NXN 2024 - The Way Too Early Preview - BOYS

Huh? CBA lineup is where close to Niwot or Herriman

yes, CBA returning lineup is much better then Herriman or Niwot

He probably thinks that because CBA returns 8:43, 9:14, 9:14, 9:16, 9:22. And all 5 of them ran between 4:12 and 4:16 in the 1600.

But Herriman returns 3 NXN scorers and a 9:12 3200 guy. They also have a 9:07 3200 transfer coming in. That’s 5 studs already. Not to mention that they have another 9:23 2-mile transfer coming in too

I am not a Niwot or Herriman fan. but I feel like CBA 3200 times aren’t good enough to be competitive with those teams.

CBA would need to return 6-7 guys who can all break 9 minutes in the 2 mile to be competitive. CBA returns 8:43, 9:14, 9:14, 9:16, 9:22, 9:24. The 5 returners would need to make big jumps next season.

Herriman and Niwot returners haven’t shown what they were capable of on the track. They were definitely running better in the cross country season. I have Herriman returning: 8:58, 8:59, 9:01, 9:04, 9:05, 9:11. (Using xc races and converting them with track 3200 times)

I also think Niwot has a slight advantage over Herriman.

To Clarify - these are just my conversions. I am not saying they are accurate but we are talking about CROSS COUNTRY so the CROSS COUNTRY times are more relevant than the Cba 3200 times.

Herriman -
Jonah Tang - 15:42 NXN 2023 course - 8:53 3200 conversion

Micah Tang - 14:19 Woodbridge 2023 course - 8:59 3200 conversion

Tayshaun Ofomo - 15:50 NXN 2023 course - 8:59 3200 conversion

Jackson Spencer 9:06 3200 at Arcadia

Edward Fuller 9:19 at Utah state which converted to 9:08 3200

Noah Manhwaring 9:12 3200 at Arcadia

I think you meant Cooper Tripp like it was mentioned in the UT transfer rule thread

And they also bring in a 9:21 3200 transfer from San Clemente. That makes them 7-deep. Wouldn’t be surprised if they podium

It’s also worth noting that some 3200 / 1600 times that American Fork, Herriman, and Niwot ran were at altitude

NXN boys race is not what anyone converting these times understands. Unless there is an extreme outlier (NP, LV), there are several teams that can win. Here are some of the issues that a coach must prepare a team for and issues a team must navigate:

- Qualifying - Regions qualify at different times, some 3 weeks earlier, others 2 and some the week before. Some teams can qualify easily, others have to go to the wall to qualify. Some teams face serious weather changes and others have to fly across the country. Every region and team have disadvantages and advantages. How a coach and team handles those challenges reflects greatly on NXN.

- Conditions at NXN - The race is fair, barring major issues at the starting line. Everyone runs on the same course. However, everyone has to stay on their feet. If one athletes slips, falls, or trips over others falling, he will lose 20+ spots. Kids can do everything right and suffer from that. It is nearly impossible to fully prepare an athlete for conditions at NXN.

- Illness - Coaches have to prepare for illness but it is impossible to avoid. If a team is deep, they may be able to minimize this issue. Unfortunately, illness travels in packs. 2 years ago, Great Oak struggled in October. Apparently they had illness traveling through the team. By NXN, they were rolling. CBA and SLC apparently got slammed right before NXN.

I could go on and on.

My point is simple - anyone can look at 3200 times or convert XC times/altitude times (why don't Texas and Florida kids get humidity conversions, BTW), but the race is so much different than what most kids have done before. Last year, Soles hit really good races at NXN. He fixed some issues his team had at NXR, minimized an illness and kept kids on their feet. He's pretty good at that but even the best cannot be perfect at NXN every year. He'd be the first to tell you that he had teams perform poorly at NXN in the past.

SO It looks like there a few really good teams in Herriman, Belen Jesuit, Niwot, AF, CBA, SLC...many of the usual suspects. They will race nutty times in September-November. They will be in the conversation all fall.

What happens in December is a whole different set of issues.

These are the reasons why it’s advantageous to have a #6 / 7 on the team, versus just 5 (how many it takes to score).

If someone gets sick or injured or falls, a 6th man can step up and score for them well. Last year, Herriman’s #1 guy was sick come NXN so he was far away from scoring. But a person who didn’t always score stepped up and scored at NXN well enough to get the title

Skyline (not Skyridge, but Skyline) returns 4:19, 4:19, 4:23, 4:23, 4:35, 4:37, 4:39

Edward Fuller is not going to herriman

Southwest boys teams (Herriman, Niwot, and American Fork) could go 1-2-3 at NXN. Mountain View UT probably top 10 too

Predictions for NXR Southwest boys

1. Herriman UT (won NXN and returns 3 scorers from that race, a 186 speed rating guy at RunningLane, and 2 more elite transfers. This should be enough for them to be #1 in the region / nation)

2. Niwot CO (Took 5th at NXN and losing no one from the team. Very solid depth even beyond their top 7)

3. American Fork UT (loses 6 NXN participants, but they still return 6 guys who ran a 9:51 or faster in the 3200. Also another transfer (9:21) coming in from San Clemente. Also great coaching staff)

4. Mountain View UT (took 10th at NXR in a “rebuilding” year after losing 4 seniors from the NXN 2022 squad. Should be able to return at NXN with almost their entire team back, and having a strong 1&2 in Steadman and Sohler).

5. Cheyenne Mountain CO (Returning most of their team from the NXR squad and have 2 low sticks - Collins and LeRoux. This is no 2021 CM team but they will have a best team they have had since then).

6. Coronado CO (Returns a solid group of top 4, but they need to have a 5th man step up.)

7. Valor Christian CO (will be getting a new coach this fall. Returns everyone except for Eike but he was their #1).

8. Riverton UT (Placed 9th at NXN last year. Coach recently took a job at Snow College, so we will see how this coaching transition goes. They return 6 sub-10s though.)

9. Mountain Vista CO (took 14th at NXR last year, which is not as high as previous years, but they return a solid top 3 (Anderson, Adams, Wachter). They have a low stick (Anderson) who can compete with the best. They usually peak at the end of the season, and every year, they have people come out of nowhere and score for them. They always have good depth. Good coaching as well)

10. Skyridge UT (Won RunningLane last year and returns 4 sub-10 guys (would have been 5, but 1 person is transferring to Herriman). Needs a 5th runner to step)

california mid

Where does the Jesuit CA 2015 team fit into this? Third in the CA state meet merge, didn’t make NXN, and the CA teams that did make it that year took 1st and 3rd there

The team time for jesuit ca 2015 at woodward park is much slower than what oakdale ran in 2023. The teams that beat oakdale didn't place very high but maybe that's because everyone was just good that year. I think 2015 and a lot of the 20xx years were soft years and 2023 was very stacked

Was 2015 Madera South faster than Jesuit, but Jesuit got them in the merge similar to GO and Oakdale this year?

Regardless, I guess the fastest team to miss out on NXN is:

2015 Jesuit/Madera South team until 2019

2019 Jesuit until 2023

2023 Oakdale until ?

Sucks to see the NorCal teams be consistently left out since the high schools are so much smaller on average...

just thinking, Viewmont has a ridiculously strong group of seniors incoming this year, and Maple Mountain might have a good group coming up as well. Those two might knock out a couple of the 7, 8, 9, 10 spots for nxr sw