceylonese (you are really up to date with all your knowledge) athlete?
And Rono in 78? Just because of doping? Have you just said a single word to the cross country domination from Kenya and Ethiopia from 1981 onwards? All those barefooted 15 yo girls (I know, all are age cheats) were much better doped in school than all the athletes coming from much better developed countries were doping in the Tour de France probably was common from the very first edition?
What about those probably hundreds of Kenyan steeplers who clear the water jump in a manner where any white European would tell it's close to impossible for him without getting in danger for breaking the leg? The Kenyans are able to do it because of their better doping? Or maybe because of all the reasons (which your stupid friend calls myths) mentioned since decades?
Again you will change the subject. Many Kenyans dope, yes, that's a fact. But this has nothing to do with the other FACT that there obviously are much better all-around conditions to get running success in some parts of Kenya than in most other parts of the world.
Kari Sinkkonen, the coach of Pekka Vasala (1972, Olympic gold) and Pekka Päivärinta (XC world champion), visited Kenya and the high-altitude villages in 1976, and was convinced that the natural talent could produce an abundance of elite level runners in future:
"There is no great organisation on track & field sports, and therefore it is very random, when top elite athletes emerge. Understandably it is known in Kenya that high altitude training affects oxygen uptake and therefore performance, but - unlike in Finland - there is no system to track promising young athletes. In Kenya, a talented young athlete enters under systematic training most likely by accident... At the so-called running tracks, there can be stones that are equivalent to fist in size, I couldn't make a single one of our runners to run at those tracks... If the Kenyan athletic federation would be more effective and sophisticated in tracking young and promising athletes and the general level of progress would be higher, we here in Europe would have no change to compete against them in endurance running..."
The (in)famous confessed blood doper Mikko Ala-Leppilampi was also one of his protegés, and nobody knows is Vasala or Päivärinta blood doped also.
It is still at least debated how much natural surplus of red blood cells the elite Kenyans have. There is data on the 28:00-29:00 - level guys indicating that there is not that much, but the data on super-elites is scarce.
If the Kenyan athletic federation would be more effective and sophisticated in tracking young and promising athletes and the general level of progress would be higher, we here in Europe would have no change to compete against them in endurance running..."
Ethiopia has had a sophisticated state led system for spotting and developing talent since the 1960's. The GDR modelled their system on that of Ethiopia. Although they produced some greats before the availability of EPO, they never came close to dominating distance running. Before 1992, 3 Ethiopians had broken 2:09. Now, 165 have.
As I already explained, my view is that doping existed in the 1980s, worldwide. Not sure that included EPO though, since Coevett says it is unanimous that that only appeared around 1992. It is also questionable to what extent it existed in Kenya and Ethiopia, but let's say it existed already -- full force full throttle doping surely existed in Eastern and Western Europe, the USA, and Russia.
Your answer just avoids the question with your usual song and tap dance. You think yourself this septuagenarian grand wizard of track performance history -- surely you can explain how these two poor countries with shoestring budgets and frail infrastructure spanked the rest of the world so hard before high octane EPO, while leaving me out of your expert explanation.
Stop lying you idiot. I've stated many times that EPO could have been used by those with the best connections, perhaps by Aouita, perhaps by the Spanish, as early as 1985. The most common viewpoint here is that by the Barcelona Olympics a lot of the elite were using it. I doubt if it was on sale in Kenyan High Street pharmacies for 2:12 Kenyan marathoners much before 92 or so.
Lying? Who said this then: "Worth pointing out again that before 1992 (the widely agreed year when EPO started to become widely used in distance running) ..."?
With your deep knowledge, how do you explain Kenyan and Ethiopian world dominance in 1986, considering Aouita and the Spanish were perhaps just the few ones with connections to get EPO? Kenya dominated with 9 seniors and 5 juniors, while Ethiopia dominated with 7 seniors and 5 juniors, despite Aouita and the Spanish connections.
That's a rather self-serving and rather trivial assessment. Depending on what you want to mean by "elite", the only athletes in testing pools at all are elite athletes, and therefore every list of busts is composed of elite athletes.
Contrary to your perception, most of the names on any list are not the "most talented" runners, but typically nobodies you never heard of, until they were busted, running mediocre times.
You are not informed. Look at the list of Kenyan athletes busted. The only top athlete at that level conspicuous by his absence - so far - is Kipchoge.
I am well informed, but you are not providing any information. You refer to some list you won't produce.
Recall you said it is "typically the most talented". If we take Coevett's list of 250+ (sic) busted Kenyans, and cross-correlate that with casual obsever's lists of former champions and winners, you will see that what is "typical" on these lists are the 95% of mediocre athlete that nobody outside of Kenya ever heard of before they were busted.
You say "only top athlete at that level", but I can count a half-dozen Kenyans this year, besides Kipchoge, who have run sub-2:05, something that among non-Africans, only one Japanese runner, and one American with a tailwind, could ever accomplish.
And these lists don't help your second wish, that "it is also how they become the best".
Of course a lot more than eight were caught this year, among other things because so many Kenyans dope and there are for example (by my count today) 98 Kenyan 2:07 runners and 131 Kenyan 2:08 runners, but only 2 with a 2:01, 2 with a 2:02, 9 with a 2:03, 20 with a 2:04 etc.
All "typical nobodies" - according to rekrunner. I guess that only leaves Kipchoge.
Recall I said "most of the names on any list are not the "most talented" runners". You argued you have a conservative list with 2000 names this year alone, and apparently only 8 of them are talented. When I counted nearly 30 years of talented Kenyans, I only found 226 men beating times set in the 1980s. So if you are looking at 2000 dopers in a single year, it seems that the "typical" one can't be all that talented.
Sometimes casual obsever produces lists of athletes busted for violating rules not involving banned substances. 3 of his 8 were busted for "whereabouts". Do you suggest "whereabouts failures" makes the best athletes better? David Howman isn't talking about whereabouts violations.
Many of the other names in his list have a time correlation problem, where the busts and PRs or winds are not synced the way you would expect cause and effect to work. For example, Kisorio busted for a steroid in 2012, PR'd in 2018, then busted for whereabouts in 2022.
You say doping makes them their best, but Kisorio was not running anywhere near his best when he was busted for doping.
7th by one individual in one race is a pretty strained argument to suggest a nationality had significant athletic potential. I could probably find a Ceylonese who came 7th somewhere in the distant past. Kenya didn't show that it had any real talent in running till Kiprugut and Keino in the late '60's - and certainly not as much talent as both Australia and New Zealand had demonstrated at that time. But, as we see, they have never doped like we have seen the Kenyans do. Few do. Only Russia and India are worse.
Go and show me this Ceylonese. Or some Senegalese. They have a NR of 14:29 - today.
No, Kenya clearly showed its great running talent already in Melbourne. Yes, by this one individual. From a country with absolutely no background to train world class runners. Soon he would run faster than Zatopek ever did. A few years later Keino would run WRs over 3k and 5k. And Kiprugut would medal already in 64. Also no sign for some running talent?
What about Keino winning in Munich 72 the steeple without any experience in running the hurdles? Or the almost unknown Kimobwa setting a 10k WR in 77? Just normal? Where is the comparable Ceylonese (you are really up to date with all your knowledge) athlete?
And Rono in 78? Just because of doping? Have you just said a single word to the cross country domination from Kenya and Ethiopia from 1981 onwards? All those barefooted 15 yo girls (I know, all are age cheats) were much better doped in school than all the athletes coming from much better developed countries were doping in the Tour de France probably was common from the very first edition?
What about those probably hundreds of Kenyan steeplers who clear the water jump in a manner where any white European would tell it's close to impossible for him without getting in danger for breaking the leg? The Kenyans are able to do it because of their better doping? Or maybe because of all the reasons (which your stupid friend calls myths) mentioned since decades?
Again you will change the subject. Many Kenyans dope, yes, that's a fact. But this has nothing to do with the other FACT that there obviously are much better all-around conditions to get running success in some parts of Kenya than in most other parts of the world.
I knew you would miss the point about Ceylon. Actually Ceylon has had two Olympic medallists in athletics - both silver. One was in 1948 and the other was in 2000. You would have to concede that is substantially better than 7th. Yet, curiously, none of those medals presaged Ceylon taking the running world by storm. And neither did a 7th placing by an unknown Kenyan in 1956 say the same about Kenya.
However, we do know that the success Kenya has subsequently enjoyed has been aided by doping at a level not very different from the E Germans. Only Russia today and India with its huge population are worse.
All "typical nobodies" - according to rekrunner. I guess that only leaves Kipchoge.
Recall I said "most of the names on any list are not the "most talented" runners". You argued you have a conservative list with 2000 names this year alone, and apparently only 8 of them are talented. When I counted nearly 30 years of talented Kenyans, I only found 226 men beating times set in the 1980s. So if you are looking at 2000 dopers in a single year, it seems that the "typical" one can't be all that talented.
Sometimes casual obsever produces lists of athletes busted for violating rules not involving banned substances. 3 of his 8 were busted for "whereabouts". Do you suggest "whereabouts failures" makes the best athletes better? David Howman isn't talking about whereabouts violations.
Many of the other names in his list have a time correlation problem, where the busts and PRs or winds are not synced the way you would expect cause and effect to work. For example, Kisorio busted for a steroid in 2012, PR'd in 2018, then busted for whereabouts in 2022.
You say doping makes them their best, but Kisorio was not running anywhere near his best when he was busted for doping.
By Howman's calculus it can be estimated that anywhere between 500-2000 Kenyan athletes have doped this year alone. I would say there is every chance that the best dozen or so runners will be included amongst them, otherwise it would have to be argued that amongst such a "talented" running population the doped athletes gain no advantage over their clean peers. We have seen from the busted medallists and record breakers this isn't so. Doping gives advantage.
Go and show me this Ceylonese. Or some Senegalese. They have a NR of 14:29 - today.
No, Kenya clearly showed its great running talent already in Melbourne. Yes, by this one individual. From a country with absolutely no background to train world class runners. Soon he would run faster than Zatopek ever did. A few years later Keino would run WRs over 3k and 5k. And Kiprugut would medal already in 64. Also no sign for some running talent?
What about Keino winning in Munich 72 the steeple without any experience in running the hurdles? Or the almost unknown Kimobwa setting a 10k WR in 77? Just normal? Where is the comparable Ceylonese (you are really up to date with all your knowledge) athlete?
And Rono in 78? Just because of doping? Have you just said a single word to the cross country domination from Kenya and Ethiopia from 1981 onwards? All those barefooted 15 yo girls (I know, all are age cheats) were much better doped in school than all the athletes coming from much better developed countries were doping in the Tour de France probably was common from the very first edition?
What about those probably hundreds of Kenyan steeplers who clear the water jump in a manner where any white European would tell it's close to impossible for him without getting in danger for breaking the leg? The Kenyans are able to do it because of their better doping? Or maybe because of all the reasons (which your stupid friend calls myths) mentioned since decades?
Again you will change the subject. Many Kenyans dope, yes, that's a fact. But this has nothing to do with the other FACT that there obviously are much better all-around conditions to get running success in some parts of Kenya than in most other parts of the world.
I knew you would miss the point about Ceylon. Actually Ceylon has had two Olympic medallists in athletics - both silver. One was in 1948 and the other was in 2000. You would have to concede that is substantially better than 7th. Yet, curiously, none of those medals presaged Ceylon taking the running world by storm. And neither did a 7th placing by an unknown Kenyan in 1956 say the same about Kenya.
However, we do know that the success Kenya has subsequently enjoyed has been aided by doping at a level not very different from the E Germans. Only Russia today and India with its huge population are worse.
Are you still doing research on 1986 World Cross Country? How did Kenyans and Ethiopians dominate by so much back then? What doping existed then? According to your fellow colleague Coevett, EPO wouldn't be widely available until 1992, and the only ones connected enough would be perhaps Aouita and the Spanish.
Why didn't doping help the Russians and Chinese and Indians, apart from the occasional Russian and Chinese women in the shorter distance events?
Recall I said "most of the names on any list are not the "most talented" runners". You argued you have a conservative list with 2000 names this year alone, and apparently only 8 of them are talented. When I counted nearly 30 years of talented Kenyans, I only found 226 men beating times set in the 1980s. So if you are looking at 2000 dopers in a single year, it seems that the "typical" one can't be all that talented.
Sometimes casual obsever produces lists of athletes busted for violating rules not involving banned substances. 3 of his 8 were busted for "whereabouts". Do you suggest "whereabouts failures" makes the best athletes better? David Howman isn't talking about whereabouts violations.
Many of the other names in his list have a time correlation problem, where the busts and PRs or winds are not synced the way you would expect cause and effect to work. For example, Kisorio busted for a steroid in 2012, PR'd in 2018, then busted for whereabouts in 2022.
You say doping makes them their best, but Kisorio was not running anywhere near his best when he was busted for doping.
By Howman's calculus it can be estimated that anywhere between 500-2000 Kenyan athletes have doped this year alone. I would say there is every chance that the best dozen or so runners will be included amongst them, otherwise it would have to be argued that amongst such a "talented" running population the doped athletes gain no advantage over their clean peers. We have seen from the busted medallists and record breakers this isn't so. Doping gives advantage.
This is not Howman's calculus, but Armstrongliv's calculus.
The flaws are many, but here is sample feedback:
- Howman said that the best anti-doping experts don't really know anything beyond the 1-2% that testing catches.
- You said "WADA's estimate", but WADA did not make any of the estimates you refer to.
- You said "most conservative" -- that doesn't mean "conservative", nor reliably accurate.
- Some of these estimates include sprinters and throwers and jumpers -- not necessarily relevant for Kenya, or other sub-2:09 runners. We know that doping varies widely by gender and by country, and by event/sport.
- 1-2% is for tests and not for athletes. Athletes may be tested multiple times before being caught. If we say that doped athletes are tested multiple times before being caught, that means the percentage of dopers caught is some multiple higher than 1-2% of positive tests.
- 1-2% is a summary for all WADA sports, not just athletics, and not just distance running, and not just men's distance running.
I knew you would miss the point about Ceylon. Actually Ceylon has had two Olympic medallists in athletics - both silver. One was in 1948 and the other was in 2000. You would have to concede that is substantially better than 7th. Yet, curiously, none of those medals presaged Ceylon taking the running world by storm. And neither did a 7th placing by an unknown Kenyan in 1956 say the same about Kenya.
However, we do know that the success Kenya has subsequently enjoyed has been aided by doping at a level not very different from the E Germans. Only Russia today and India with its huge population are worse.
Are you still doing research on 1986 World Cross Country? How did Kenyans and Ethiopians dominate by so much back then? What doping existed then? According to your fellow colleague Coevett, EPO wouldn't be widely available until 1992, and the only ones connected enough would be perhaps Aouita and the Spanish.
Why didn't doping help the Russians and Chinese and Indians, apart from the occasional Russian and Chinese women in the shorter distance events?
So now you are claiming that EPO is the only ped that works??
Yes RekRunner, 1987 world cross country championships was the year Kenya really proved that they have a genetic advantage over the rest of the world. Here are the top 3 kenyans from that year (finished 1,2,5) 1 : John Ngugi - banned for refusing to take out of competition test. 2 : Paul Kipkoech - younger brother banned for EPO positive. 3 : Some Muge - father of Mathew Kisorio, banned for testing positive for steroids at the 2012 world championships (also claimed that there was state sponsored doping in Kenya).
Rekrunner and the other racial science apologists - only 2% of university professors in the USA are Afro-American. Is it equally obvious to you that this is 'proof' that Afro-Americans are less intelligent than other races?
Just to be clear - I do not believe this myself. Just wondering how you can objectively apply different rules of logic here.
Rekrunner and the other racial science apologists -
Explain this designation.
You and Rekrunner are so-called 'scientific racists' who claim that different races have inherent traits that others lack, such as high IQ or the ability to run marathons fast.
Go and show me this Ceylonese. Or some Senegalese. They have a NR of 14:29 - today.
No, Kenya clearly showed its great running talent already in Melbourne. Yes, by this one individual. From a country with absolutely no background to train world class runners. Soon he would run faster than Zatopek ever did. A few years later Keino would run WRs over 3k and 5k. And Kiprugut would medal already in 64. Also no sign for some running talent?
What about Keino winning in Munich 72 the steeple without any experience in running the hurdles? Or the almost unknown Kimobwa setting a 10k WR in 77? Just normal? Where is the comparable Ceylonese (you are really up to date with all your knowledge) athlete?
And Rono in 78? Just because of doping? Have you just said a single word to the cross country domination from Kenya and Ethiopia from 1981 onwards? All those barefooted 15 yo girls (I know, all are age cheats) were much better doped in school than all the athletes coming from much better developed countries were doping in the Tour de France probably was common from the very first edition?
What about those probably hundreds of Kenyan steeplers who clear the water jump in a manner where any white European would tell it's close to impossible for him without getting in danger for breaking the leg? The Kenyans are able to do it because of their better doping? Or maybe because of all the reasons (which your stupid friend calls myths) mentioned since decades?
Again you will change the subject. Many Kenyans dope, yes, that's a fact. But this has nothing to do with the other FACT that there obviously are much better all-around conditions to get running success in some parts of Kenya than in most other parts of the world.
I knew you would miss the point about Ceylon. Actually Ceylon has had two Olympic medallists in athletics - both silver. One was in 1948 and the other was in 2000. You would have to concede that is substantially better than 7th. Yet, curiously, none of those medals presaged Ceylon taking the running world by storm. And neither did a 7th placing by an unknown Kenyan in 1956 say the same about Kenya.
However, we do know that the success Kenya has subsequently enjoyed has been aided by doping at a level not very different from the E Germans. Only Russia today and India with its huge population are worse.
So, you actually have had this example of a Cylonese medalist before, great. Yes, even in the past it was not forbidden for non European and non US-American countries to win medals. Most havn't.
Are Cylonese therefore predestined to run the hurdles? I don't think so.
To excel at the highest level without any background in the country still is a rarity and in the Kenyan case it's obvious that it has to do with the extremely good all-around conditions for running well.
So far I have not seen any concrete answer from you to all the other mentioned examples of great Kenyan success.
No doping available, taking an average Kalenjin and an average Scot of same age. After some preparation, who do you think is more likely to win a Marathon between them? I say the Kalenjin. And you? You can't decide?
"So far in 2022, 45 athletes have been sanctioned for Anti-Doping Rule Violations by the AIU and Anti-Doping Agency of Kenya (ADAK), with over 20 other cases being under review in the worst year for the sport since the crisis escalated in the run-up to the Rio 2016 Olympics in Brazil." 24/11/2022
45.... interesting. Do they have a list? The 8 studs I listed from 2022 are all majors winners, sub-2:06 or sub-60 runners, and they alone make up 8/45 = 18% of the Kenyan athletes sanctioned in 2022.
The "slowest" male Kenyan marathon runner banned in 2022, Kacheran with his 2:05:19, is number 48 of Kenyan's all time list. 387 have run under 2:09. 48/387 = 12%.
Noteworthy is also that all of these eight were all caught by the AIU, not ADAK.
Presuming there is no genetic benefit as such, in addition to naturally being more active from very early age on, there is another factor benefiting the Kenyans.
If there is one settled question relating to altitude training, it is that the response is very individual -- there are negative-responders (performance falls), non-responders, moderate-responders and high-responders etc. There are possibly other ways than via elevating Vo2Max that hypoxia residence benefits performance (Australians have measured better cycling efficiency, Finns had some preliminary data that exercise recovery is better after mountain training etc.). Correspondingly some - even most - western athletes vouch for the method, but some find it even having a detrimental effect.
Whereas 100 % Kalenjin are subjected to hypoxia, only a fragment of the Europeans are unless they either reside at altitude naturally or are elite level athletes already and can afford hypoxic training in some form. It follows that it is unlikely that most of the European high and super-responders to hypoxia ever even find out about their genetic talent unlike close to 100 % of similarly trained Kalenjis.
You and Rekrunner are so-called 'scientific racists' who claim that different races have inherent traits that others lack, such as high IQ or the ability to run marathons fast.
I don't think I have ever claimed this here, but it's obviously true that different races differ in some properties. If not, why should they called different?
People in the Netherlands on average are 20cm taller than people in Guatemala. Just some coincidence? For sure not, it will be also like this in the next generation.
Are you still doing research on 1986 World Cross Country? How did Kenyans and Ethiopians dominate by so much back then? What doping existed then? According to your fellow colleague Coevett, EPO wouldn't be widely available until 1992, and the only ones connected enough would be perhaps Aouita and the Spanish.
Why didn't doping help the Russians and Chinese and Indians, apart from the occasional Russian and Chinese women in the shorter distance events?
So now you are claiming that EPO is the only ped that works??
Yes RekRunner, 1987 world cross country championships was the year Kenya really proved that they have a genetic advantage over the rest of the world. Here are the top 3 kenyans from that year (finished 1,2,5) 1 : John Ngugi - banned for refusing to take out of competition test. 2 : Paul Kipkoech - younger brother banned for EPO positive. 3 : Some Muge - father of Mathew Kisorio, banned for testing positive for steroids at the 2012 world championships (also claimed that there was state sponsored doping in Kenya).
You always play with the informations. Ngugi wasn't banned he refused to do the test after being quadruple world cross country champion.
As for Aouita, AFAIK there is no link between him and Spain. He was exclusively training in Morocco and in one year, he brought with him a new Olympic Champion of 10000m in 1988 by instructing his training methods
If Aouita was in this race of Sydney Maree, he would have broken 3:29 back in 1985.
Let's recall Sydney Maree as he pours on the pace round a rather damp track on a mission and slightly misses out on Said Aouita's just two-day-old WR (3:29.46) in a sizzling 3:29.77 (AR), third man ever to break 3:30, over the men's 1500m in Cologne in late August 1985 pic.twitter.com/uH6c2bOQ2r
Rekrunner and the other racial science apologists - only 2% of university professors in the USA are Afro-American. Is it equally obvious to you that this is 'proof' that Afro-Americans are less intelligent than other races?
Just to be clear - I do not believe this myself. Just wondering how you can objectively apply different rules of logic here.
I wouldn't necessarily correlate a USA university with intelligence. Many intelligent people are not USA university professors.
I would use the same rules of logic. It is the different inputs that would lead to different outputs, using the same rules of logic.