Avocado's Number wrote:
orbitboy wrote:2:05 in New York & no rabbits. That trumps a time trial WR to me, if we're talking about a predictor for who would do best in a championship-style race.
I don't disagree with this, but I think that Athletics Kenya is more concerned about who is currently healthy and fit. G. Mutai was having nagging foot problems earlier this year, and his training was apparently not going very well. His DNF at Boston didn't do much to allay concerns, despite suggestions that he simply had problems with heat and hydration. He did run a strong 10K a couple of weeks ago, but I'm not sure that he's done enough to demonstrate his fitness for the Olympic marathon.
Unlike a lot of people who post on this site, I respect the ability of AK's selection committee to come up with the best team from among the various candidates. The committee is knowledgeable about marathoning, and very familiar with the candidates and their recent training, health, fitness, and suitability for the particular race and likely conditions. E. Mutai, Makau, and G. Mutai are all terrific athletes who have had their ups and downs. (This year, unfortunately, they've all had some major downs.) I'm pretty confident that AK will make a reasonable choice.
They know far better than I, no doubt about that.