rekrunner wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
The critical failure in your argument is that all understanding of the nature of doping necessarily amounts to speculation about what is probable. The irrefutable proof of that is we know that actual doping greatly exceeds the number of those caught - as much as by 30 or 40 times. The problem of doping therefore has to be greater than any confirmed finding. Yet your arguments have restricted you to insisting that actual doping cannot be claimed for anything other than a confirmed violation. If that was the true extent of doping your argument would be valid. But it isn't valid - for the reason I indicated above; official findings barely scratch the surface of actual doping - and looking beneath the surface is what you refuse to do. The irony is that your own views, formed as they are on necessarily incomplete data, are subject to the same condition that you reject in others, which is they are accompanied by speculation about what is probable. Your conclusions are still speculation, but they ignore anything which could address the gap between confirmed doping and the estimates of its actual incidence. Really, your position is little more than if you can't see or you choose not to see the possible extent of the problem it doesn't exist.
This is not my argument.
What is the probability then, given a whereabouts failure violation? 60-70% clean/30-40% dirty?
Whatever you respond will most probably be wrong, as it is a response about probabilities based on no data or knowledge, but rather your personal speculation, which I filter out.
My view of whereabouts failures is based on the definition provided by WADA. My view is also that the data is incomplete, and therefore inconclusive. I do not rely on incomplete data to form conclusions, but rather my conclusion is that the data is incomplete.
Of course the problem exists, but to what extent does it exist in "whereabouts failures"?
If you provide an answer that is not your own personal world view without basis, I would be interested.
Since your conclusion is that the data is incomplete - that is your "conclusion". You have nothing to add to that. You do not see a "whereabouts failure" as signalling anything but itself.
But what you cannot square your inconclusive "conclusion" with is the information we reliably have that actual doping far exceeds any data of violations, whether they be positive tests or whereabouts failures. You are unable to see a connection between whereabouts failures and the evidence they afford as a manifestation of the wider incidence of doping in the sport, when everything we know about doping suggests they are part of the same picture. You have consigned these issues to different universes, when they are part of the same worldly phenomenon. You are like one who sees the trunk of an elephant but refuses to acknowledge what it is attached to.