Shoebacca wrote:
I think you are all forgetting one big factor about Hall that differentiates him from almost everyone mentioned in this thread. He was raised at altitude. It's not a coincidence that he's the fastest American-born half and full marathoner. We'd believe that plenty of Kenyan juniors could break 2:10, so why not Ryan Hall?
A junior is different than a high schooler. A junior could run a Fall marathon, aged 19, and if they turn 20 after 12/31 they are still 19. They may be 19 and 7 mos or 8 mos, but still a junior.
A HSer could run a marathon in the spring of senior yr, aged 17.75 to 18.25 and still be a high schooler. That age difference is a HUGE difference in maturity.
I suppose from the training standpoint they may be best off by trying this theoretical test in the Fall in a marathon like Chicago or Berlin or NYC, during or after XC season. But now you see why so few HSers attempt it. When would you do it? And for what? The truly talented are always chasing titles in XC, times in indoor, and records in outdoor.
Grandma's Marathon really offers the best shot at it for a HSer. But then you aren't a HSer anymore.
I don't believe that Kenyan Juniors break 2:10, they are not juniors. If any of them ever did they were doped up like the seniors. I don't believe that Ryan Hall could have run 2:10 much less the 2:09 that you say we should believe.
If he had that kind of ability at 17/18, he would have won FootLocker and run about 8:20-28 at least for 2 miles and he ran 8:55 for 3200m.
Frank Shorter ran 8:26 indoors in 1971, 1.5 years before he won the Munich Olympics and his marathon best was 2:12:51 (at Fukuoka that year). He was ranked #1 in the World that year.
He ran 8:27 indoors in 1976, 6 months before he was second in Montreal.and his marathon best was 2:10:30 (at Fukuoka in 1972). His best that year was 2:10:46 (at the Olympics). He was ranked #2 in the World that year.
He ran 8:27 indoors AGAIN in 1977. And his marathon best was still 2:10:30 from 1972, and he ran his all-time best in the 5k at 13:26 that year.
All three of his THREE-fastest 2 miles were run in San Diego in February indoors.
Could Ryan Hall have run 8:27y or 13:26 in HS? Obviously this comparison does not prove it (or prove anything) but if we had several Americans who had run 2:10 for the marathon and 3:43m and 8:55 (3200m) while concentrating on all of those distances, I would say you are right. But we don't.
How many Americans have even run under 2:10:59?
http://www.usatf.org/statistics/All-Time-Lists/MarathonMen.aspx(this is out of date but close enough)
Hall - 2:06:17
Morris - 2:09:32
Lawson - 2:09:35
Culpepper - 2:09:41
Ritz - 2:10:00
Petersen - 2:10:04
Salazar - 2:10:08
Sandoval - 2:10:20
Wells - 2:10:20
Pfeffer - 2:10:29
Shorter - 2:10:30
Gotcher - 2:10:36
Sell - 2:10:47
Lodwick - 2:10:54
Tabb - 2:10:54
Rodgers - 2:10:55
Hodge - 2:10:59
Eyestone - 2:10:59
So there are 13 men in all of American history who have a 2:10:XX best on a certified course (Ritz has since run 2:07). Take a HARD look at list and see if you don't think these guys were WAAAYY better distance runners in the year they ran 2:10 than Hall was as a senior?
Even the last guys on the list were way better. Eyestone had won THREE NCAA titles 6 yrs earlier in 1984 and run 27:41 six yrs earlier. Bob Hodge ran 28:24 and 28:29 for a track 10k (albeit in 1984 and 1987).
Hall was nowhere near this ability.