I 100% stand by what I wrote. There is ZERO reason to think he'll break 3:30 other than the fact he trains with Farah.Let me take a few of these counter points 1 by 1.
No, it's not illogical to think that having a 10,000 runner train with 1500 runners that he will improve his 1500. What is illogical is to think he'll become world class at the event. Totally illogical.
How many 3:29s have the 1500 specialists above run? Zero.
Does the reverse work? When is Centro going to run 26 for 10k.
Great so he can run with some top US collegians at 1500. What does that have to do with running 3:29 as people are speculating about?
He ran with some good guys at 1500. That doesn't make him or them 329 guys.
Yet everyone says he's improved so much at 10,000 because he worked on his speed so much in HS/college and was relatively low-mileage. You can't have it both ways.
How many have tried to do it?
I can't answer that one for you. I wondered that myself but Centro pretty much had a zero of an indoor season so I'm assuming he wasn't in shape.
I think Rupp's success in 1500/miles is a bit over stated. He's done well in some time trials indoors when no one else is in shape that time of year. But what big competitive 1500/miles has he run and done well in? I really can't think of any.
He was a DNF after the 2012 Games in Lausanne, he was a DNF indoors this year as well at New Balance. Last year, he was 5th in the UK in 3:52.
Yes he's run 3:50 for the indoor mile time trial. But go read renato Canova's post from last month where he states that indoors is faster than outdoors. That very well could be true for rupp as during his indoor time trials, he's running with zero wind and running exactly one mile.
In a real race with a competive field, you have to run more than a mile.
Rupp's 3:50.92 indoor mile is probably very similar to the 3:52 mile he ran outdoors in his last competitive mile (5th last summer in Glasgow).
But let's say he runs that 3:50.92 again. Do you guys realize that 3:50 is a LONG WAY OFF Of 3:30? And Rupp's better suited for a mile than 1500.
A 3:29 is equivalent to 3:46. I'd be surprised if he can do anything better than a 3:50 equivalent for 1500 in a competitive field.
His 3:50.92 pb is equivalent to 3:33.8 for 1500. 3:32 will be GREAT for rupp. That's doable. 3:29 no chance.