Can Jason Rahm knock 27 minutes off his marathon PR to make the trials?

Belief and one mother of a taper, according to dumbass Nate Pennington.

This has to be a bunch of bullshit (or so I always tell myself only to be proven wrong time and again; I was wrong about Christine O'Donnell's candidacy being a joke, about the misspelled signs at teabagger rallies being planted there by clever satirists, etc.). How can anyone with even this guy's command of English be deluded enough to think on the basis of some test that he can go from 2:46 to 2:19? Do people just quit doing the math when the race grows sufficiently in distance? I mean, no one with a 17:00 5K PR years into his running career would talk in earnest about training harder being enough to get him to 13:50. So why this shit?

It's not always "bold" or "gutsy" or "avant-garde" or in any way admirable when mediocre people fool themselves into thinking they can bend reality by sheer dint of will. This guy is like a 9-11 "truther" or an anti-vaccine conspiracy nut if he's serious about his quixotic quest. As Carl Sagan said: "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright Brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown."

To me the most astounding thing about Rahm is that he has convinced not just himself but others, and that if you try to introduce reality to the scene, then you're the bad guy. Check out the comments to this post.

http://wpblogs.runningtimes.com/blogs/talktest/?p=639

smd wrote:

To me the most astounding thing about Rahm is that he has convinced not just himself but others, and that if you try to introduce reality to the scene, then you're the bad guy. Check out the comments to this post.

http://wpblogs.runningtimes.com/blogs/talktest/?p=639

What kind of neurotoxins do they put in the drinking water wherever Jason Rahm lives? The shit's predictable: "He's hard-working!" "He's a great guy!" "How dare you accuse him of doping?" (You didn't actually accuse him of the latter, but why quibble?) Then the inevitable ad hominems about living in your parents' basement, etc.

Everything his fellow delusionals have said about him may well be true. He's a swell guy and never even takes Advil! Great. But none of that has a damned thing to do with the fact that he stands zero chance of making the Trials and just as little of even breaking 2:30:00. Some wizard seemed to think that the fact that his first-ever 800 was allegedly around 3:30 is a GOOD sign. No, it's not. His progress since that day is predictable and unremarkable and his employer is wonderfully, shiningly ignorant.

I read comments like the ones to this blog post and better understand how Christine O'Donnell can get more than seventeen votes in all of Delaware, but beyond that I come away feeling markedly less optimistic about humankind's potential. This Nate character must walk into at least three walls before successfully leaving a room with only one door.

he's clean. I know.

If he makes the trials I will retire from these boards

(Safest bet I have ever made)

This should be a poll question...

predict Jason's time

DNF

3:15+

2:45-3:15

2:30-2:45

2:30-

"Also, if you get the right kind of sunglasses, you can look really hardcore and serious. But, how can you know if you’re serious and focused if you can’t see your eyes?

Therein lies the reason why I don’t run with sunglasses. When the race pictures come back, I look at each and every one to see the look in my eyes. Ideally, I have a focused, determined expression. Sometimes I’ll look tired or like I’m struggling, which is an understandable expression, especially if it is late in a marathon."

"if you can't see your eyes" lol wtf he freaks me out. this is a sociopath right there

NOT A SOCIOPATH. JUST DELUDED AT FIRST AND THEN WHEN REALITY HIT HE FIGURED HE WOULD KEEP MILKING IT BECAUSE HEY SOME WOULD RATHER BE LAUGHED AT THAN IGNORED OUTRIGHT.

OK

Look guys, I went from 2:44 in 1989 to 2:23 in about a year and a half, and then later qualified for the trials with 2:18.

If I can knock 26 minutes off my PR, then this "other Jason" can do it too.

Give a guy a break for once.

Jason

I think the most incredible part of your achievement is that you dropped that much time without 666 energy drink.

OMR wrote:

I think the most incredible part of your achievement is that you dropped that much time without 666 energy drink.

Believe me, I am amazed as well!!! I'd probably run 2:02 for the marathon by now if I had 666 Energy Drink about 8 years ago.

Tell us, did you run 18-flat for 5k from 1989 on?

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot wrote:

Tell us, did you run 18-flat for 5k from 1989 on?

Not exactly, but the type of fitness needed for a marathon is a bit different than you need for the marathon. Even the esteemed Mr. Canova will admit this. There are 2:06 marathoners out there (for example Atsushi Fujita) who have not run under 14 for 5km.

Here's my point: Let's be supportive of each other's goals and aspirations, and not poo-poo them all the time. I can remember the first time I was timed for a mile in PE class in the 7th grade, it was 9;47, yes for ONE mile not two. In the 6th grade I could not even jog slowly for a mile without stopping.

Jason M: There are 2:06 marathoners out there (for example Atsushi Fujita) who have not run under 14 for 5km.

Fujita ran his 5000m PR (14:05) in 1997. No other recorded attempts at 5000m before he moved on to the 10,000m and the marathon. He ran 28:19 and 2:06:51 less than three years later. Are you trying to tell me that you believe he wouldn't have cracked 14 minutes in the 5000m as a 28:19 10,000m runner? Get real. He didn't crack 14 because he didn't care enough to try, not because it wasn't possible.

Let's compare the pacing in relative terms of your two examples: Atsushi Fujita and Jason Rahm. This should show us how much Jason Rahm could be expected to improve his marathon time, assuming he is equally more talented at the marathon distance versus the 5000m as you contend (which isn't even accurate, as stated above). Jason claims a 15:47 5K PR, which appears to be from a track 5000m race in college.

Fujita -> 14:05 -> 2:06:51 = 106.73% difference in pace/mi

Fujita (more accurately) -> 28:19 -> 2:06:51 = 106.17%

Rahm -> 15:47 -> 2:22:04 = 106.73% difference in pace/mi

So, even if you spot Jason Rahm some unrealistic numbers from a clear outlier in terms of relative performance (Fujita), he still comes up over three minutes short of even qualifying for the trials, let alone making the Olympic team.

Let's throw him another bone and say that 2:14:59 makes the team (which, conveniently, is a time you have to run to be allowed to run in the Olympic marathon). At an absolute minimum, Jason Rahm would have to run seven minutes and five seconds faster than a time that is already over 24 minutes faster than his personal best.

This isn't hate. It's reason. It's logic.

And 15 years later, you could run 26+ miles without stopping at 5:27 pace. Fifteen years later, Jason Rahm can't run 6:20 pace for the same distance. He's not improving! Why can't you people get that through your heads? 15:47 is not a bad 5000m time. It's a good start. But that wasn't his start--it was his finish. He has not improved since then. A marathon time relative to his 15:47 on a "normal" curve would be around 2:33. His current PR is 2:46:26. If you want to take a massive outlier like Fujita, I'll even spot you the 2:22 calculated above. He's still not even close.

Not only is it mathematically improbable, it's clearly physically improbable. Jason is getting hurt while doing 2/3 of the mileage he is talking about doing. He's done a few 80+ mile weeks, but he's gotten hurt doing them. He talks about 100+ mile weeks, but never quite does them. He's indicated over and over again that he is not durable enough to do the training it will take to improve to a 2:15, let alone to do the training at the speeds necessary to maintain that pace for 26.2 miles.

Like I said, I don't wish him ill. I just wish he'd stop talking and start doing.

pass the popcorn

Race day tomorrow!!!

Hope the guy gets a PR. No reason to be hating on a fellow runner and human for having dreams