progressor wrote:
I don't think you get it at all. Almost everyone has a big breakthrough at some point. Worth-Thomas going from 4:24 to 4:10 over two years in college would be a good example. That seems normal.
It's when those big breakthroughs happen at an advanced age, after years of small or sometimes no progressions (suggesting that the person has nearly reached their potential) that it gets suspicious.
Teg's huge breakthrough came the year after he left the NCAA system. Ulrey is still in college. Barringer has improved by leaps and bounds every year. It's just different.
OK - Jen Rhines
2007 4:09.52 Carson, CA 20/05/2007 **11 second PR @ age 33
2000 4:20.17 Raleigh, NC 17/06/2000
2007 8:35.03 Monaco 25/07/2007 **20 second PR @ age 33
2006 9:09.30 Luzern 06/07/2006
2005 8:56.07 New York, NY 11/06/2005
2003 9:06.77 Brunswick, ME 05/07/2003
2002 9:05.90 Sheffield 30/06/2002
2001 8:55.28 Portland, OR 03/06/2001
2000 8:50.72 Linz 08/08/2000
1999 9:01.16 Lappeenranta 25/07/1999
1997 9:15.21 Eugene, OR 25/05/1997
2006 14:55.18 Bruxelles 25/08/2006 **17 second PR @ age 32
2005 15:12.39 Stockholm 26/07/2005
2004 15:19.15 Sacramento, CA 12/07/2004
2002 15:13.44 Stockholm 16/07/2002
2001 15:13.26 Oslo 13/07/2001
2000 15:19.88 Stockholm 01/08/2000
1999 15:25.52 Stockholm 30/07/1999
1998 15:26.88 Montréal 10/07/1998
2007 31:17.31 Palo Alto, CA 29/04/2007 **7 seconds at age 33
2006 31:24.16 Helsinki 26/07/2006
2005 31:26.66 Helsinki 06/08/2005 **15 seconds @ age 31
2002 31:41.16 Palo Alto, CA 03/05/2002 **17 seconds @ age 28
2001 32:20.03 Eugene, OR 23/06/2001
2000 31:58.34 Sacramento, CA 14/07/2000 **31 seconds @ age 23
1999 32:29.67 Eugene, OR 26/06/1999
-----------------------------------------------------
DEENA KASTOR
2007 14:52.21 Stockholm 07/08/2007 **less than 1 second off lifetime PR @ age 34
2003 15:08.14 London 08/08/2003
2002 15:13.93 Palo Alto, CA 22/06/2002
2001 15:08.02 Stockholm 17/07/2001
2000 14:51.62 Stockholm 01/08/2000 **5 seconds @ age 27
1999 14:56.84 Stockholm 30/07/1999 **9 seconds @ age 26
1998 15:07.83 Stockholm 05/08/1998
2002 30:50.32 Palo Alto, CA 03/05/2002 **60 seconds @ age 29
2001 32:05.14 Eugene, OR 23/06/2001
2000 31:51.05 Sacramento, CA 14/07/2000
1999 32:00.72 Eugene, OR 26/06/1999
2008 2:29:35 Boston, MA 20/04/2008 **5.5 minute Boston PR at 35
2007 2:35:09 Boston, MA 16/04/2007
2006 2:19:36 London 23/04/2006 **1:40 London PR at 33
2005 2:21:25 Chicago, IL 09/10/2005
2004 2:27:20 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 22/08/2004
2003 2:21:16 London 13/04/2003