How long would the line be at the Nairobi airport if we said we had $6,200 to anyone that could run 8:48 for 2 miles?

I think malmo is most plausible (ironically he is the one using basic game theory and not really sure kartelite is alluding to). But a caveat should be added. I'm not sure who are all the big players in indoor 15-5k currently, but if you offered this bet in 1997-8 Komen would have taken it (unless he thought the $4000 or so net payoff was trivially low and had a better offer in Europe, or bigger expected payoff from continuing to train for the summer). If the current Kenyan no. 1 is clear of the no. 2, game theory could be invoked to predict that he'd pay for the flight.

But I suspect kartelite has something to say, as I saw that username on the testmagic econphd forum and doubt that was a coincidence.

malmo wrote:

Cheapest round trip Nairobi to NYC is about $1200. Expenses in NYC for two nights will run you about $400 (if you are cheap and/or resourceful). Since only one person can win the $6200, and it is unknown how many others might make it to the starting line with equal or better credentials than you, I'd say the only way to win this game is not to play.

How'd I do, Rojo?

Badly.

While you're right that it would be a bad investment for most 8:4x 2-milers to make the trip, I think you're missing a pretty fundamental fact about Kenyan runners, particular those below the top tier:

Everyone believes to the pit of their soul that they can win. Every single person, in every single race.

Of course, there's some hyperbole in that statement, but I guarantee most of the teenaged Kenyan runners I've met would beg, borrow and steal to get on that plane, even if Bernard Lagat was in the race and the prize money stopped after #1.

malmo wrote:

Do you really think that this is a viable game to play?

Nope. I don't. But many Kenyan runners would thumb a ride to Jomo Kenyatta International nonetheless.

Kenyan XC nationals are in two weeks. I promise you, dozens of runners who didn't even qualify and aren't in the race will come to Nairobi on the near-zero chance that they will somehow sneak in, beat Ebuya and become the next megastar at World XC?

It's not unlike people trying to make it in Hollywood by hustling in auditions and hoping to get discovered at parties, even when every role is decided behind closed doors. Logic just doesn't always play.

malmo wrote:

You ride the short bus don't you?

oh my. you don't think your whole act is cool, do you? people respect humbleness more than attention-grabbing nitpicking.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

It's not unlike people trying to make it in Hollywood by hustling in auditions and hoping to get discovered at parties, even when every role is decided behind closed doors. Logic just doesn't always play.

Really? Do people risk a year's salary hoping to get discovered at Hollywood parties?

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

It's not unlike people trying to make it in Hollywood by hustling in auditions and hoping to get discovered at parties, even when every role is decided behind closed doors. Logic just doesn't always play.

malmo wrote:

Really? Do people risk a year's salary hoping to get discovered at Hollywood parties?

I'm not sure what this has to do with the price of tea in Kenya, but yes, I think it's safe to say that for many people it is not a financially savvy move to work part-time in the hospitality industry just to live in the right city and optimize time available for auditions, networking, etc.

But that's not really the point. The point is that game theory based on psychological studies of 20th century US undergrads has little value in extrapolation to 8:4x Kenyan two-milers living on a buck a day.

Slice it however you like. The airport would be absolutely packed.

You characterize a statement of your own as 'hyperbole' then immediately follow it up with another hyperbolic statement.

Most Kenyans teenagers you've met would beg, borrow or steal a year's salary to come to New York to run a race?

So what you're saying is that anyone who uses their brain to try to take a question that a 3rd ghrader might ask up to the level of one that "you might hear at a job interview" has nefarious motives?

Bingo.

We now have two people who recognize rojo's question, exactly as worded, to be utterly ridiculous. To change reality, "the winner of the race received $6200", to this, "anyone who shows up to the airport and runs 8:48 at the Garden would get $6200. I wonder how many Kenyans would show up" is taking things to the absurd extremity. It is not the kind of question one would get in a job interview, as rojo had said. It is the kind of question 3rd graders would ask.

I wonder how many Americans would show up to the Garden for free money, as well? "If everyone could win the lottery, I wonder how many people would buy a lottery ticket?" Hmmm, I wonder how long the lines at convenience stores and liquor marts would be? 500 deep?

When sticking with the actual prize scenario, that the winner would receive $6200 for running 8:48 or better, and must pay their way to New York, you now have the kind of question that one might hear in a job interview. You have the opportunity, but not guarantee, for a known prize award, that carries with it the risk of the average year's salary in Kenya. Would dirt poor Kenyans risk a years salary? If not, who would actually show up to the airport. What would the criteria for taking the risk? Personal wealth? Two mile PRs of 8:30? 8:20? 8:15?

Now for the Garden track itself. I realize that a lot fewer athletes get to run in the Garden than in years past, but to equate an 8:48 two mile to an 8:30 on other tracks is beyond ridiculous. The track is slow, but not THAT slow.

**************Fun Factoid of the day: The Kenyan Parliament is one of the highest paid in the world. After tax income of $126,000 USD per year in a poor country where the average yearly income is $1600.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

I'm not sure what this has to do with the price of tea in Kenya, but yes, I think it's safe to say that for many people it is not a financially savvy move to work part-time in the hospitality industry just to live in the right city and optimize time available for auditions, networking, etc.

But that's not really the point. The point is that game theory based on psychological studies of 20th century US undergrads has little value in extrapolation to 8:4x Kenyan two-milers living on a buck a day.

Slice it however you like. The airport would be absolutely packed.

Yet you think that Kenyans who live on a buck a day have the resources to pay $1200 + lodging for a round trip to NYC?

You aren't going to be getting rojo's question right in that job interview.

malmo wrote:

Yet you think that Kenyans who live on a buck a day have the resources to pay $1200 + lodging for a round trip to NYC?

Of course the teenagers (and 30-somethings, frankly) I've met running in Kenya don't have money for trans-Atlantic airfare and a Manhattan hotel room. Don't be obtuse.

You are so comically behind the curve here, pal. When your posts have to dissect multiple people slamming you, you need to step back and consider that YOU have missed the point. As Rojo himself pointed out.

malmo wrote:

Most Kenyans teenagers you've met would beg, borrow or steal a year's salary to come to New York to run a race?

1. The vast majority of Kenyan teenagers I've met, like the vast majority of Kenyans, don't run at all.

2. It is a well-known figure of speech, genius. To reply to your stupid question with an obvious answer, though, most Kenyan teenagers in the Rift Valley don't have $2000 saved in their entire social network.

Someday you should spend 8 hours in a van packed to the gills with Kenyan runners going over dirt roads to run a race with not a dime of prize money, but the theoretical possibility of an agent being among the onlookers. It will open your eyes. I respect your achievements, but it doesn't sound like you know much about D-list Kenyan runners in 2011. Aside for your endless semantic rambling, Rojo's obvious point stands that there is (a) and endless supply of Kenyans with this level of talent and (b) and endless desire among these Kenyans to harness it to make a living.

Without the limiting step inherent in the need to go through agents to get in the race, yes, the airport would be packed. Comparing to US lotteries is useless. No agent stands between you and the ticket counter.

Lol, what have we done wrong that we get dragged through the mud day in and day out on this site. We Kenyans have become a measuring stick for all the stupid on this site. Some of you are commenting as if we are beggars. Whatever happen to talent, hard work and dedication to the sport. Is it ok if we get paid once in a while for our sweat? Why should we be the victims of our talents? Sad.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

malmo wrote:

Yet you think that Kenyans who live on a buck a day have the resources to pay $1200 + lodging for a round trip to NYC?

Of course the teenagers (and 30-somethings, frankly) I've met running in Kenya don't have money for trans-Atlantic airfare and a Manhattan hotel room. Don't be obtuse.

You are so comically behind the curve here, pal. When your posts have to dissect multiple people slamming you, you need to step back and consider that YOU have missed the point. As Rojo himself pointed out.

Rojo himself clarified what he meant:

I was wondering how many Kenyans could run an 848 in the Garden if we covered their expenses and paid them $6200 (all of them not just the winner).

He even stipulated that expenses would be included, so what on earth does paying $1200 + lodging have to do with anything?

Is it a basic question? Yes. Is it a stupid question? No. It's not any more trivial than "how many men will qualify for the 2012 USOT in the marathon?" I'm not sure why you have to be so condescending, not everyone here was applying for positions at McKinsey as a 9-year-old like yourself.

And as has been pointed out, even if only the winner is paid, if there is just one runner who has a reasonable chance of running 8:48 (probability of winning more than compensates for the opportunity cost), then at least one person will be on the plane.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

Of course the teenagers (and 30-somethings, frankly) I've met running in Kenya don't have money for trans-Atlantic airfare and a Manhattan hotel room. Don't be obtuse.

You are so comically behind the curve here, pal. When your posts have to dissect multiple people slamming you, you need to step back and consider that YOU have missed the point. As Rojo himself pointed out.

I haven't missed any point, nor am I being obtuse or engaging in semantics. It's real simple -- Rojo's question was what one would expect from a 3rd grader (or stoner at a Phish concert). He even linked it to a "an interview question" for a job interview, which it doesn't come anywhere close. And you don't see the absurdity of his question at all? You are NOT the smartest letsrunner.

Do we know that there are a lot of Kenyans who could run 8:48? DUH? There are a lot of AMERICANS would could do it as well. Saying, "if i ran around Eldoret or Iten with checks for $6200 and free travel and expenses to and from NYC, do you think anyone would take me up on it, isn't an intellectual exercise, it is silliness.

My point is simple - come up with a ridiculous hypothetical and people will point it out, just as I did with the ridiculous Lottery hypothetical. Who wouldn't show up for free money with no risk?

Yet you seem to want to chase your tail on this topic and pretend that Rojo has a fecund point?

kartelite wrote:

And as has been pointed out, even if only the winner is paid, if there is just one runner who has a reasonable chance of running 8:48 (probability of winning more than compensates for the opportunity cost), then at least one person will be on the plane.

On probability this is where you are wrong. You don't know what the payout ratio is when you purchase that ticket FOR A YEARS SALARY. The only reason to get on that plane is for reasons extraneous to the opportunity cost, such as, other races lined up, tourism, school, work, business, or visiting friends.

Even if you are of the rarified talent (both athletically and probability wise) that you handicap yourself has being able to win greater than 25.8% of the time, giving you the comfort and security of Wall Street's highly fallible "theoretical edge", you need to be able to replicate that bet many times over before you are certain to actually realize that edge. If you have 4 runners who show up with exactly the same chance of winning (skill level), and you could replicate that race over and over, your theoretical return would be so small you couldn't buy a hot dog on 34th street with it.

Again, 1) rojo's question of how many Kenyans could run 8:48 in the Garden if they were paid $6200 to run an 8:48 2 mile is silly. 2) my alteration to the question to make it something worthy of discussion -- "job interview discussion, according to rojo -- makes it clear that the only reason why anyone should bet a years salary in an attempt to quadruple their risk is if they were at such a level that they could guarantee the win, which means that they would be taking a paycut from their normal scale.

malmo wrote:

Even if you are of the rarified talent (both athletically and probability wise) that you handicap yourself has being able to win greater than 25.8% of the time, giving you the comfort and security of Wall Street's highly fallible "theoretical edge", you need to be able to replicate that bet many times over before you are certain to actually realize that edge. If you have 4 runners who show up with exactly the same chance of winning (skill level), and you could replicate that race over and over, your theoretical return would be so small you couldn't buy a hot dog on 34th street with it.

Look, genius. If you're an 8:35 guy but there are already 4 runners equal or better than you, then you don't get on the plane. Maybe the 4th guy, seeing as there were 3 fast guys in front of him, doesn't either. Same for the 2nd and 3rd guys, perhaps. BUT THAT FIRST GUY, with an easy $6200 to win, will line up when he sees no one going to race. Maybe when Abraham Chebii gets in line, he'll decide to get out of line. But Chebii's still in line. That's our one person, at least. You're so obtuse. I don't know what you're referring to Wall Street about.

transmara wrote:

Lol, what have we done wrong that we get dragged through the mud day in and day out on this site. We Kenyans have become a measuring stick for all the stupid on this site. Some of you are commenting as if we are beggars. Whatever happen to talent, hard work and dedication to the sport. Is it ok if we get paid once in a while for our sweat? Why should we be the victims of our talents? Sad.

Who is dragging you or your countrymen through the mud? You have many talented, hardworking and dedicated people in Kenya. It is also a very impoverished country by just about any metric.

The only people from your country who are being indicted are your politicians, who sit right at the top when it comes to personal greed and graft.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

I'm not sure what this has to do with the price of tea in Kenya,

Tea in Kenya is really cheap, and usually offered for free anytime you visit someone. They send the good stuff overseas.

malmo wrote:

Rojo's question was what one would expect from a 3rd grader (or stoner at a Phish concert).

What if, like, all the 8:48 Kenyan 2-milers could fit on the thumbnail of a giant who's part of another universe?

Is there only one plane going from Nairobi to NYC? Are there not athletes already in in New York, Europe, Asia, Oceania, or other African countries who could figure into the equation? Isn't Chebii humself a rare winner in races (winning percentage less than 10%), and has besides, he could make more money running races that he wouldn't have to risk a dime of his own capital, couldn't he? You would have to climb a lot higher on the hierarchy tree than Chebii to find a Kenyan who might satisfy theoretical edge, wouldn't you agree? It seems it would be a bad bet for him to take.

katelite, you're on tilt. Push away from the table, eat, sleep, check out the Wayne Newton show, and don't return until you are composed.

Danke schoen.

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