Interesting question. I don’t have an answer, and probably my idea about top performance is very far from your idea.
Anyway, I want to give you some statistical info, so you can decide what International level does mean.
1- In the all-time lists, at the end of last year the “cheater” Nixon Cherutich, with 2:14:45, was in position… 3311 ! Can he be considered an “international” athlete ? I don’t think so. He is an amateur, and runs 2:14 because Kenyan amateurs run 2:14. Does this fact be connected with “widespread” doping in Kenya ? I really don’t think, also because this amateur lives the most part of the year in US, and doesn’t have any link with Kenyan ambience.
2- In the all-time list, till now there are 1528 athletes under 2:12:00. Can be 2:12:00 considered an international performance ? Of course no, since there is no organizer in the World paying a ticket to a Kenyan running 2:12 for going in any competition.
3- Always in the all-time lists, till now we have the following situation :
athletes under 2:11:00 : 1040
athletes under 2:10:00 : 684
athletes under 2:09:00 : 452
athletes under 2:08:00 : 251
athletes under 2:07:00 : 123
athletes under 2:06:00 : 50
athletes under 2:05:00 : 26
athletes under 2:04:00 : 5
4- About last year only, we had the following situation :
Athletes under 2:05:00 : 11 (7 from Ethiopia + 4 from Kenya)
Athletes under 2:06:00 : 23 (12 from Ethiopia + 11 from Kenya)
Athletes under 2:07:00 : 43 (23 from Kenya + 20 from Ethiopia)
Athletes under 2:08:00 : 79 (44 from Kenya + 28 from Ethiopia, 1 from US)
Athletes under 2:09:00 : 123 (71 from Kenya + 33 from Ethiopia + 5 from Japan + 1 from US)
Athletes under 2:10:00 : 174 (100 from Kenya + 40 from Ethiopia + 9 from Japan + 4 from US)
Now, I want to show you the equivalence, in the list 2012, between the positions of the above athletes and the performances in other events (100m, 400m, 800m, 3000 steeple, 110 hs, HJ, SP, HT) giving the same position :
11th : 9.94 – 44.80 – 1:43.74 – 8:10.55 – 13.14 – 2.32 – 21.11 – 79.44
23rd : 10.02 – 45.01 – 1:44.65 – 8:17.85 – 13.31 – 2.31 – 20.69 – 78.28
43rd : 10.09 – 45.30 – 1:45.19 – 8:22.70 – 13.42 – 2.27 – 20.22 – 76.15
79th : 10.18 – 45.61 – 1:46.10 – 8:29.03 – 13.57 – 2.24 – 19.71 – 72.96
123rd : 10.23 – 45.93 – 1:46.74 – 8:33.98 – 13.72 – 2.21 – 19.23 – 69.90
174th : 10.28 – 46.15 – 1:47.27 – 8:39.29 – 13.83 – 2.20 – 18.66 – 67.26
And after this, I ask you : in your mind, being in US, do you think a sprinter running 10.18, a 400m runner able to do 45.61, a hurdler for 13.57, a High Jumper for 2.24, can be considered athlete of international level ? How many athletes from College are able to obtain these performances ?
And, if you are from Russia, do you think 72.96 in HT can be considered an interesting performance ?
Remaining in middle distances, is it for you a performance of international level to run 800m in 1:46.10 (how many specialists you have, able to run so fast ?) or steeple in 8:29.03 (very far from Jager) ?
Do you know these athletes NEVER have any chance to be accepted in any meeting, because their level is too far from the top ? And all these athletes are at the same level of marathon runners under 2:08:00.
In Kenya, several times we have athletes coming from a village without any background, joining a camp where there is some strong athlete from their village. If they have talent, after 6 months of training are able to run 30 km fast with the champion, after one year are ready for running 2:06:00 in their first competition ever.
This fact comes from the following points :
1. They have a good talent (not all, many don’t have), not yet a GREAT talent. For running one time between 2:05 and 2:07, if you are Kenyan you don’t need great talent, only GOOD talent. Who has great talent has the ability in lasting and winning big races for long time, who has good talent can reach casualy one very good performance, and after remains at medium level, for short time.
2. They don’t have mental limits. When they go in a camp, the only athletics they know is what happens in the camp. So, hard training as normal rule, fast long run as normal system, very tough fartlek as classic type of workout. And no fright about running fast in competition : in Dubai, with a split of 1:02:39 at HM, 23 athletes were still together…
3. They don’t have other things to do. In their camps, the only thing is running, eating and sleeping, for recovering hard training
I remember, time ago, there was a post where some idiot wrote “under 2:12 everybody is doped”. Of course, with this mentality it’s difficult to produce good marathon runners.
I had many Italians running under 2:12, with very little speed. One of them, Nicola Ciavarella, ran 2:11:22 when 34 years old, training once per day because worker in a school, having 30:22 of PB in 10000m.
So, when I see athletes with 28:30 of PB looking at 2:12, I can only argue they don’t know anything about the training principles for marathon.
The first step is to think of times as 2:07 or less like normal performances, if there is good talent.
And this is the reason because every year there are more athletes from Europe (and I hope from US too) coming Kenya and particularly Iten. The real secret is to make normal in the mind what before what not possible. This starts from the volume and the intensity of training, and after can be transferred to the mentality in the competition.
Till when the only argument is the doping of other athletes, never you can produce a good marathon runner , and its not a case that the more advanced specialists (as Galen Rupp) are part of some group with aggressive mentality in training and in competition.