Yeah it is me wrote:
Sadly, Galen Rupp has waited too long to become a marathoner. Alberto was not smart enough to realize that Galen never had a chance to medal at 5000m. Alberto has actually now admitted that Galen would have virtually no chance to medal at 5000m currently. Of course that is the reason they are going to do the 10,000m and marathon double in Rio. Galen is now past his prime as a runner, as he probably will never be in sub 26:55 shape again. Now as a marathoner, Galen once had the potential to run 2:06 or so. Galen will never run that fast now, as he has waited too long to become a marathoner. Galen's best years are behind him, and the field he defeated at the Olympic Trials was so mediocre that nobody would have been within half a lap of him if it had been a 10,000m race. The result is that nobody should expect much of Galen in Rio as he will be at best 6th in the 10,000m and no better than 9th in the marathon.
Re your first comment you are preaching to the choir here at LR. As soon as he finished the 5K in London there were many telling him "that's as good as it gets for you on the track, don't waste time - go earn some $ on the roads". Problem is, he might only be, say, a 2:06 guy at best, which would not turn too many heads in major marathons. We don't know. It was really tough to tell from the trials. Folks were saying it was "worth 2:05-2:06". I'm not so sure. Agree with the 10K prediction but I'll give him higher in the marathon with a 5th. If he had danced around at the finish like Meb I would be more confident of a medal - but he didn't.