in my opinion every athlete with a range of 1.44/800m and a 3.33/1500m has a shot to medal at a championship at the 3 3quarter laps ...but well that's just a personal opinion. For sure that's not changing that probably Alan and Ryan are the ones most likely to challenge the Africans ...but I'd also be interested in a serious 1500m of Andrew Wheating in maybe 3 or 4years. Anyway that's still in the future.
But what has been in the past is the fact that I had the opportunity to train with some Sudanese guys for a couple of days in February of 2008. At the end of that period they were racing an 800 and one of those guys was clocking a 1.46low while another taller one was struggeling running a 1.52. Well the faster one (Kaki Kamis Abubaker) was running a 1000m world junior record 3weeks later. While the guys were cooling down I was talking to their coach asking what happened to the other one and he simply explained that he is having some mental problems, but he is happy that he is keeping up his hard work at training and thinks that's paying off one day. Well, six months later Ismael Ahmed Ismael became silver medaillist in Beijing while Kaki didn't make the final. What I want to metion is that there are many more things depending on a performance than just pure physiological shape.
Therefore if you want Alan to achieve greater things on track don't put him on extra pressure ...be happy and thankful about the fact that he is giving everything to challenge the Africans, but don't blame him if there should be guys being faster (as they are also talented and work their ass off to win).