Female hurdles are pretty short so dont expect huge gain in a pure 400m.
Sydney is my favorite athlete so i think she can WR in a pure 400m too but i dont she can do it right away, more like a year or two of focused clean 400m work.
At the risk of introducing FACTS into this opinion fest, the last time that Sydney ran both the 400H and the open 400 somewhat equally was 2018, when she ran 52.75/50.0. Clearly she is at minimum, a 48-low if not potentially a 47-high 400 runner. Bobby won't have her switch unless he believes she can run these times.
Agreed. She was consistently running 200s, 300s, and 400s as well as 400h in high school and into her first year at Kentucky. She ran 22.9/36.8/51.6 in high school with a 400h PB of 53.8, and then at Kentucky ran 22.3/36.1/50.0 with a 400h of 52.7. Now, you can make an argument her technique has improved from there, and maybe you would be correct. But you’re a fool if you don’t think she could run AT MINIMUM 21-high and 48.x right now. Personally based on her comments after the race, I’m inclined to believe this race was imperfect for her and she could run 50-low in the near future, putting her somewhere in the 47-high, 48-low range (and though it’s not often considered, I believe she could have medaled at 200 as well).
For world class runners, what should the conversion be? The women's times from the WC were about 4 seconds apart, and fairly equivalent performances historically (not sure how legit the 400m WR is, but that would make the difference more than 4.5 seconds). Since women's hurdles are shorter relative to the height difference of most men and women, meaning the flat/hurdles differential should be even bigger for the men, wouldn't that suggest an equivalent for 46.x guys like Warholm and Benjamin to sub-43 - or at least more conservatively, sub-44 putting them among medal contenders?
A lot depends on the efficiency of the athlete at hurdling. Sydney and Karsten as examples are just so clean on their hurdling technique that they barely slow on each hurdle. With other athletes you'll notice a distinct slowing of speed and momentum. Karsten has never dipped much below 45 for the 400m. If I recall he ran a 400m flat not long after his Olympic world record and was only a low 45. My feeling is Sydney could be quite similar and may only be capable of a low 49.
Has he ever taken the event seriously though. The training between the 2 events isn’t the same. If he was training for the 400 he would be incorporating more speed work and zero focus on hurdling technique. He would be practicing a different store pattern too.
For world class runners, what should the conversion be? The women's times from the WC were about 4 seconds apart, and fairly equivalent performances historically (not sure how legit the 400m WR is, but that would make the difference more than 4.5 seconds). Since women's hurdles are shorter relative to the height difference of most men and women, meaning the flat/hurdles differential should be even bigger for the men, wouldn't that suggest an equivalent for 46.x guys like Warholm and Benjamin to sub-43 - or at least more conservatively, sub-44 putting them among medal contenders?
A lot depends on the efficiency of the athlete at hurdling. Sydney and Karsten as examples are just so clean on their hurdling technique that they barely slow on each hurdle. With other athletes you'll notice a distinct slowing of speed and momentum. Karsten has never dipped much below 45 for the 400m. If I recall he ran a 400m flat not long after his Olympic world record and was only a low 45. My feeling is Sydney could be quite similar and may only be capable of a low 49.
That was a terrible performance by Karsten. None of the extremely few 400m flat races he has done in the past few years are representative of what he might have done in Tokyo if you removed the hurdles. The man ran 44.8 back in 2017, a year before breaking 48s in the hurdles.
At the risk of introducing FACTS into this opinion fest, the last time that Sydney ran both the 400H and the open 400 somewhat equally was 2018, when she ran 52.75/50.0. Clearly she is at minimum, a 48-low if not potentially a 47-high 400 runner.
To add ANALYSIS and ACCURACY to your facts, the 52.75/50.07 she ran as a college freshman was run using 15/16 steps between hurdles vs her current 14/15 steps which makes a big difference. In her 52.75 race she also chopped her steps several times and had mediocre hurdling technique.
Her freshman year her 400h was 2.68 slower than her 400. That difference has been reduced significantly down to about 1.80. Which means that the 50.68 she just ran minus 1.80 puts her in about 48.88 shape in a flat 400 right now.
She is still young and probably won't peak for a few more years, so if she focuses on the 400 flat for a few more years she should be able to knock a few tenths off of her current 48.88 shape.
She's never going to break the 47.60 world record, but she should be able to break the 48.70 American record.
At the risk of introducing FACTS into this opinion fest, the last time that Sydney ran both the 400H and the open 400 somewhat equally was 2018, when she ran 52.75/50.0. Clearly she is at minimum, a 48-low if not potentially a 47-high 400 runner. Bobby won't have her switch unless he believes she can run these times.
Sidney's hurdling efficiency must have improved since 2018, so I think the conversion to flat 400 will be less than 2.75.
For world class runners, what should the conversion be? The women's times from the WC were about 4 seconds apart, and fairly equivalent performances historically (not sure how legit the 400m WR is, but that would make the difference more than 4.5 seconds). Since women's hurdles are shorter relative to the height difference of most men and women, meaning the flat/hurdles differential should be even bigger for the men, wouldn't that suggest an equivalent for 46.x guys like Warholm and Benjamin to sub-43 - or at least more conservatively, sub-44 putting them among medal contenders?
The rule of thumb has always been 2 seconds; it could be 2.5 or 1.5 depending on your hurdling technique. In Syd's case, her hurdling has gotten so good that I would say subtract 1.5 for an estimate of what she could do in the flat 400 'right now'. I say 'right now' because there is a hurdling stride pattern in her leg's muscle memory that's not going to go away until she stops hurdling and runs more flat races for a period of time. If she really focused exclusively on the 400, she could run sub-48, I am pretty certain of that. (I would not be surprised to see Syd go after the American 400m record this year; in fact, I think that is already being negotiated for an event in mid-August.) She is in 48.70 shape right now.
For world class runners, what should the conversion be? The women's times from the WC were about 4 seconds apart, and fairly equivalent performances historically (not sure how legit the 400m WR is, but that would make the difference more than 4.5 seconds). Since women's hurdles are shorter relative to the height difference of most men and women, meaning the flat/hurdles differential should be even bigger for the men, wouldn't that suggest an equivalent for 46.x guys like Warholm and Benjamin to sub-43 - or at least more conservatively, sub-44 putting them among medal contenders?
The rule of thumb has always been 2 seconds; it could be 2.5 or 1.5 depending on your hurdling technique. In Syd's case, her hurdling has gotten so good that I would say subtract 1.5 for an estimate of what she could do in the flat 400 'right now'. I say 'right now' because there is a hurdling stride pattern in her leg's muscle memory that's not going to go away until she stops hurdling and runs more flat races for a period of time. If she really focused exclusively on the 400, she could run sub-48, I am pretty certain of that. (I would not be surprised to see Syd go after the American 400m record this year; in fact, I think that is already being negotiated for an event in mid-August.) She is in 48.70 shape right now.
At the risk of introducing FACTS into this opinion fest, the last time that Sydney ran both the 400H and the open 400 somewhat equally was 2018, when she ran 52.75/50.0. Clearly she is at minimum, a 48-low if not potentially a 47-high 400 runner.
To add ANALYSIS and ACCURACY to your facts, the 52.75/50.07 she ran as a college freshman was run using 15/16 steps between hurdles vs her current 14/15 steps which makes a big difference. In her 52.75 race she also chopped her steps several times and had mediocre hurdling technique.
Her freshman year her 400h was 2.68 slower than her 400. That difference has been reduced significantly down to about 1.80. Which means that the 50.68 she just ran minus 1.80 puts her in about 48.88 shape in a flat 400 right now.
She is still young and probably won't peak for a few more years, so if she focuses on the 400 flat for a few more years she should be able to knock a few tenths off of her current 48.88 shape.
She's never going to break the 47.60 world record, but she should be able to break the 48.70 American record.
One of the first things her new coach taught her was to hurdle with either leg. This new technique dramatically improved her performance and cut down on her need to chop steps. This is something Rai needs to learn. This is something Dos Santos is now doing.
A 47 is really far away from what anybody has been doing in the 400 since the Eastern Bloc dopers. That is quite a long way away off for her in my opinion. If Sydney really works hard on her 200m/100m speed and dedicates herself, she might be able to dip under 48. The record is so clearly doped, it’s a joke. It would be nice to see some of those old Soviet/East Germany records go away.
A 47 is really far away from what anybody has been doing in the 400 since the Eastern Bloc dopers. That is quite a long way away off for her in my opinion. If Sydney really works hard on her 200m/100m speed and dedicates herself, she might be able to dip under 48. The record is so clearly doped, it’s a joke. It would be nice to see some of those old Soviet/East Germany records go away.
I agree they need to be broken and that Sydney, now only 22, is The One to do it. I wouldn't be surprised if Bobby has that target for the coming seasons. He just needs to convince her that God wants for her to be the vessel against a communist-era dope record.
The only other obvious goal is sub-50 but given how clean she is running the sticks, she needs more 400 speed to do that. So sub-50/sub-47.6 are compatible goals for the next few years.
I hope the IAAF does a biomechanical analysis of this race, but I'm getting a rough estimate based on her cadence of about .26-.29 secs per step (with the slower times at the end of the race, obv). For the time she takes to complete a hurdle, I'm getting .47-.5 secs. Given a difference of about .21s per hurdle, a very rough estimate is a 2.1 second improvement. I'm assuming the larger step length from the hurdle is offset by the choppiness of the step immediately following that one - that and the fatigue from the hurdling. I think I have access to a 60p recording which should be easier to analyze than the rough youtube one I watched.
Interesting: Bol has the 300mh world best at 36.86 with 7 hurdles. SM ran 37.02 with 8 enroute.
For world class runners, what should the conversion be? The women's times from the WC were about 4 seconds apart, and fairly equivalent performances historically (not sure how legit the 400m WR is, but that would make the difference more than 4.5 seconds). Since women's hurdles are shorter relative to the height difference of most men and women, meaning the flat/hurdles differential should be even bigger for the men, wouldn't that suggest an equivalent for 46.x guys like Warholm and Benjamin to sub-43 - or at least more conservatively, sub-44 putting them among medal contenders?
She just has a minimal difference between the 400 open and hurdles.. Probably around 1.3 seconds.. Unless she breaks 48.75 in the 400 open then it's not a big deal. All of the fastest 400 runners run the 400 and not the 400 hurdles. Shaunae Millers 48.36 is the better run out of the two. She would have to break 50 in the 400 hurdles and run something like 49.75 to be able to run faster than 48.36 in the 400 open....../