Down goes the Dow

I am still just astonished that the Dow is not *considerably* lower.

I realize that a stock is worth whatever people think it's worth--I get that. But what's happening, that makes people think the overal market is/ought to be at the current level? I don't understand.

It takes years for people to adjust to an unpopular reality. AIDS, the Depression, etc.

present, MBA wrote:

I am still just astonished that the Dow is not *considerably* lower.

I realize that a stock is worth whatever people think it's worth--I get that. But what's happening, that makes people think the overal market is/ought to be at the current level? I don't understand.

Technically oversold conditions lead to large rallies. Investment firms raise price targets to match moves and lure in buyers. Overbought conditions return, economic reality hits, market re-test lows. That is why the current move is likely a “sucker’s rally.” Your intuition is correct.

*overall

And thanks, both. I don't pretend to have any great insight into the markets and can miss things that are obvious to others.

It's just that, from my vantage in NYC, it seems like U.S. (shoot, the world's) business is going to decline for a *long* time before it rebounds--and I'm kind of surprised the markets don't reflect that.

I could be wrong, of course.

wondering wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

So you attacked an assertion I never made?

Surely you can copy and paste my assertion that one cannot buy stock at 9 AM on Monday to prove me wrong?

Here you go.

Giles Corey wrote:

Do you think you can wait until 9:00 AM monday morn and see how Euro markets and futures have done and then out in an order to take advantage of what happened over the week-end?

No.

Do you guys really not know this?

Oh, snap!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No you have eaten every post. Just wait until we are at 1,800, my bet is you will post no more.

You have to keep in mind that the market loves it when lots of regular folk are out of work

Oh, snap! wrote:

wondering wrote:

Here you go.

Oh, snap!

So you cannot tell the difference between stating the market cannot be gamed buy waiting until Monday just before opening and one cannot buy stock Monday at 9:00 AM.

Perhaps you are just trolling but I am getting the impression you guys really are that stupid

Market down.

Tesla up.

Again

Unemployment reached 25% in the Depression. Initially there was some joy in the business class about that, but failure to react made it a long, slow decline.

present, MBA wrote:

*overall

And thanks, both. I don't pretend to have any great insight into the markets and can miss things that are obvious to others.

It's just that, from my vantage in NYC, it seems like U.S. (shoot, the world's) business is going to decline for a *long* time before it rebounds--and I'm kind of surprised the markets don't reflect that.

I could be wrong, of course.

*No, “oversold,” a condition were selling in stocks reaches exhaustion, the opposite of overbought.

Sorry, saw your “overal” after the fact.

present, MBA wrote:

It's just that, from my vantage in NYC, it seems like U.S. (shoot, the world's) business is going to decline for a *long* time before it rebounds--and I'm kind of surprised the markets don't reflect that.

I could be wrong, of course.

You are not wrong. The markets are forward looking and understand it will rebound. It always does.

Markets were not forward looking in March 2000 or October 2007. That is the biggest piece of crap repeatedly passed by gullible investors.

J. Hardy wrote:

You are not wrong. The markets are forward looking and understand it will rebound. It always does.

Stock prices are determined by how much someone is willing to pay. Buyers do not purchase because they believe the stock will lose value. Rather they purchase a stock that they believe will increase in value....in the future.

The yesterday buyer of JC Penny stock forward looked right in to bankruptcy where the equity value is likely zero. Unfortunately more companies to follow regardless of what the Fed does or how forward looking you believe the market is.

I did not say their vision is always accurate. Obviously it isn’t. That does not change the fact that the market is priced according to what is expected.

J. Hardy wrote:

I did not say their vision is always accurate. Obviously it isn’t. That does not change the fact that the market is priced according to what is expected.

OK, then you should agree the “market is forward looking” is a meaningless statement.

To me, most often it seems like the stock Market looks forward a good amount. Obviously unemployment is a lagging signal, but by the time unemployment has peaked often times the stock market is well on its way back up...

https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Unemployment-chart/