at arcadia, baxter ran in lane 2 for much of the race staying clear of any trouble. she was probably in the group for 2 laps or so. the other 6 laps she was running into the wind leading or sharing the lead on the outside, and was only on the rail the last 2 laps, maybe. she ran a good deal further than 3200 to stay out of trouble, and could afford to do so because she was the class of the field.
cain ran her fast times among others of like ability, where she could sit in the pack and run closer to the rail.
you can't take anything away from cain, her performances have been brilliant. that being said, the discrepancy between their two times is deceiving due to the conditions in which they ran their times.
alan webb
4/14/01 Arcadia: HS runners only: 4:01.81
5/27/01 Eugene: World class field: 3:53.43
converted to two miles, those times are equivalent to 8:42.3 and 8:24.2. just over 6 weeks a part.
it would be very difficult for baxter to dispatch cain over 3200m and i don't see it happening. but their times would be much closer to one another in a HS runner only contest, or if baxter were to jump into a world class field with cain in it as well. guessing cain over baxter by 10 seconds tops.
baxter does not need to improve from where her fitness is, so it really doesn't matter if she is running similar times to last year. if she can sustain her current fitness through college she will have some great results while getting a free education. whether or not she ends up running internationally has little meaning in comparison to the avenues running has already opened up for her.